2022 went as well as the New York Giants could have hoped. First year head coach Brian Daboll found a way to turn a chest of broken toys into an army.
Saquon Barkley stayed healthy and proved he could be a workhorse running back. Daniel Jones dialed back his average throw distance and upped his efficiency. A flawed defense came together near the end zone and a season with few expectations extended to a Wild Card win in Minneapolis before a blowout loss to the Super Bowl bound Philadelphia Eagles ended things.
2023 looked more like we’d expected, in unexpected ways. Jones reverted back to “surprised baby giraffe” form while going 1-5 as a starter before tearing his ACL. The lack of a passing game and weakened offensive line meant Barkley had nowhere to run; his yards per carry dropped from 4.4 to 3.9, but his 93 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were a top 10 mark. Daboll feuded with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and New York’s defense was great at creating turnovers but little else.
The Giants went 6-11. Only the wallowing crapulence of the Washington Commanders kept them from sliding to the bottom of the NFC East. That’s also enough to keep them from the cupcake-heavy schedule that helped boost the team’s 2022 winning campaign. New York’s win total is currently set at 6.5 and its playoff odds sit at a healthy +400, per Draft Kings.
Let’s talk about how reasonable those expectations are.
Daniel Jones’ future in New York depends squarely on his 2024
Jones is at the precipice of an enormous crossroad for his second time as a New York Giant. With his rookie contract set to expire, he rose up and outdueled Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings for a Wild Card win. The following offseason, the Giants offered him a four year, $160 million extension with $82 million guaranteed. At the same time, they only franchise tagged Barkley, the running back endemic to Jones’ 2022 success.
That extension wasn’t cheap, but it can effectively be a two-year deal (with a reasonable dead cap number) if the team finds it necessary to jettison its former franchise QB. And Jones’ 2023 play was worthy of being set off on an ice floe.
While his completion rate rose, the negative play concerns that plagued him pre-2022 returned. He threw six interceptions in six games — a career-worst 3.8 percent pick rate — was sacked on nearly 16 percent of his dropbacks and fumbled four times (though, to his credit, he only lost one of those). He roasted the undermanned Arizona Cardinals en route to 321 yards and a pair of touchdown passes in Week 2. Otherwise, he failed to throw for more than 203 yards or find the end zone through the air in any of his other games.
Daniel Jones’ pick six may have given us the best Manningcast shot ever pic.twitter.com/y2itZaIFD8
— David Dwork (@DavidDwork) October 3, 2023
I know the video above isn’t great quality but please do give it a click if you’d like to see both famous Manning brothers reflexively throw up surrender cobras at the very moment Jones destroys the Giants’ scoring hopes.
These are all indicators of terrible play exacerbated by a quarterback coming back from injury and dealing with the loss of his bell cow tailback; Barkley, failing to find a long term contract in New York, instead signed with the Philadelphia Eagles because the football gods’ capacity for cruelty is unmatched. He’ll be replaced by Devin Singletary, who is capable of being a slightly above average runner in the right situation (i.e. one with a better offensive line than the Giants’) and rookie Tyrone Tracy except, whoops, Tracy was carted out of a preseason practice with a non-contact leg injury because, well, see above about the football gods (in fairness, Tracy seems to be better than his injury first appeared).
But Jones may be able to… well, not thrive per se, but match the statistically average heights of his 2022. No. 5 overall draft pick Malik Nabers already looks like a nightmare matchup for any cornerback in one-on-one coverage. Darius Slayton no longer has to deal with the pressure of being the team’s top wideout (a role in which he exceeded expectations) and can get back to the downfield routes where he’s most effective. The offensive line is still a concern, but signing veterans Jon Runyan Jr., Jermaine Eluemunor and Greg Van Roten will at the very least provide a higher floor of play while giving disappointing former first round pick Evan Neal a chance to reset and find his place in the NFL.
So what should we expect? Jones thrived with an average throw distance that dropped to a career low 6.4 yards downfield in ’22. That moved slightly to 6.8 last fall, but in both cases he had a stronger run game and weaker receiving corps, at least on paper, than he’ll have this fall. Nabers feels like the kind of player you can chuck it towards and hope he’ll come down with it, but he’s also a rookie whose camp highlights have come against a secondary with little name recognition. Further complicating matters is the fact no tight end on the roster has ever topped 300 receiving yards in a season.
It feels like the formula that worked in 2022 won’t be as successful this fall. Jones will have to prove he can make the kind of difficult throws he’s struggled with in his career to date. And if that goes the way most reasonable fans would expect, it’s going to put pressure on a young defense with several nice parts but little cohesive impact thus far.
If some prospects pull through, the Giants have the defense to overcome whatever their offense throws at them
This offseason’s marquee addition was Brian Burns, who arrived in New York at a far lower trade cost than many of us expected the Carolina Panthers to glean in return for their best starter. He gets to pair with Kayvon Thibodeaux to create a genuinely frightening edge rush. Add in Dexter Lawrence over center — fresh off back-to-back All-Pro selections — and you’ve got the elements of a chaos-creating front.
Where New York needs to prove its worth is behind that group (though, admittedly, the line spots next to Lawrence leave room for improvement as well). Bobby Okereke is rock solid as an inside linebacker. First round rookie Deonte Banks gave up just a 79.6 passer rating when targeted in his debut season. This all served to help a unit that was above average against the pass in 2023 despite ranking 26th in points allowed.
But Xavier McKinney departed in free agency for the Green Bay Packers. The secondary around Banks will be populated by guys like Cordale Flott, Dane Belton, Dru Phillips, Tyler Nubin, Jason Pinnock, Isaiah Simmons and Tre Hawkins. There’s talent there — Simmons was a former first round selection while Flott, Phillips and Nubin were each selected on Day 2 in 2022 or later — but that potential hasn’t quite solidified on Sundays.
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How that young defense plays will be the key behind whether or not Daboll can even approach the success of his debut season. The man tasked with fostering that development is new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, who spent the last three years designing the Tennessee Titans’ defense. Under Bowen, Tennessee ranked 10th in expected points added (EPA) allowed in 2021, 21st in 2022 and 28th in 2023 before being ushered out the door alongside Mike Vrabel this offseason.
So, not ideal!
But New York has exceeded expectations in the past. Not grand ones, mind you, but this remains a team capable of surprises. Jones can operate inside a specific offense, one that has shrunk in some capacity without Barkley but expanded in another thanks to Nabers’s arrival. Burns and Thibodeaux can create the kind of pressure that makes life easier for all the young guys in the secondary. Squint, and you can see how this team slides into postseason consideration.
If that doesn’t pan out, well, a trip to the top of the draft order to find Jones’ replacement works, too.
