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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
National
Ariana Baio

Calendar of chaos: How Trump’s trial dates and the Republican primaries will intertwine

AFP/Getty

In a typical presidential election year, candidates will spend the 11 months leading up to election day shaking hands and kissing babies at rallies as the primaries unfold.

But nothing is typical when it comes to Donald Trump.

Instead, the ex-president will be forced to juggle his campaign for the White House while also defending himself in federal and state courts in four different trials that are currently set to occur between January and May.

Kicking off with E Jean Carroll’s damages trial on the same day as the Iowa caucus to his federal classified documents trial one month before the GOP convention, Mr Trump’s jam-packed schedule seemingly leaves little time for him to socialise outside of a courtroom.

How Mr Trump will manage his campaign while convincing voters he’s innocent of it all – including alleged efforts to overturn previous elections in his favour – remains to be seen.

What does Donald Trump’s calendar look like?

15 January – Iowa caucus

Voters in Iowa will be conducting the first-in-the-nation caucus just one day before Mr Trump heads to court for his first trial of the year.

Not only does the Iowa caucus set the tone for the primaries, it can be an indicator as to who GOP voters are leaning toward. So far, Mr Trump is polling ahead of his rivals in Iowa, though he has spent considerably less time in the state than others.

After the Iowa caucus, six other states will have their primaries or caucuses leading up to Mr Trump’s first federal election trial.

16 January – E Jean Carroll damages trial begins

The start of election season will also kick off with yet another trial against writer E Jean Carroll. This time, the case will determine how much Mr Trump owes Ms Carroll in damages for making defamatory statements after she accused him of sexual abuse.

Mr Trump said he plans to attend the start of the civil trial.

E Jean Carroll (centre) leaves a Manhattan courthouse in May last year after a jury found Mr Trump liable for sexually abusing her in a Manhattan department store in the 1990s
— (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

4 March – federal election interference trial begins

In Washington DC, Mr Trump’s first federal criminal trial for his alleged involvement in trying to overturn the 2020 election results and subsequent January 6 insurrection is supposed to begin.

The ex-president is charged with conspiracy to defraud the US, obstruction and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights for his alleged part in fuelling the attack on the Capitol with false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election.

The trial date is pending a decision in Mr Trump’s immunity appeal.

5 March – Super Tuesday

One day after Mr Trump’s federal election interference trial kicks off is Super Tuesday – the day when most states hold their primaries.

The first Tuesday in March is a pivotal day for candidates as the results provide strong insight as to who Republican voters are leaning toward.

After Super Tuesday, 10 other states will have their primary or caucus until Mr Trump’s criminal case in New York begins at the end of March.

25 March 2024 – Hush-money payment trial begins

Last year, Mr Trump became the first sitting or former president to be criminally indicted after being charged with 34 counts pertaining to falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal court.

The charges stem from an investigation by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg that alleges Mr Trump tried to cover up hush money payments that he made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels in 2016 to silence her claims of an extramarital affair.

Though the case is set for March, it is more than likely going to be delayed until after the election so federal prosecutors as well as Mr Trump and his legal team can focus on the federal election interference trial.

Mr Trump sits at the defence table with his legal team in a Manhattan court in April last year
— (AP)

20 May – federal classified documents trial begins

Ten other states will have conducted their primaries by the time Mr Trump is expected back in federal court, this time in Florida, to face 40 charges pertaining to his alleged mishandling of sensitive government documents.

Federal prosecutors indicted Mr Trump in June for allegedly unlawfully retaining top-secret documents that contained national security information at his Mar-a-Lago home after he left office.

The charges include violating a section of the Espionage Act for allegedly unlawfully retaining top-secret documents that contained national security information.

The trial is set to begin less than two months before the GOP convention in July.

15-18 July, GOP convention

After the remaining states conduct their primaries, the Republican Party will host its convention where it will announce an official nominee.

At the moment, Mr Trump is leading the polls but depending on how the year plays out, he may not become the party’s nominee.

5 August – Georgia election interference trial

Three months before election day, Mr Trump is expected to head to trial in Georgia for his alleged involvement in trying to overturn the state’s 2020 election results in his favour.

The former president was charged with violating Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) statute along with 18 other co-defendants.

Mr Trump faces 12 additional charges including solicitation of a public officer, conspiracy to make false statements under oath and more.

5 November – Election Day

On Tuesday, 5 November, US voters will head to the polls to cast their vote for president.

Mr Trump delivers a speech at the Republican convention in 2016 – the party will host this year’s convention in July, where it will announce an official nominee
— (Getty Images)

How will this affect Donald Trump?

Glancing over Mr Trump’s calendar, it may seem like his ability to successfully campaign is virtually impossible. But the ex-president has positioned himself to benefit from his trials.

“In a weird way, none of this really bothers him. In fact, it’s a great asset for him politically,” Kevin O’Brien, a partner at Ford O’Brien Landy LLP and former assistant US attorney, told The Independent.

Mr Trump has capitalised on his trials by painting himself as a victim – or martyr as Mr O’Brien points out – to appeal to his supporters.

After each indictment, the ex-president’s campaign has called on supporters to express their outrage through their wallets. Splashed across his website, Truth Social posts and emails is Mr Trump’s new slogan: “They’re not after me, they’re after you… I’m just standing in the way.”

Mr Trump has capitalised on his trials by painting himself as a victim, calling on his supporters to express their outrage through their wallets
— (Getty Images)

Even though some of the trials raise questions about Mr Trump’s ability to lead the country successfully – like his classified documents case and the federal election interference case – his former job and loyal fanbase reinforce his ability to be president.

“He can always argue, and he will argue up until the day of the election, this is all unfair and he wasn’t able to campaign effectively because of all these persecutions from Garland and Biden,” Mr O’Brien said.

But the likelihood that Mr Trump will actually have to juggle three criminal trials and a campaign at the same time is still unclear. Though the judges in each case have set start dates, they can be changed – and according to Mr O’Brien, it is likely that they will be.

Mr O’Brien said the three trials are “not feasible” because they require massive time and resources from both the prosecutors and Mr Trump’s legal team.

“It’s terribly unfair to the defence,” Mr O’Brien said. “It takes months and months to prepare for one of these large white-collar cases – he only has so much manpower at his disposal.”

Already, Mr Trump’s legal team has sought to delay the trials by using every legal motion possible.

Most likely is that two of the trials against Mr Trump will need to be delayed until after the election. Prosecutors may choose to go forward with the strongest case against the ex-president which appears to be the federal election interference case.

“Those issues are important for voters, it’s important to know how he intends to defend himself against what appears to be a pretty serious constitutional and criminal offence,” Mr O’Brien said.

Mr O’Brien suggested the case could take two to three months to be completed which would mean the trial could conclude shortly before the GOP convention.

Even if it’s the only case Mr Trump is trailed in before the election, there’s no telling how the outcome will change voters’, and the Republican Party’s, perception of the former president.

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