For Samdech Akka Moha Sena Padei Techo Hun Sen, Prime Minister of Cambodia, timing is everything. Therefore, it was not surprising that the world's longest-serving leader signalled recently that he would step down from politics. Unbelievable, right? He used to say he would remain in power until he was 90. If it had not come directly from him, nobody would have believed a word. His carefully calibrated decision comes at a critical time due to current domestic and external conditions and their likely long-term repercussions.
More importantly, it also demonstrates Hun Sen's ability to weather all kinds of political headwinds coming his way. His staying power is exceptional due to his political instincts -- what the Cambodians would describe as "Noyubuy...Ascha Nas!" And it is spreading outside the country.
When he was in Pursat last month, he was not coy but hinted strongly he would give up his premiership by stating that the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) is now well-prepared for new leadership. That also showed Hun Sen knows exactly what his country needs now, a younger generation of leaders who will take charge and move the country forward to compete with other Asean members. "We had better hand over to them and just stay behind them."
For years, he has been working within the party's top echelons to convince them to bring in a younger generation of leaders. Obviously, it was not an easy task because there are few young, capable leaders within the party's ranks that could step in when he steps out. After trial and error both within the family's and the CPP Party's circles, he has finally picked one of his four sons, Hun Manet, as his torch carrier. He is currently deputy commander-in-chief of the Cambodian Royal Armed Forces. With his father's and the CPP's blessing, he will stand in the upcoming election to pave the way to be anointed as the next prime minister at the most auspicious time, which could be as early as next year.
Like him or loathe him, Samdech Hun Sen deserves a lot of credit for building stability and prosperity and raising Cambodia's profile to where it is today. Lest we forget, this small nation was once a war-torn country that suffered from decades of civil war. Hun Sen has transformed this strategically located nation into a moderate small power with a distinctive voice in regional and global affairs. Phnom Penh has championed multilateralism in all areas. On several occasions, Cambodia has also played the role of a trust builder and peacemaker among great powers, such as in the case of Russia-Ukraine and EU-China relations. Within the international community, Cambodia's political and development model cannot be replicated.
Among the estimated 10 million voters in the upcoming election, scheduled for July 23, voters under the age of 56 and those dwelling in the cities and coastal areas are the support base for the opposition parties. Therefore, the CPP needs to focus on young voters, ensuring their support. Most of the ruling party members are now in their seventies. None of them wants to retire, except for Say Chumm, 78, the chair of the Senate.
For the past few years, the Cambodian government has been tackling four key issues -- employment, wages, corruption, and drugs. During the pandemic, the dual dilemma Cambodians faced was the rise in food prices and employment. Somehow, jobs are the key issue, especially among the youth. Cambodia's nearly 15-million-strong population consists of 65.3% young people under the age of 30. It is not an overstatement to say that young Cambodians these days are very sophisticated and well-rounded. They will decide the country's future trajectory.
According to the February survey, Cambodian voters have confidence in Hun Sen's leadership. Indeed, it would be difficult for anyone, including, for that matter, his son, to step into Hun Sen's shoes right away. There would be a grace period for the transition of power after the July polls. The future top gun, Hun Manet, has the right ammunition to lead Cambodia. With his Western education in military and economic science coupled with his youthful outlook, Hun Sen hopes his son can connect with the young generation and the global community. Hun Manet has already travelled widely and met with numerous leaders from Asean and dialogue partners. His father often included him in foreign trips.
Internationally, last year was a pivotal year for Hun Sen, in which he was able to show off his diplomatic finesse and, most importantly, his pragmatism. During the Asean chairmanship, he was more successful with global issues than regional ones. His ambitious efforts to make concrete progress in bringing normalcy to Myanmar under his helm did not bear fruit. His diplomatic experience and suggestions gained from decades of engagement with the international community, especially the West and UN-related organisations, went unheeded by the junta in Nay Pyi Taw.
Fortunately, Hun Sen successfully neutralised the West led by the US and Japan over the Russia-Ukraine war. Cambodia's position on the war flabbergasted Washington, which had no such expectations. The former Indochinese state voted against Russia in all three major UN General Assembly resolutions, very much to the chagrin of Moscow. Even more impressive from Washington's point of view was the Cambodian government's willingness to provide information about the project in Ream about the naval base in Sihanoukville, which the US and security strategists feared would be transformed into a Chinese naval base.
After the visit of US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman to Cambodia last June, bilateral ties remained a bit jumpy as the US was nervous about China's close ties with Cambodia. She urged Cambodia to uphold its constitution and prohibit exclusive control of its territory by any foreign country, including at Ream naval base. As the Asean summit drew close, the pressure was also mounting for Cambodia to choose a side. But Hun Sen hung on. Then, soon after he opened the Ream base and allowed media and diplomatic visits, which yielded positive effects showing that Cambodia had no intention of doing what the West feared. By the last quarter of its Asean chair, Washington was more confident that Cambodia's leadership would maintain an independent and balanced foreign policy in the best interests of the Cambodian people.
That kind of engagement ahead of the Asean summit, in more ways than one, convinced US President Joe Biden to go to Phnom Penh instead of Bangkok. After all, his seven-day schedule only allowed two stops -- Cambodia and Indonesia. If he so desired, he could just have had a brief, symbolic stop. That was Thailand's expectation. Somehow, Mr Biden felt he could ignore the Asia Pacific Leaders' Meeting in Bangkok by sending his vice president because, at the time, Hun Sen was able to convince the US of its higher strategic value.
All in all, Cambodia is gradually becoming a potential strategic partner in the eyes of the Biden administration policymakers due mainly to its close relationship with China. Washington wants to distance Phnom Penh from Beijing in every way it can. Some quarters in the Biden administration are not happy with that, not to mention a few diehard Hun Sen haters in Congress and its staffers. Allowing partial inspection of the Ream facilities was Hun Sen's way of augmenting US trust and confidence. The mercurial prime minister still has more strategic surprises in dealing with the US and China under his sleeves.
When Hun Manet takes over in the near future, Cambodia's ties with the US, as well as the EU, will be further improved. But he must win the July election first, and he will. Overall human rights violations and other negative measures inside the country would be less restrictive or eradicated altogether. The irony is that it was his father who set up the maze, and it is up to the son to undo it.
