WASHINGTON — Only 18% of the 6.4 million Californians who are registered Independent, third-party or without a preference voted in the June 7 primary, according to Political Data, which tracks voter trends.
That’s compared to 28% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans, Political Data counts as of July 11 show.
The results demonstrate again that primary candidates who hitch their fortunes to Independent voters, like Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert in her unsuccessful campaign for California attorney general, do so at their peril.
“The preliminary races aren’t that important, and they’ve proven it over and over again: Republicans and Democrats both are far more likely to turn out for a primary than Independents,” Republican consultant Matt Rexroad said in an interview.
Rexroad and others theorize that many no-party-preference voters actually prefer Democrats or Republicans, not Independent candidates, and thus would reliably vote for one party over another.
A 2021 study by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that “Independent-likely voters have been somewhat more likely to lean Democratic (52%) than Republican (26%); 12% did not lean toward either party.”
Almost half of California voters are Democrats; the other half are split almost evenly between Republicans and others, according to the PPIC.
Rexroad and Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta pointed to Schubert’s campaign as Exhibit A for the difficulty in getting the Independent or no-party-preference vote. Had Schubert won, it would have been a first in modern California.
Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Nathan Hochman, a former U.S. assistant attorney general, advanced to the November election. Schubert finished behind another Republican.
“That’s what I never understood about the Anne Marie Schubert equation, which was, ‘Okay, these people don’t show up,’” Rexroad said. “What’s going to drive them to show up this time differently than they have in every other primary election you’ve ever had?”
Acosta said that while no-party preference voters “don’t move in mass,” many of them distrust politicians. Swinging their vote requires “nuanced messaging.”
“They don’t believe anything you tell them,” Acosta said. “You tell them, ‘The sky is blue today.’ They’re like, ‘Really? I don’t know.’ They’re grumpy. They don’t believe what politicians are saying. Many of them are Independent for a reason. At the moment I would have a hard time saying the path to victory is through no-party-preference voters. But we’ll see.”
California’s jungle primary
All the state’s primaries since 2012 have been “jungle” style — with candidates from all parties on the same ballot for most races. The top two vote-getters regardless of party go on to the general election rather than political parties having separate primaries and meeting in November, as happens in most states.
The idea, supported by then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, was to attract more moderate candidates and minimize partisanship.
Overall turnout from the 2022 primary matches that of pre-jungle gubernatorial primaries in 2006 and 2010, according to California’s Secretary of State.
No party preference voters “are going to vote either Republican or Democrat in the general election, so they’re really not in the equivalent of primaries,” Rexroad said. “I know that we don’t have a ‘pure primary system’ in California, or we don’t have partisan nominees, but they’re more interested in the finals.”
More vote in November
All active registered voters in the state were mailed ballots this year. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed that provision into law in 2021 to boost accessibility. Ballots could be mailed, dropped off at a ballot box or handed in at a voting site or election office. People could vote in-person, even registering to vote when walking into a center on Election Day.
But overall turnout was low. Just over 33% of voters returned a ballot, according to counts by the Secretary of State as of July 7 — the lowest it has been since the 2014 primary.
(Turnout was somewhat higher in Sacramento County — 38.88% of registered voters, the second-highest turnout during a gubernatorial primary since 2002, according to final election results. Only 2018 saw a higher turnout, when 41.94% of local voters turned out.)
Of the nearly 22 million ballots given to voters, over 5.5 million were returned for this primary election, according to the Political Data estimates.
California’s 2022 political season closely resembles 2014: the midterm of a Democratic president (Barack Obama) and a gimme-victory for an incumbent governor. That year-Gov. Jerry Brown skated to re-election, as Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to this year.
But the comparison is flawed, said Political Data vice president Paul Mitchell. There were more voters in this gubernatorial primary than any previous one.
“We’re kind of dinging the state for having such effective voter registration,” Mitchell said in an interview. “The state has registered 22 million voters whereas in 2014 there were only 17 million voters. Now the percentage turnout looks like it’s going down.”
Lack of competitiveness at the top of the ticket could cause some voters to stay home, particularly Democrats who know that their blue-state incumbents are safe.
If history is any guide, November will be rough for the party holding the White House. President Joe Biden’s sagging approval rating has many analysts pointing to a nationwide “red wave” that will hand control of the House to the GOP in 2023.
Still, more people will punch their tickets in November than did in June.
“Part of what will naturally happen is the general will have more excitement,” Mitchell said. “The general is more nationalized because all the states are having their general at the same time, so no matter what media outlets you are on, you’re going to see stuff about the election.”
Mitchell said turnout in November will be driven by what the national political climate is focused on, such as inflation, gas prices and abortion.
“I would expect that the turnout for Independents, young voters and Latinos — as has always happened — to increase for the general election,” he said. “It’s just a question of how much it will.”
