After three marathon byelection campaigns culminated with party activists pulling an all-nighter under the unforgiving lights of a vast hall, the first thing on most campaigners’ minds – now the counts are completed – is sleep.
But it will not take long for the postmortems to be carried out in the headquarters of Britain’s three biggest political parties. The pace of politics is relentless, and strategists know there are at least two more possible byelections on the horizon – in Nadine Dorries’ Mid-Bedfordshire seat and Chris Pincher’s in Tamworth.
Searching questions will be asked about what went well this time, how campaigns should be tweaked for the future and what the results mean for each party.
Conservatives
Losing two safe seats will leave Tory MPs looking over their shoulder in fear that any of them with a majority under 20,000 might be cast out into the cold by voters at the next general election.
The results mean that the “narrow path” to victory they were told existed in January is narrower now than it was then. And taken together, the Tories suffered a net loss of around 21 points across the three seats contested on Thursday. That would suggest the national opinion polls are in the right ballpark and that Rishi Sunak has plenty to worry about.
However, the Tories managed to set the narrative in the run-up to these results – leading the prime minister to confidently proclaim no one had expected them to hold on in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Despite only winning by a margin of about 500 votes, holding out against a triple defeat will certainly spare Sunak from any immediate furious briefings by his backbenchers and mean he isn’t forced to conduct a reshuffle in a panic.
The outcome in west London will also give the Conservatives hope that they can take the fight to Labour in areas where it is in power. A push against the ultra low emission zone (Ulez), which is being expanded by the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, undeniably helped the Tories position themselves as the opposition in Boris Johnson’s former seat and ensure a strong turnout. Further moves may now be made in parliamentary seats covered by mayoralties held by Labour, or in Wales, where there is a Labour government.
Harder to avoid is that the anti-Tory vote is coalescing. In the seats where they were not the main challenger, Labour and the Lib Dems got just 3.3%, 2.6% and 1.7%. Tactical voting is certainly more popular at byelections, but if replicated at even a fraction of that scale at a general election, it would be very bad news for the Conservatives.
Labour
Much of politics is about presentation and momentum – and Keir Starmer needs as much wind in his sails as possible to carry him through to the next general election.
In the end, Labour pulled off what should have been a pipe dream – turning Selby and Ainsty red. They will also take heart that their vote share grew by seven points in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, while the Tories’ dipped.
Though the Lib Dems were nowhere to be seen, Labour still knows it can be squeezed by the Greens, whose third-place position with 893 votes was the difference between Labour flipping the seat and the Tories holding on. Starmer’s party lost by 495 votes.
Recriminations will fly over the handling of Ulez. Starmer’s equivocating, in a bid to avoid siding with either the party’s local candidate or mayor Khan, meant Labour’s position was confused. During the cost of living crisis, some party strategists have summed up the lesson to be learned as simply: “It’s the economy, stupid”.
There will also be soul-searching about whether Labour’s green policies can make it to the next election intact – given the party has already had to scale back its plans for £28bn of investment in green jobs and industry.
It also piles more pressure on Khan ahead of next year’s mayoral election, which some Labour figures say the Conservatives have written off, following the selection of their candidate, Susan Hall.
Starmer needs to fend off uncertainty among voters about whether he has what it takes to win a majority at the next general election. Otherwise, fears about a potential coalition or the uncertainty of a minority government might creep in and persuade voters not to risk voting Labour.
Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems are experts at pulling off a stunning byelection victory – the league table of biggest swings in percentage shares of the vote on such occasions is dominated by the party.
It is less surprising they took Somerton and Frome, given the seat had the longest lead-in time of all three contests: the Lib Dems have been preparing for a byelection ever since allegations emerged last spring about the previous Tory MP, David Warbuton, some of which he denied.
Coming on the coat tails of other upsets in other seats like North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton, it proves that the Lib Dems can still flex their muscles in rural areas. Party activists are also confident their latest win in the south-west is evidence of a wider resurgence, which they claim would be as important to depriving the Tories of a majority at the next general election as Labour regaining its standing in Scotland.
The result means the Lib Dems know the power of focusing their resources, having practically stood aside in the other two byelections to give Labour a clean run.
But in Mid-Bedfordshire – where a byelection will be held once Nadine Dorries makes good on her pledge to quit – both Labour and the Lib Dems are determined to take on the Tories. That threatens to shatter the unspoken agreement between both parties – and could lead to the Conservative candidate breaking through the middle, to win. Given the Lib Dems are a far distant third in Tamworth, they may decide it is best to avoid another three-way fight and leave the seat to Labour to focus on another jewel in the Tories’ home counties crown.
