Before we head into the offseason, I’ll explain my Super Bowl prediction that was spot-on, with some genuine surprise that more people didn’t see the game that way. I also have some insights on some notes around the business of the NFL from Super Bowl week related to Myles Garrett, a potential 18th regular-season game and more.
Not a predictor, but this was easy
Before, during and after the recently completed Super Bowl, I was asked often about my predictions, made at The MMQB as well as other places, that the Philadelphia Eagles would win handily and that Patrick Mahomes would have one of his worst games ever. Now I am back here, not to take a victory lap—although I have done that by retweeting the plaudits about my predictions—but still with some surprise that I was one of the only NFL analysts predicting such a result. And as you know, I am certainly not, nor have ever claimed to be, an X’s and O’s guy. I have never been, nor wanted to be, a scout or personnel evaluator. But sometimes with a game such as this, one must just look past the noise and focus on sheer ability.
I relied on a simple equation: talent. The Eagles had a personnel and talent advantage at every position except quarterback and perhaps kicker. And they negated the quarterback advantage with their vastly superior talent on the defensive line compared to the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line. I did not think that particular matchup was going to be a fair fight, and it was not. Mahomes was running for his life for the entire game, and the Eagles didn’t blitz once.
I also felt that the Chiefs were winning with subtle advantages from coaching and Mahomes and had not played a team like the Eagles. While most focused on the glitz of the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings or whatever other team was hot this year, the Eagles were a juggernaut that lost only once since September, and that was the game Hurts left early with an injury. When they play poorly, they still win. When they play decently, they win by a good margin. And when they put it together like they did Sunday, they dominate. They have no weaknesses.
Kudos to the Chiefs for somehow winning all the games they did with that offensive line and those skill players. But Mahomes Magic only goes so far.
Myles Garrett wants out..good luck with that
The Cleveland Browns have two blue-chip players on their team: Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett. Now Chubb is a free agent and Garrett, with two years left on his contract, wants out.
NFL superstars like Garrett may have some leverage, but it is nowhere near the leverage that NBA superstars have. Part of that is due to the NFL’s franchise tag, but part of it is due to NFL players—like Garrett—taking long contracts (he signed his current one in 2020) to maximize signing bonus and guarantees, even though those guarantees run out after one or two years. NFL stars have none of the opt-outs or free agency activators that NBA or MLB players have.
Were Garrett an NBA player, he would definitely be traded. But he works in the NFL. Remember when Aaron Rodgers wanted a trade out of Green Bay in 2021? The Packers essentially said, “Well, that’s nice. No.” NBA players can essentially trade themselves, NFL players cannot.
Of course, the Browns have the NFL’s largest albatross around their necks with the Deshaun Watson contract. They mortgaged the past, present and future for a player that not only had character issues but, it seems, has performance issues. And it has certainly been one of the reasons that Garrett is now publicly demanding an exit ramp from that organization.
Eighteenth game not a given
As noted here before, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has spoken almost cavalierly about adding an 18th game to the regular season, as if changing the format from three preseason and 17 regular-season games to two preseason and 18 regular-season games is the same thing. Goodell’s casual approach to the change led me to believe that he wasn’t concerned about any resistance from the players’ union. Well, that resistance has now come.
At the NFL Players’ Association annual press conference, new leader Lloyd Howell Jr. pushed back on the 18th game, already more than former leader DeMaurice Smith did when the union gave up the 17th game in 2020. I remember, during those CBA negotiations, players were asking me how something once nonnegotiable for them—the17th game—was somehow land-grabbed by the owners, a massive give without anything meaningful in return.
If and when there is bargaining on an 18th game, I would hope the NFLPA seeks to secure real concessions, not just an extra bye week or two; those are easy gives from the owners. I am talking about something more tangible such as a better revenue split like 50-50 without all the revenue exclusions (club seat revenue, naming rights revenue, etc), or limits on the franchise tag or increased minimum team spending.
Kudos to Howell for responding to Goodell’s nonchalance on an 18th game.
Chip Kelly winning the business of football
In the past three years, Kelly has gone from being head coach at UCLA to offensive coordinator at Ohio State to now offensive coordinator of the Las Vegas Raiders under new head coach Pete Carroll. And from my view, it seems like his life is improving personally and professionally.
Kelly left the Wild West of college football—where there is free agency every year and no salary cap—to head back to the regulated system of the NFL, where he was head coach of the Eagles a decade ago, and most recently one season with the San Francisco 49ers. And he will make a record salary to boot—an eye-popping $6 million per year—that leads the league for assistant coaches.
I remember when Kelly brought his college-style offense to the NFL with some strong early results. And he was the first NFL head coach to implement a lot of the now-common sports science concepts, as Eagles players—over 10 years ago—were being tracked for sleep, recovery, load management, etc. Kelly was truly ahead of his time and a true winner in the business of football.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Business of Football: Eagles’ Talent Differential Was Too Much for Chiefs.
