No player has missed as many games as Connor Bedard is set to miss and still won the Calder Trophy in at least 47 years.
That’s a sobering stat for the Blackhawks and Bedard, who previously seemed like a lock to be the NHL’s rookie of the year before fracturing his jaw last week against the Devils.
The 18-year-old star underwent surgery Monday and was declared out for six-to-eight weeks, a slightly longer timeline than the expected four-to-six weeks. Hawks coach Luke Richardson said team physician Dr. Michael Terry was being “precautionary for a young guy” with that estimate.
“If it’s earlier, great,” Richardson said. “But I think that’s probably a normal timeline for what they were thinking.”
Hawks trainers and chefs — and Bedard’s mom — will work closely with him to provide emotional support and medical and dietary guidance, considering his mouth movement will be restricted. Since the rest of his body won’t be affected, he will graduate fairly soon to biking in the gym and then skating on the ice.
Based on that estimated timeline, his return will likely fall within the window of Feb. 19 to March 4. If he returns Feb. 19 against the Hurricanes, he will have missed 16 total games. If he returns March 4 against the Avalanche, he will have missed 22 games. He could obviously also return sometime in the middle, or even possibly before or after.
So what are Bedard’s chances of coming back, finishing the season strong and earning the Calder in spite of this midseason absence?
On one hand, it’s rare for rookies to take home the honor after missing significant time. None have done so after missing 16 or more games since Atlanta Flames forward Willi Plett in 1976-77.
Times have changed in terms of how much time players miss due to injuries, though, with science and doctors’ advice overruling hockey’s toughness culture more and more often. After all, Hawks forward Bobby Hull broke his jaw in 1968-69 and missed only one game; that would never be allowed today.
There have been several recent instances of players missing double-digit games (albeit fewer than 16) and still winning the Calder. Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar played in 57 out of 70 games in 2019-20 and won; Canucks forward Elias Pettersson played in 71 out of 82 games in 2018-19 and won.
Ultimately, it will come down to point production — and Bedard might still have an edge there.
With 33 points in 37 games before his injury, the Vancouver native was averaging nearly a point per game. Assuming he maintains the same pace upon returning — and doesn’t get injured again — he would finish with 56 points in 66 games if he returned Feb. 19. (If he returned March 4, he would finish with 50 points in 60 games.)
Wild forward Marco Rossi, Devils defenseman Luke Hughes, Flames forward Connor Zary and Blue Jackets forward Adam Fantilli are his top competitors in terms of scoring. Rossi and Hughes are on pace to finish with 50 points each, compared to Zary with 49 and Fantilli with 47, if none miss any games from here out.
The wild card — pun intended — is Wild defenseman Brock Faber, who is on pace for only 40 points but has been excellent defensively, adding a less quantifiable factor to the equation.
Even if Bedard and another rookie end up roughly neck-in-neck in terms of total points, Bedard likely would still be favored given the fact he got there in fewer games, produced his points with limited support on the Hawks’ weak roster, pulled off a highlight-reel “Michigan goal” and carries massive name recognition and popularity.
But his Calder victory is certainly less guaranteed than it used to be — and any further injuries could seriously derail it. He and the Hawks will both be hoping he can return as quickly as his jaw safely allows.
