The start of the Giro d’Italia is just five weeks away, but it already looks set to become a two-way scrap between Primož Roglič and Juan Ayuso, a clash of two of the sport’s biggest teams, UAE Team Emirates-XRG and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. Tadej Pogačar’s absence from the startlist has opened the door to a range of different riders looking to contest the race. However, Roglič and Ayuso are already pulling away from the competition after both making an exceptional start to the year.
The latter may have started his season later than the Slovenian, although he has already got 17 race days in the legs compared to Roglič’s 12 days of competition, picking up victories in both the Faun Drome Classic and Trofeo Laigueglia before sealing the overall win at Tirreno-Adriatico.
On paper, his start to the new campaign is impressive, particularly as that was then followed up with a second overall finish, victory in the youth classification and an individual stage win at the Volta a Catalunya. But Roglič, who is 13 years his senior, seemingly holds the upper hand and will have the cutting edge once the race gets underway as he goes in search of a second Giro title.
While he will have been undoubtedly disappointed with his low key start in Portugal, Roglič’s form coming out of Catalunya appears to be razor sharp and was underscored by his dominant performance on the final stage into Barcelona which he won convincingly to seal his overall triumph.
It is worth mentioning that Roglič emphatically winning week long stage races is nothing new - he has won 12 since beginning his career almost ten years ago - but his performance in Catalunya was a statement of intent and proof that despite being 35 he still has what it takes to dominate and perform at the highest level for a while longer yet.
It would have been easy to speculate and cast doubt on his ambitions for the Giro after he was bested by Ayuso on stage three at La Molina. The Slovenian simply never loses an uphill sprint, so much so that his trademark race-winning attack gained a name - Roglification. Many of the best GC riders currently competing on the men’s WorldTour have fallen afoul of such a move, although Ayuso took on the master at his own game in Catalunya.
Roglič’s final day showing blended tactical nous, outright force and clever race craft as he attacked from range to seal the win after hoovering up some of the mid-race bonus seconds on offer. "I had to do something. I always say that Catalunya is an honest race where the legs are talking. But I really didn't have a great feeling until the last stage," Roglič said afterwards before going on to warn that he felt the result "doesn't really influence the outcome of the Giro".
That may be so, but try telling that to the likes of Egan Bernal, Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz, three riders who will all be hoping to compete in Italy but who all finished more than a minute down on yours truly.
Anything can happen in the Corsa Rosa and the race can suddenly turn on its head - as proved by Chris Froome in 2018 - but recent showings have proved that Yates, Carapaz, Bernal, and the best of the rest are going to have their work cut out to get on the podium, let alone the top step which seems to be reserved for the two main protagonists in Spain.
Make no mistake, Roglič has the experience that age provides on his side, but Ayuso possesses the innocence of youth and, similarly to his famous UAE teammate, a burning desire to make a permanent mark on cycling by securing his first-ever Grand Tour victory.
The answer then, to "can anyone stop Primož Roglič or Juan Ayuso from winning the Giro d’Italia?", seems simple right now - probably not.
