Week 12 was a week of moral victories for some of the NFL’s most hyped young quarterbacks. Caleb Williams and Bryce Young played some of the best football of their respective pro careers, albeit in close losses. That should be enough to sustain the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers, respectively, for at least one more week.
Other young QBs weren’t as lucky. C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye each struggled in losses to division rivals. Anthony Richardson was let down by penalties, pressure and drops in a game that looked significantly worse on the box score than it did in real time. But were any of these three passers the most disappointing quarterback of Week 12?
Fortunately, we’ve got a metric that can help figure that out.
Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player. By comparing each passer’s Week 12 EPA against their 2024 average to date we get a better picture of just how frustrating their performances were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com.
This is a metric that gauges disappointment based on what we’d typically expect. Will Levis had a negative EPA in Week 12, but that was an improvement over his typical negative performance so he missed the list. Who was the worst? There were several candidates but only one man can truly call himself the grossest quarterback of Week 12.
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5. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.1
Week 12 EPA: -7
Difference: 5.9 points worse
Well, this is a bummer. Stroud’s backsliding 2024 has left low expectations as the season wears on without him realizing his 2023 potential. On Sunday, he continued plumbing the depths of his brief NFL career in a 32-27 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. That included nearly Dan Orlovsky-ing his way out the back of the end zone en route to a game-sealing safety.
SAFETY AND THE TITANS WILL WIN IT pic.twitter.com/0iGlaN2Np8
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 24, 2024
Stroud has just sorta been a mess this season. He’s been left to languish in the pocket even as his pressure and blitz rates increase behind a shaky offensive line. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has had zero impetus to dial up quick routes or play-action passes to help create easy gains or room in the pocket. Instead, he’s opted to let Stroud try and do entirely too much, with predictable results.
That leaves Stroud as a bottom-10 quarterback and the Texans at 7-5 after a 5-1 start. Houston will still likely claim the AFC South title because the division is a mess. But unless things change and Slowik can rebuild Stroud’s value as a passer this will be a one-and-done Texans team come the postseason.
First career INT for @JarvisBrownlee3!
📺: Watch #TENvsHOU on @NFLonCBS stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/xbXvjMAMJW
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 24, 2024
4. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -5.1
Week 12 EPA: -12.1
Difference: 7.0 points worse
The good news: Minshew wasn’t the worst quarterback the Raiders played Sunday. As bad as Minshew was — and it was grim:
We'll take that.
📺: CBS | @BlessedJones33 pic.twitter.com/Cxozg3wXVQ
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 24, 2024
He was better on a per-play basis than Desmond Ridder, -0.25 EPA/play to -0.44 EPA/play. The bad news: Ridder entered the game thanks to an injury that took Minshew out of the lineup and gave Ridder the chance to show the world how he *still* holds on to the ball too long in the pocket.
STRIP-SACK, NIK BONITTO‼️
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/yPJ7piM4zV
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 25, 2024
Minshew suffered what’s reported to be a broken collarbone in the loss. Thus begins the legend of “Daniel Jones, Las Vegas Raider.”
I can dream, right?
3. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.8
Week 12 EPA: -8.8
Difference: 7.0 points worse
Richardson showcased all the tools that made him the fourth overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft last week. He threw for 272 yards and ran for 32 more en route to three total touchdowns in a win over the New York Jets.
In Week 12, the box score suggests he’d gone back to the erratic gunslinger who’d necessitated his own benching earlier in the season. Richardson completed just 11 of 28 passes and failed to find the end zone. Except, well, he doesn’t deserve all the blame for this one.
Anthony Richardson today:
-Short TD dropped by Andrew Ogletree
-Ashton Dulin fails to get both feet inbounds on deep dime down the sideline for 40+ yards
-Additional 30, 21, 21, and 7 yard gains nullified by penalty— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 24, 2024
Richardson had big gains wiped out by drops, penalties and generally underwhelming situational awareness. Top target Josh Downs got hurt. Jonathan Taylor averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Basically, everything that could go wrong did, with the exception of turnovers.
Every Anthony Richardson incompletion from the broadcast. A lot of pressure. A lot of throwaways. A lot of miscommunications. And a bad drop.
What is your takeaway?#Colts pic.twitter.com/D7G2ZGVYb6
— Landon Oliver (@Landon3MR) November 24, 2024
Richardson was still the losing quarterback of record. Accuracy remains a concern. But Sunday’s poor performance cannot be laid solely at his feet when so many of those incompletions were drops, throwaways out of a bad situation or other excusable misses. He got dealt a bad hand here.
2. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -0.9
Week 12 EPA: -10.9
Difference: 10 points worse
Maye had outplayed his low baseline over the last month, leading to hope his Patriots could travel to Miami and take care of the Dolphins on the road. Instead, he trailed 24-0 at the half. While this helped further the idea of a high draft pick to charge up 2025’s rebuild, it was a rough sled for a young quarterback against a good, but not elite, passing defense.
The rookie turned the ball over twice for an offense that managed seven total points (eight more came via fumble return touchdown). He had a very nice and partially stupid deep touchdown throw to Austin Hooper. Granted this was on 4th-and-15 in garbage time, but it’s still something.
Drake ➡️ Hoop for a 4th quarter score
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/REHPLyN9wo
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 24, 2024
Unfortunately, that was the only one of seven throws 15-plus yards downfield that Maye completed. Only two of his 22 completions went more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. After a handful of solid performances, regression came for the rookie all at once in south Florida.
1. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.8
Week 12 EPA: -7.4
Difference: 10.2 points worse
Murray’s first full season back from a torn ACL has been a triumph. Unfortunately, it hit a speed bump in Week 12 — and took the Cardinals’ spot atop the NFC West down with it.
Murray was mostly inoffensive Sunday, racking up too many negative plays and too few explosive ones. His lone turnover came on fourth down — a bad pass on a blown up play that resulted in the worst possible outcome.
HOUSE CALL FOR COBY 🎱 pic.twitter.com/hiQNjq1uzw
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 24, 2024
The dual-threat quarterback ran for only nine yards. He took as many sacks (five) as he had completions that traveled more than nine yards downfield. His offense failed to find the end zone. Murray was just sort of a mess when asked to throw to his right (five of 13, 47 yards, one interception)
By those powers combined and the strength of his 2024 to date, Murray earned this week’s top spot.
