California is home to six bellwether races in the U.S. House of Representatives that, according to analysts, could determine the control of the Lower House in 2025. One of them is attracting voters' attention in particular, as it was decided by only a handful of votes in 2022.
In the state's 13th Congressional District, which includes the San Joaquin Valley, incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) and Adam Gray (D) will go head-to-head. This race will be a rematch from 2022, when Duarte defeated Gray by 564 votes.
Duarte's victory in 2022 was the first for a Republican in the district since 1974, when Robert Lagomarsino won a special election. That contest was also the second-closest House race in the country that year.
The incumbent was first elected for a major political position in 2022. He is the owner of Duarte Nursery and a fourth-generational farmer in the San Joaquin Valley. His campaign has focused on affordable living and adequate water supply for the valley.
Meanwhile, Gray was first elected to the California Assembly in 2012. He is a professor at the University of California, Merced, and owns a small business. His campaign has focused on his legislative record, particularly leading the New Democratic Caucus, addressing a doctor shortage, and securing funding to extend the ACE train to Modesto and Merced.
"I've got a record; now John's got a record. He didn't have a record when he ran in '22... Now he does. So, voters get a chance to look at the 10 years of service that I provided in the state legislature," Gray said regarding a rematch with Duarte.
Duarte and Gray were the only two certified candidates running for the district in the nonpartisan primary earlier this year. They advanced to the general elections in March under California's top-two system, which moves the top two vote-getters forward, regarding party affiliation.
During that round of voting, the Republican incumbent received over 47,000 votes, which represented 54.9% of the ballots. While the Democrat received over 38,000, constituting 45.1% of the votes.
This race is being closely watched by analysts nationwide, particularly since Biden won this district by 11 percentage points in 2020.
Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, told Axios that turnout in this race, especially among Latinos, will be crucial.
Some Democratic-leaning Latino voters, especially in the Central Valley, don't have strong ties to the Democratic Party, making this— and the rest of the California bellwether races— even more unpredictable, according to Axios.
"The main reason they have leaned Democratic" is because of the party's pro-immigrant stance, but now issues in agriculture, such as access to water, are top priority— and many see Republicans as owning that issue, Holyoke says.
Holyoke also says Vice President Harris, a former California attorney general, could give Democrats in close House races a minimal but decisive jolt after entering the presidential race.
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