The 49ers are heavy favorites on the road in Carolina on Sunday, and they probably should be. Tipico Sportsbook has them favored by 6.5 points despite a cross country trip on a short week after Monday Night Football.
That’s probably about the right number. Carolina’s offense is one of the NFL’s worst, ranking 31st in offensive DVOA per Pro Football Outsiders. Pick any offensive metric though and the Panthers are at or near the bottom of the league.
Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense is No. 1 in defensive DVOA and at or near the top of virtually any metric that measures total defense. There’s a very easy scenario to envision where the Panthers simply can’t move the ball effectively for most of Sunday’s game and the 49ers offense puts up a couple scores and they cover easily.
On the other hand, it’s not a slam dunk that the 49ers’ offense will move the ball against Carolina. While the Panthers have had their offensive issues this season, their defense has mostly been okay behind star pass rusher Brian Burns.
The version of the 49ers offense we’ve seen the last two weeks hasn’t been particularly inspiring, and now they’re starting third-string left tackle Jaylon Moore. Uneven offensive performances make it easy to also envision a scenario where San Francisco’s offense looks something like it did in Denver or through most of the second half against the Rams.
Ultimately the matchup to watch is the 49ers’ defense against Carolina’s offense. Even if San Francisco struggles some offensively, a combination of defensive takeaways and a couple of explosive plays by the offense should allow them to comfortably outscore whatever it is the defense gives up.
There’s also the world where the 49ers offense hits its stride after a couple of early-season hiccups and they roll Carolina by multiple touchdowns.
Either way, there are more outcomes where the 49ers cover the 6.5 than outcomes where they don’t. Even if a full touchdown feels like a lot for a struggling offense, it’s probably the safe pick this week.
