Two weeks from the New Zealand election, Chris Hipkins is in a bind.
History is not on the side of his bid to earn New Zealand Labour a third term in office at the October 14 poll, and he knows the electorate wants change.
No New Zealand prime minister has ever won an election after inheriting the job mid-term but that's Mr Hipkins' challenge after taking over from Jacinda Ardern in January.
Voters were initially kind to "Chippy," the upbeat and down-to-earth former COVID-19 minister known for his love of sausage rolls.
Polls gave Mr Hipkins a small bounce after taking office.
New Zealanders were keen to give him a go.
However, a succession of ministerial departures and a doggedly tough economic environment are counting against Labour.
Cost of living is the number one election issue, closely followed by rising law and order concerns.
Both play badly for the incumbents.
The electorate is also weary after a long period of government over-involvement in their lives during the pandemic.
It is this environment in which Mr Hipkins contests the election, leaving voters to bat eyelids at the opposition centre-right National.
Labour was polling in the mid-to-high 30 per cent range at the start of the year - enough to retain government with the help of left-leaning parties the Greens and the Maori Party.
It is now in what New Zealanders call the "terrible 20s," without a pathway to a parliamentary majority, and an ocean away from Labour's 50 per cent under Ms Ardern at the 2020 election.
In contrast, National is in the high 30s and looks set to govern in coalition with right-wingers ACT, and perhaps New Zealand First.
In an attempt to reboot his party's electoral fortunes, Mr Hipkins is selling a message New Zealanders are not yet buying: Labour can change.
"I think the sort of change I'm offering is the sort of change that will take New Zealand forward," he told AAP.
"I do acknowledge that mood.
"Well, we're offering change as well."
Mr Hipkins argues he has not had a decent crack at the job.
On taking office in January, he was thrust straight into emergency management, with major Auckland flooding and then Cyclone Gabrielle costing lives and livelihoods.
Labour also suffered political tumult, losing four ministers in a madcap four-month spell.
Stuart Nash was sacked as police minister for leaking cabinet details, customs minister Meka Whaitiri defected to the Maori Party, transport minister Michael Wood resigned after failing to disclose shares and justice minister Kiritapu Allan departed after a drunken car crash.
As Mr Hipkins insisted his government was focused on cost of living pressures, the constant cabinet reshuffles showed otherwise.
The start of the campaign earlier this month gave Mr Hipkins clear air.
"I've only been prime minister about six months before the election campaign got under way," he said.
"I'm just getting started."
Mr Hipkins' change so far has been to tack Labour to the centre ground.
He scrapped several Ardern-era policies - including a public media overhaul and climate projects - earlier this year to find savings and show the government was doing its bit during the cost of living crunch.
Budget promises including free prescription medicine and cheaper childcare for two-year-olds and campaign pledges such as taking GST off fruit and vegetables and free dental care for under-30s have not made a major impression.
Mr Hipkins also confronts another issue - he is not a natural campaigner.
Journalists have been aghast at the 45-year-old's awkwardness out and about, with long silences punctuating chit-chat with voters.
"Look, I'm not a used car salesman," Mr Hipkins confessed.
"I like to actually have proper conversations with people and that is more difficult when you've got a whole lot of cameras pointing at you because people are less reluctant to tell you what they think.
"It does make the campaign a bit more difficult.
"I've been making that adjustment."
As the campaign counts down, Mr Hipkins has morphed into an attack dog.
Every press conference begins with a strike at National, their "coalition of cuts" from promised public service savings and dubiously-funded income tax relief, and the "chaos" of partnering with ACT and NZ First.
Asked what topics he thinks Labour can successfully campaign on in the final fortnight, Mr Hipkins pivots straight to National.
"We will be talking about the risk of a National-ACT-New Zealand First government," he said.
"The fact that their numbers don't add up, the fact that they are going to put thousands of people out of jobs and that they are going to cut a whole lot of things that New Zealanders aren't aware that they're going to cut."
Essentially, Labour is running a better-the-devil-you-know campaign.
Last week, Mr Hipkins threw another factor into the mix - race.
In a charged addition to his "coalition of chaos" mantra, he confronted Opposition Leader Chris Luxon during a televised debate with an anti-Maori quote from an NZ First candidate and asked him why he was willing to partner with his party.
He continued the attack the next day when he argued National's pledge to cut the Maori Health Authority was to "get a few points in the polls".
Anti-Maori sentiment has been sadly present in the campaign, with candidates facing increasing and concerning hostility.
Mr Hipkins' gambit could be a successful ploy that gets New Zealanders thinking about values, not the cost of living issues that have dominated the campaign to date.
Or it could be a last throw of the dice given other strategies are not working.
"Chris Hipkins is desperate," Mr Luxon lamented in response to the racism questioning.
On that front, Mr Luxon was absolutely right.
