Health Minister Mark Butler expects a surge in hospital activity and corresponding funding in coming years, despite a downward revision of hospital activity forecasts in this week's budget.
Mr Butler was in Newcastle on Friday to talk about the federal government's $28.7 million budget allocation to fully restore the Hunter's GP Access After Hours service.
The Australian Medical Association has criticised the funding model for the nation's hospital system and this week seized on forecasts in Tuesday's budget that showed state and territory governments expect less activity in hospitals than they predicted in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) in April.
The budget papers say predicted Commonwealth payments for public hospitals are $2.4 billion lower over the next four years compared with the PEFO forecast, "largely reflecting a reduction in the volume of hospital services forecast by the states and territories".
Treasury forecasts hospital funding to rise over the next four years but at a lower rate than predicted in the PEFO.
AMA president Stephen Robson said on Thursday that he was "stunned" states had downgraded forecast hospital activity "at a time when demand for hospital services is at an all-time high".
"States and territories need to expand their capacity: more beds and more staff to meet community demand," he said.
"But they don't have the staff, they might not have the beds, and the current funding model is broken with the overall investment from both the states and territories and the Commonwealth falling short of what is needed."
Hospital funding has been in the spotlight at John Hunter Hospital this week after a survey of surgeons and specialists indicated many had been asked to change the clinical urgency category of patients on surgery wait lists to meet key performance indicators set by the NSW Ministry of Health.
Ninety-four per cent of 169 respondents agreed with the notion that "inadequate resourcing" had reached "crisis point" and 93 per cent had no confidence in Hunter New England Health chief executive Michael DiRienzo.
The survey has prompted NSW Health to conduct an independent "compliance check" of how its policies are implemented at the John Hunter.
Mr Butler said he did not agree with changing the hospital funding model, which dates back to 2011 and requires states and territories to bill the federal government for its share of hospital funding based on activity in hospitals.
"Activity has obviously declined over the course of COVID, particularly in elective surgery, so the bill from NSW and Victoria and some other states was lower than had been projected," he said.
"I have no doubt that activity is going to rebound pretty quickly.
"There's a lot of elective surgery that's been deferred, and when that activity rebounds the bill that is sent to us by the NSW government will be higher than what it is now.
"When we get the bill, we pay the cheque."
Mr Butler said Labor had discovered once in government that the Coalition had planned to abolish the GP after-hours service entirely next year after reducing its funding in 2021.
He expected the service to resume its full range of hours and locations at the Mater Hospital, John Hunter, Maitland, Belmont and Toronto in the next two months.
Paterson MP Meryl Swanson said the restored service could help reduce the pressure on the New Maitland Hospital emergency department.
Mr Butler said he expected a promised urgent care clinic at Cessnock Hospital, one of 50 around the nation, to open next year.
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