Through the first act of the college basketball season, no freshman has produced at a higher level than Dylan Harper. The Rutgers point blends scoring explosions, playmaking goodness and defensive chops to impact winning at all levels. There’s an argument to be made for Harper as one of the best players in the country.
The 6’6, bruising point guard sits near the top of a stacked 2025 draft. Cooper Flagg’s play has been excellent as advertised. Outside of Flagg, Harper looks to be pulling away as the clear second-best prospect in the class. Some scouts will have Harper over Flagg, valuing his offensive traits highly.
Harper’s elite driving game
Harper’s downhill attack fuels his elite prospect status. Few college defenders can handle a guard as tall and strong as Harper, especially given his skill level. Through his first eight games, Harper has lived at the basket. In the half-court, Harper finishes an efficient 67.3% of his shots so far (33/49).
dylan harper’s easy paint touch creation is the primary driver of his top 2 prospect value. has been impossible to keep from the bucket so far
49% half court rim frequency at a 67.3% clip is absurd pic.twitter.com/mbldoiieZs
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 4, 2024
According to Synergy, an enormous 49% of his half-court shots come at the basket. For comparison, that’s a higher rim frequency than Ja Morant (43.3%), De’Aaron Fox (39.3%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (39.1%) posted in their final college seasons.
Despite an uptick in competition level, Harper pressures the basket at a higher frequency than ever before. His current rim frequency to begin this season (49%) is higher than his half-court rim frequency during his final high school season (38.6%) and final AAU season (39.8%).
It’s reasonable to question the sustainability of Harper’s paint pressure. Even if Harper sees a significant reduction, he’ll still reach the upper echelon of driving prospects. To this point, he’s had little trouble burning past defenders with his first step, which had been a slight concern before his time in college.
When Harper makes his way into the paint, he’s nearly impossible to stop. I can’t remember many teenage guards with the strength, craft and poise Harper displays at the hoop. His strength allows Harper to maintain a straight line to the hoop as defenders can’t round off his angle with bumps and shoves.
Harper’s offensive profile stands out
Harper’s finishing numbers are stellar to this point, but there may be some regression at the next level given his lack of vertical explosion. Harper boasts excellent balance, touch and coordination at the rim but his shot diet isn’t the easiest.
Outside of the paint, Harper hasn’t been as effective a scorer. He’s made just 10 of his 35 3-point attempts (28.6%). During his final high school and AAU seasons, Harper made 33.3% of his triples (55/165). These percentages aren’t stellar, but raw efficiency is often a misleading indicator of shooting potential given how long it takes to stabilize.
His volume is quite solid, pulling 7.2 threes per 100 possessions even with his enormous paint presence. He’s nailing his free throws so far (79.3%) and his touch around the rim bodes well for future shooting growth. Harper hasn’t been effective from mid-range yet (7/31 on far twos, per Bart Torvik) but he’s shown positive ability to create and score in the intermediate in the past.
Usage rates can help us decipher which players can handle the transition to NBA pressure and Harper passes that test with flying colors. He’s currently sitting at a huge 31.1% usage rate and an identical 31.1% assist rate. Rutgers asks Harper to run their offense, score at a primary level and create for others and he does it all.
Despite Harper’s enormous offensive responsibility, he takes care of the ball like a veteran, sporting an elite 2.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. Harper is one of two freshmen this season with a usage and assist rate above 30 and an assist-to-turnover ratio over one, the other being Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears. Very few freshmen have achieved those statistical benchmarks.
these are the freshmen with assist and usage rates over 30 and an a:to over 1, sorted by a:to (since 2008). pretty impressive company for harper and fears pic.twitter.com/CV61SdSeyJ
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 4, 2024
Dylan Harper’s NBA Draft outlook
Can Dylan Harper usurp Cooper Flagg as the top pick in the 2025 draft? His upside as a primary offensive option might be a bit higher than Flagg’s given his elite driving and playmaking. But similar to Flagg, he’s also struggled from beyond the arc.
Flagg’s elite physical tools, feel for the game and scoring upside might be too much for Harper to overcome. Some teams needy for lead guards may see the Harper fit as too enticing to pass on high in the draft. Teams like Washington, Toronto or Utah could view Harper as their primary point guard of the future.
Regardless of where Harper stacks up in this draft, he’s proving himself an elite college player and an elite NBA prospect. If he can continue to bend defenses and create advantages as he is now, his ceiling looks incredibly high. Guards of his size, skill level and athletic tools often develop into stars and Harper may be next in line.
