All season long, the Los Angeles Clippers have been a respectable team — boasting a record of 21-17 and sitting sixth in the unforgiving Western Conference. However, their hopes of being anything more than first-round fodder hinge on the health and wellness of their franchise centerpiece, Kawhi Leonard.
After missing the first 33 games to rehabilitate the right knee that has given him trouble throughout his career, Leonard is back in the mix. But how good has he looked since returning from injury?
At a glance, 8.3 points on 40.6 percent true shooting doesn’t seem great. But you can’t expect a player working back into shape to look like the star they were prior to injury — especially when the team is using his first 5-6 games back as a pseudo preseason. All you can hope for are glimpses, glimpses of the player who once took two different franchises over the finish line for championships.
Offense
Like we mentioned, Leonard’s offensive numbers haven’t been dazzling. Fortunately, however, his trusty jumper appears to still be with him. Leonard has converted on 6 of the 13 of the threes he’s taken since returning (38.5 percent), which is right in line with his career average of 39.1 percent.
Leonard’s midrange hasn’t been falling (30 percent) the way we are accustomed to seeing (50.1 percent last season, per Dunks & Threes). But the early returns on that front are promising, at least process-wise.
When it comes to jump shooting, certain types of misses are better than others. When a player misses left or right, it is a sign of accuracy issues. Meanwhile, a miss too short or too strong has more to do with how much power someone is putting into their shot. In general, it is easier to remedy a power problem in a jumper than an accuracy one.
Of Leonard’s 15 missed jumpers (midrange and threes), over half (eight) have missed because they were too short. This likely means that he’s still trying to get his legs back after not playing competitive basketball for nearly nine months.
Unfortunately, Leonard’s rim finishing woes aren’t as easily excusable. He’s shooting just 25 percent on shots at the rim (2-for-8). That’s already not great to hear, and a quick peak at the tape makes it worse. Leonard’s only two successful rim finishes have been in transition, meaning he doesn’t have a single successful rim finish in the half-court.
Leonard has never been someone who lives in the paint. His highest rim frequency since joining the Clippers only had him in the 62nd percentile league-wide (five rim attempts per 75 possessions), which was during his first season with the team in 2019-20. But he’s always been an accurate finisher when he does attack the basket.
A big way he remains efficient as a scorer without taking a high volume of shots at the rim is by getting to the free throw line. So far, he’s not flashed the same knack for unlocking the sport’s most valuable shot — only drawing one shooting foul in three games (on a 3-point attempt against the Atlanta Hawks).
Defense
Leonard earned the moniker The Klaw by using his destructive hands to end possessions before a shot attempt could even be registered on the box score. Judging from the early returns, it seems like countless knee injuries haven’t deprived him of his greatest defensive superpower.
Look at this clip where Leonard, to steal a bar from the great Mark Jones, takes poor Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s cornbread, leading to a Norman Powell transition triple:
Or this one, where he turns this dribble handoff into an interception (we’d say pick six, but he smoked the layup):
Leonard already has four steals and four deflections since his return to duty, per NBA.com. Even in his ramp up stage, it is clear he can still be a great defensive playmaker for a Clippers team ranking fifth in opponent turnover rate, despite Leonard hardly playing this season.
He still has his lapses in focus when he’s not directly involved in the action — something that has followed him throughout his career — and his on-ball defense has looked lethargic, particularly against slipperier guards. But on this specific roster, one loaded with strong point-of-attack and off-ball defenders who can do his dirty work, those concerns are minor.
Leonard’s Herculean strength gives the Clippers’ defense another layer of matchup versatility. He is strong enough to guard most NBA centers. So, when a team has a center who can stretch the floor, the Clippers can put Leonard on them, and let Ivica Zubac guard a less lethal shooter, which enables him to stay closer to the paint.
We saw this strategy deployed for parts of their recent game against the Miami Heat, where Leonard would guard Kevin Love (36.2 percent 3-point shooter) while Zubac would shadow Jaquez (29.2 percent).
The Bottom Line
With Leonard, the biggest variables to monitor moving forward are his assertiveness generating free throws and converting contested shots around the rim. His outside shooting, size/strength and deadly hands are enough to make him a borderline All-Star-caliber player once he gets his sea legs back.
But returning to the ranks as a top-10 player — which the Clippers will need for any legitimate chance at an NBA title — demands he re-emerge as an elite finisher and foul-drawer.
