If it seems like there are more Teslas, Chevy Bolts and electric Ford Mustangs on freeways and in driveways across California, there’s a reason for that. There are.
New data out Friday show that motorists in California have bought 1.5 million electric vehicles since 2011 — 40% of all electric vehicle sales in the United States — surpassing a goal set by former Gov. Jerry Brown two years early.
High gas prices, the improving range of batteries and a decade of California’s regulations on auto companies are driving the change, experts say.
“The technology is improving so rapidly and becoming more affordable,” said Simon Mui, director of clean car programs at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group in San Francisco. “It’s like the movement from landlines to cell phones, which happened fast.”
In 2012, Brown signed an executive order setting a target of 1.5 million “zero emission vehicles,” or ZEVs, sold in California by 2025. But by March 31, the total had already reached 1,523,966, according to quarterly data out Friday from the California Energy Commission.
The interest of a small number of hobbyists just a decade ago, now, 21% of all new passenger vehicles sold in California from Jan. 1 to March 31 were electric, a total of 124,053 vehicles.
Last year, the two top-selling new passenger vehicles in California were both electric, the Tesla Y and Tesla Model 3. According to the California New Car Dealers Association, there were 87,257 Tesla Y SUVs sold in California last year — twice the number of new Ford F-Series pickup trucks sold. And there were 78,934 new Tesla Model 3 sedans sold — more than all the new Honda Civics and Toyota Corollas combined.
Other EVs like the Mustang Mach-E, the Volkswagen ID.4, and the Hyundai IONIQ 5 are increasingly visible on the state’s roads and highways.
Many motorists may not have realized it yet. But the internal combustion engine’s days are numbered in California.
Last August, the California Air Resources Board passed landmark rules that prohibit the sale of all new gasoline-powered cars, SUVs, minivans, and pickups in the state by 2035.
The auto industry, which has 115 models of electric vehicles for sale in California now, up from 46 in 2019, did not oppose the new rules, which were ordered by Gov. Gavin Newsom as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and smog. But industry officials say they want the state to regularly review vehicle costs, availability of battery materials, and charging stations to see if the targets will need to be adjusted.
“These are, without question, the most sweeping and transformative regulations in the history of the automobile industry,” said Steve Douglas, vice president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, an industry trade group, in a letter to the air board last summer.
“Automakers will work to meet the standards,” Douglas wrote, “but the board should be aware the proposed requirements will be extremely challenging.”
The first-in-the-nation rules won’t ban gasoline-powered cars already on the road. Nor will they prohibit the sale of used ones after 2035.
They do require that 35% of all new passenger vehicles offered for sale in California starting in 2026 to be zero-emission — basically electric, plug-in hybrid or fuel cell — ramping up to 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
So far six other states have copied California’s rules: New York, Virginia, Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts and Vermont. Others, including Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Connecticut are considering similar rules.
Last week, the Biden administration followed suit. Reversing course from the Trump administration, which attempted unsuccessfully to block California’s rules, the Biden Environmental Protection Agency proposed tough new pollution standards that could result in battery-powered cars and trucks making up two-thirds of new passenger vehicle sales nationally by 2032.
Big challenges remain, however.
In 2018, Brown set a goal of 5 million electric vehicles sold in California by 2030. To hit that target, the state needs a lot more charging stations — 1.2 million to be exact.
Currently, there are 87,707 statewide, according to the California Energy Commission. Roughly 250,000 are expected to be built by 2026 with funding the state and private companies have lined up, said Patty Monahan, a member of the California Energy Commission.
The agency estimates that five times as many will be needed by 2030. Although homeowners can charge the vehicles at home while they sleep, many renters who live in apartments don’t have easy access to recharging.
“Our theory is that the public share will be reduced over time as the private sector really takes over the market and these charging providers start making money from charging,” Monahan said. “The state needs to focus on making sure that communities that otherwise wouldn’t get access get access, like lower-income and rural communities in particular.”
In January, Newsom proposed to cut state spending on renewable energy and climate projects by $6 billion over five years, from $54 billion to $48 billion, to address the state’s proposed $22 billion deficit this year, drawing the ire of environmental groups. About $3.3 billion of the cuts, which must still be approved by state legislators, would come from clean transportation programs, like financial incentives for companies to build chargers and for motorists to buy electric vehicles.
Price also remains an issue.
At the end of 2022, the average price of an electric vehicle was $61,488, compared with $49,507 for all passenger cars and trucks, according to Kelley Blue Book. Since then, however, Tesla has cut prices six times on its vehicles, and the Model 3 is now $39,990. Other car companies have dropped prices as well, some to make their vehicles eligible for incentives under the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which provides buyers with up to $7,500 for new EVs and up to $4,000 for used ones.
