The Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, Neil Parish, announced he would quit as an MP after admitting to twice watching pornography in the House of Commons, triggering another byelection. It comes days after the resignation of Imran Ahmad Khan, Tory MP for Wakefield, who was found guilty of sexual assault.
While Parish’s seat at least may seem safe for the Tories, recent byelections have brought shock results. Here’s a rundown of the two votes to come – and the eight already held since the last general election.
Tiverton and Honiton
The Conservatives have held the Devon seat since its creation in 1997 but are expected to face a fight to cling on to it after Parish’s resignation. While Labour finished second in 2019, the Liberal Democrats are bullish about their chances. Amid talk of an informal plan for neither party to over-exert itself where the other is better-placed to unseat a Tory incumbent, the Lib Dems believe they could end up being the principal challenger. No date has yet been set for the byelection.
Wakefield
One of the seats the Conservatives were most proud to grab during their raid of the so-called red wall in 2019, they now fear losing it before the parliamentary term is up. Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in April, then being confronted by the Guardian with more allegations. The byelection is expected in June.
North Shropshire: Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Among the greatest upsets of recent byelections, and one of the most closely associated with Boris Johnson’s personal failings in No 10. The Lib Dem candidate Helen Morgan pulled off a 34% swing in a supposedly safe Tory seat in December after the prime minister’s disastrous attempt to prevent Owen Paterson facing the consequences of an “egregious” breach of lobbying rules ended with the former minister’s resignation. Paterson had won a near-23,000 majority in 2019. Morgan emerged triumphant with her own 6,000 majority.
Chesham and Amersham: Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
Another Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives in what had been one of their safest seats – this time in the Buckinghamshire constituency. Sarah Green built up a majority of more than 8,000 votes as she managed a swing of 25 percentage points to win last June – foreshadowing the Lib Dems’ win in Shropshire six months later. The contest was called after the death from cancer of the local MP Cheryl Gillan, who had represented the constituency since 1992 and held it in 2019 with a majority of 16,223.
Hartlepool: Conservative gain from Labour
The Conservatives are not the only party to have seen a seat they may have hoped to hold slip away during this parliament. A year ago, the people of Hartlepool woke up in a Tory constituency for the first time in more than 50 years after Jill Mortimer won. While distrust of Johnson has been identified as one of the issues behind Tory troubles, Labour figures said the prime minister’s popularity made their task an uphill one in this north-east England byelection, which was precipitated by the resignation of Mike Hill amid misconduct allegations. An employment tribunal later ruled he sexually assaulted and harassed a parliamentary staff member.
Airdrie and Shotts: SNP hold
Labour may have gained ground after the resignation of Neil Gray to stand in a Scottish parliamentary election in the overlapping Holyrood constituency, but Anum Qaisar-Javed ultimately held the Westminster seat for the SNP last May. In so doing, the modern studies teacher became only Scotland’s second female Muslim MP. She told BBC Scotland she hoped to be a role model for others from diverse backgrounds, and she pledged to fight for Scottish independence.
Old Bexley and Sidcup: Conservative hold
In Shropshire last December, the Conservatives paid the price of what Johnson admitted was his “total mistake” in trying to replace the system that found Paterson breached the rules with one dominated by his own party. But they had escaped such censure in the south-east London suburb of Old Bexley and Sidcup two weeks earlier. Louie French held the safe seat in a byelection triggered by the death from lung cancer of the former cabinet minister James Brokenshire – albeit with a reduced majority on a smaller turnout.
Batley and Spen: Labour hold
Kim Leadbeater, sister of the murdered MP Jo Cox, held the seat for Labour after her party colleague Tracy Brabin stood down when she was elected West Yorkshire’s mayor. Anger at the revelation that the former health secretary, Matt Hancock, had breached his own government’s social distancing rules, as well as a concerted effort to keep George Galloway out of power after he was blamed for stoking division, were identified as key drivers of the Labour vote.
Birmingham Erdington: Labour hold
The election of Paulette Hamilton to the West Midlands seat in March this year followed the sudden death of the former shadow minister Jack Dromey, who had held the seat since 2010. Hamilton, a former nurse who became Birmingham’s first black MP, increased Labour’s vote share on 2019. She said the result showed that “with listening to what the public are telling us and acting upon that”, Labour could secure more success.
Southend West: Tory hold
Anna Firth held the Essex constituency for the Conservatives in February in a byelection that followed the murder of the MP David Amess by an Islamist terrorist. She won with 86% of the vote after Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other mainstream political parties chose not to contest the seat. Speaking after her victory speech, she praised Amess’ widow, adding that she recognised it was a “sad and painful day” for his family.
