Although there are eight teams still playing the most important games of the NFL season, all teams—including the ones playing—are transitioning to offseason mode in the front offices. The business of the NFL soon moves in front of the games to be the top story, and multiple stories are already in play.
I found two coaching situations and two upcoming quarterback negotiations particularly interesting. Here are my insights.
Skirting the Rooney Rule
The New England Patriots made the first hire of the 2025 coaching carousel when they brought back former player Mike Vrabel to replace another former-player-turned-head coach, Jarod Mayo, who was dismissed after just one season. Vrabel was a consultant with the Cleveland Browns this season after being fired by the Tennessee Titans, and found himself in demand.
The Patriots hired Vrabel soon after a couple of interviews with two Black former assistant coaches, Pep Hamilton and Byron Leftwich, the only interviews they received. Another Black coach, Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, turned down an opportunity to interview with the Patriots while agreeing to all other requests. Glenn’s decline was a telling sign. He’s no dummy; he knew the Patriots were enamored with Vrabel and had no interest in wasting his time.
This is the largely unfixable problem with the Rooney Rule. There is no rule that is going to solve this problem: an owner wants a certain person to be his head coach and nothing on God’s green earth is going to stand in the way of that. When that happens, every other interview—whether someone is Black, white or green—is going to be a sham interview.
I know the response, which is to always point to Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and say you never know if someone not thought to be a serious candidate will “knock the socks off” of the decision-makers. But Tomlin, hired two decades ago, is the exception, not the rule.
Vrabel may be a wonderful head coach for the Patriots and may be absolutely the right choice. But let’s not kid ourselves: That was not a hire that was in serious compliance with the Rooney Rule.
Cowboys on brand with McCarthy
Jerry Jones’s mode of operations, which has been his hallmark with player contract negotiations over the past year, was very much on display with his now-former coach, Mike McCarthy. Jones waited and waited, and did not address the situation until the absolute deadline. In contrast to the player negotiations with stars such as CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott—both deadline deals at the top of the market—this negotiation did not reach a contract, and McCarthy left as a free agent.
My sense is that McCarthy did not go into negotiations with Jones at a disadvantage. He and his agent, Don Yee, must have surveyed the openings and found some interest, which there is now from the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints. He could then talk to Jones with some confidence that if he didn’t like the tone of those discussions, he could easily walk away.
It’s been some 18 years since I was part of a management team that hired McCarthy in Green Bay. He has his warts, but is a creative offensive mind, a gruff leader from Pittsburgh (he talks often of a summer job being a toll collector on the Pennsylvania Turnpike) and has skins on the wall with playoffs and a Super Bowl win. That résumé puts him on a short list; he will continue to have options.
Darnold’s future: relax, assess
A few weeks ago, there was much discussion about Sam Darnold being a potential $50 million per year player, after playing for a bargain $10 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings this season. Now there is discussion about the market being pillow-soft for Darnold and the Vikings moving on to J.J. McCarthy, their first-round pick who missed his rookie season with an injury.
Both views are recency bias at their best. Once we get to late February and early March, there will be a more reasoned analysis to assess the past and project the future. This is how teams operate; not in the roller-coaster reaction world of fans and media.
I think Darnold will have a decent-sized market if he’s allowed to enter free agency (and not franchise tagged). There are scarce quarterbacks in their mid-20s with production on the free market; there will be interest. Will it be at the top level of $50 million per year? Probably not. But it will be a far cry from the $10 million he made this year.
As for the Vikings, they have an interesting decision with McCarthy coming back. They could move right to him, have another “bridge” quarterback (that could be former New York Giant Daniel Jones), or that bridge quarterback could be Darnold playing under a franchise tag of roughly $41 million.
As for another pending contract negotiation …
Purdy to be paid, but leverage on both sides
Brock Purdy, the last pick in the 2021 draft, has provided the San Francisco 49ers incredible value the past three years, a starter barely making $1 million while his peers are making up to 50 times that number. Now that the CBA finally allows him to renegotiate—drafted players are restricted until after the player’s third season—it is obviously time to pay Purdy more appropriate wages.
While Purdy appears to be in line to make top-of-market money, the 49ers do still have some leverage, and it is based on that rookie contract, which still has a year left at barely over $1 million. Thus, the 49ers can negotiate knowing that Purdy can take their deal or go back to his $1 million salary and roll the dice. In other words, they don’t necessarily need to pay the $50 million per year rate. Purdy is not going to turn down a deal averaging, say, $35 million to $40 million per year with, say, $50 million in 2025, when his alternative is to play for $1 million.
NFL rookie contracts are management’s gift that keeps on giving.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Business of Football: Patriots Expose Problem With Rooney Rule.
