As a university student in the 1970s, Michael Yabsley’s first job was in the pokies room of the Lismore Workers Club, where he brought drinks to the “little old ladies” putting cash into the machines.
“I’ll never forget the briefing when I started,” he told the Guardian this week.
“It lasted for about two minutes, and he said ‘the aim is to make sure no patron’s glass is ever empty, because if they leave the machine to get a drink it’s likely to break their concentration, and they may not go back to the machine’.”
Yabsley, who later became a minister in Nick Greiner’s New South Wales Liberal government in the 1980s and 90s, has been thinking about that first job as premier Dominic Perrottet has mounted his push for gambling reform in the state. In particular, Yabsley has wondered what it says about how voters might respond.
“I think it’s a roll of the dice, so to speak, because it does tread on the toes of those for whom gambling – and poker machines – specifically are a form of entertainment. But that being said, I think there is a more broad acceptance in the public now about gambling doing real harm to the community,” he said.
As NSW prepares to head to the polls on 25 March, Perrottet’s commitment to cashless gaming has dominated headlines and the oxygen of the nascent campaign. It has put pressure on the opposition Labor party – which has only committed to trialing the technology – and helped the premier craft an image as a leader with the conviction to take on powerful vested interests such as the clubs lobby.
“Politics,” he said, when asked this week why no other government in NSW had previously been willing to pursue gambling reform.
While Perrottet’s convictions seem sincere, there is also a sense that, as the leader of a party trailing in the polls, dogged by integrity scandals, and asking for a rarely granted fourth term in government, it is also smart politics.
As one Labor MP told the Guardian this week: “Perrottet all of a sudden looks like the big, brave integrity politician while we’re the same old shady Labor, yet he’s the one who … [knew about the New York appointment of John] Barilaro … who helped allow a second casino in Sydney. It’s spin. Good spin, but spin.”
But will it change any votes? The Coalition is in tricky territory heading into the vote. While some recent polls show Perrottet remains preferred premier, the government has trailed Labor by as much as 56% to 44% on a two-party preferred basis. If such a vote was replicated on election day, Labor would win a majority.
Election analysts, though, caution that Labor’s path to victory is not simple. In order to govern in a majority, it would need to win nine seats from the Coalition in the 93-seat chamber. It’s not an impossible task, but would require a uniform swing of about 6%.
As election analyst Kevin Bonham told the Guardian: “On paper it’s just a lot of seats for Labor to get a majority. And they’re polling well enough to do it at the moment but not with a lot of room to move.”
As always in state elections, western Sydney will be key. Coalition seats on margins of less than 1% include East Hills and Penrith, but Labor is also hopeful in Winston Hills, Riverstone, Parramatta and even Camden (5.4%, 6.2%, 6.2% and 7.4% respectively).
“That’s interesting because at recent elections the Liberals have generally held up OK in outer suburbia and are getting crunched in inner suburbia,” Bonham says.
“That may not be the case in this campaign because the pokies issue cuts across that. [Perrottet’s cashless gaming card] is appealing more to the socially conscious inner-city voter and maybe it arouses a bit of opposition in more working-class areas.”
Ben Raue, an election analyst who runs the Tally Room, said while he thought Labor’s prospects were “quite good”, there was also a large possibility that the vote could end in a hung parliament and a “rickety” government of either persuasion.
“There’s a few tranches of seats and if Labor can only pick up that first tranche of about four seats including say East Hills, Penrith, Upper Hunter [0.6%] and Goulburn [3.1%], it’s sort of maximum chaos because both sides are a fair way from a majority and have to haggle with what looks like it will be a very large crossbench,” he said.
But with the Coalition already effectively governing in minority, the question is can it do enough to keep hold of those ultra-marginal seats even after 12 years in power. As Bonham says, history certainly isn’t on its side. “It’s rare for a state government to get a fourth term, and this government has almost no room to move,” he said.
Kerry Chikarovski, who led the NSW Liberal party while in opposition between 1998 and 2002, said to buck that trend, the government would have to remind voters of its record.
“What they will be saying to the community is, yes we may have been here a long time but we’ve been incredibly busy in that time. The massive infrastructure build in those 12 years, the roads, rail, light rail, the schools and hospitals,” she said.
Chikarovki also believed Perrottet’s leadership on the pokies issue could prove to be a potent play for the government, and said comments by the now-former ClubsNSW boss Josh Landis about the premier’s faith had helped bring it to the fore.
“That made a whole lot of people who might not have been taking much notice, pay attention,” she said.
“People have thoughts on what sort of leader they want and if the premier is being criticised as a man of values, a lot of people would say, ‘hold on that’s something I support’.”
While the government has been busy redefining itself, Labor under Chris Minns has played a much safer game: seeking to focus on cost-of-living issues with policies such as expanded stamp duty exemptions, and promises to boost funding for health and education. While Labor has been criticised for not offering a more inspiring platform, Raue said that may not matter.
“I don’t think they’re really giving people much reason to vote for them but I’m also not sure they need to in a situation where maybe you have just enough to limp over the line,” he said.
“You don’t need to give people a reason ultimately if the other side annoys enough people. Minns is presenting as competent and serious, he gives an air of being up to the job.”
Chikarovki too thought he’d been impressive as Labor leader, saying his “cautious” strategy had played well during an era that included the pandemic.
“Whether being a small target will get him over the line I’m not sure,” she said.
Yabsley drew a parallel with the 1988 election which saw the Coalition sweep to power after 12 years of Labor rule.
“There are two really clear-cut analogies: one is that we had a leader emerge who was capable of breaking the drought,” he said.
“There was a conga line of Liberal leaders before Nick Greiner who had just failed to cut through and I think it’s possibly similar with Chris Minns. He has had a degree of traction [and] been fairly impressive, I think, as a performer.”
The other, he said, was the length of time the Coalition has been in power.
“It’s just awfully hard, when you’ve been in power that long – had the scandals and the baggage and all of that – to convince people that it isn’t time for a change.”
