LOS ANGELES — California public school enrollment has continued to decline this school year without any bounce-back from steep drops during the pandemic years, although the pace of decreases has slowed.
Overall, enrollment for the 2022-23 school year went down 0.69% or nearly 40,000 children, bringing the total to 5,852,544, according to newly released state data.
This year's percentage decline is worse than each of the five years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but a substantial improvement on the two school years most affected by the pandemic: 2020-21 and 2021-22.
The new numbers "show student enrollment is beginning to stabilize with increased enrollment in kindergarten and grades seven and eleven," according to a statement from the California Department of Education. But for nine of the 13 grade levels, enrollment was lower than last year.
"I know the state frames is: Enrollment has stabilized, but at some level, that's missing the point, which is that these kids aren't coming back," said Thomas Dee, a professor in Stanford's Graduate School of Education who has researched student demographic trends. "We haven't seen — and are unlikely to see anytime in the near future — a bounce-back from the substantial loss in public school enrollment that occurred over the pandemic."
If enrollment is lower and students are nonetheless doing well, then a modest and gradual drop in enrollment can be managed effectively, experts and officials said. But a significant steady decline or a sharp decline — and the state has recently experienced both — poses challenges.
School systems eventually have to lay off workers and curtail programs and schools have to close.
The issue is more likely to surface in about two years — when COVID-19 aid is exhausted. But a few California school systems already face problems.
Centinela Valley Union High School District in L.A.'s South Bay area, for example, operates three comprehensive high schools. The district postponed reducing staff during the pandemic in hopes that enrollment would rebound, said Superintendent Stephen Nellman. Instead, the number of students continued to shrink.
The district sent out 105 layoff notices to employees represented by the teachers union, even reaching staff with significant seniority protections.
At a recent board meeting, more than 200 protesting students, parents and staff marched in pouring rain, then packed the board meeting room in Lawndale for an emotionally charged hearing in which speakers accused district officials of mismanagement.
"We are a canary in the coal mine," Nellman said.
In Los Angeles Unified, the state's largest school system, the financial picture appears to be different, with a large surplus that seems able to support significant raises and hiring.
But with declining enrollment, "districts have to face the difficult question of closing schools and which schools to close," Dee said. "Past experience tells us that these are challenges that just render the fabric of communities because parents don't want to lose their neighborhood schools. "
The disruption to learning when a child changes school can be consequential, Dee said.
"As it often plays out, many of our most vulnerable learners are often asked to switch schools — and maybe not directed towards one of our higher performing schools," he said.
Although there are no definitive breakdowns explaining student enrollment drops, the declines, in part, likely reflect overall demographic trends in California. The state experienced a population drop of more than 500,000 people between April 2020 and July 2022. Also, California has been seeing a decline in population for years, with the COVID-19 pandemic pushing even more people to move to other parts of the country, experts say.
In some instances, secondary students left school during the pandemic — taking jobs to support their families or looking after younger siblings while parents worked. Some have likely since earned a high school degree or GED certificate even if they have not been officially accounted for in the K-12 system, said Maria Clayton, a spokesperson for the state Department of Education.
Some young children were held out of public school during the remote learning phase of the pandemic and also have not returned.
Private school enrollment rose slightly last year — about 6,000 students. Charter school enrollment is up about 7,500 this year but had declined by 12,600 last year. And home schooling declined by about 9,000 students, numbers that are self-reported. A parent could be home-schooling without filing a required affidavit with the state.
So far researchers and public officials haven't put forward anything close to a full accounting for the pandemic decline in public-school enrollment.
In the 2020-21 school year, enrollment plummeted by 160,478 students, or 2.6%. Most California students spent most of that year in remote learning. The drop next year was less catastrophic but still historically large, even though in-person schooling had resumed. Enrollment dropped by 110,283, or 1.84%.
Compared with those two pandemic years, this year's figures are vastly better. But there's a major caveat: The leap in kindergarten enrollment is misleading.
Enrollment in kindergarten looks like it increased by more than 25,000 — more than five times the gain in any other grade.
However, this figure was boosted by including a newly expanded grade: transitional kindergarten for 4-year-olds.
The state did not provide separate figures on how many students are in kindergarten and how many are in the expanded pool of 4-year-olds. It's not clear whether the figure of 496,000 for kindergarten represents real growth at all.
State demographers estimate there to be at least 1 million 4- and 5-year-olds in California, so the data suggest that fewer than half are in public school. Those grades are optional in California — and Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed mandatory kindergarten. But most state leaders, including Newsom, say that the extra schooling is especially needed for children whose families suffered most from the pandemic.
A March report from the state Senate estimated that the number of 4-year-olds in public school year had increased by only 11,000 students over the last three years, even though "roughly 65,000 additional children are eligible" due to gradual traditional kindergarten expansion.
Recent estimates available from the state Legislative Analyst suggest that about 91,000 4-year-olds are in traditional kindergarten this year, said Bruce Fuller, a University of California, Berkeley professor of education and public policy who conducts research on the expansion of traditional kindergarten.
"The underlying truth is disappointing growth in preschool slots for young children," said Fuller. "But there's great potential for future growth if local schools can find additional teachers and win state dollars to renovate classrooms for young children."
Earlier this school year, L.A. school officials reported a similar pattern: continued enrollment decline somewhat offset by the addition of transitional kindergarten.
Among the most disturbing numbers in the state data is a 9% increase in the number of homeless children — that's 15,584 additional children.
This number could reflect that with the return of in-person services "districts are better at identifying homeless youth" or it also could be that the pandemic and other factors exacerbated the problem, said Dee. "You could imagine that many housing insecure youth were effectively truant or skipping school and are now finding their way back."
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