It’s difficult to think of a bigger game in the recent history of Everton Football Club than the one they face on Wednesday night. Frank Lampard’s side travel to Burnley in a fixture that could seal the fate of both sides in this year’s battle for Premier League survival.
Going into the clash, the Toffees sit 17th and three points clear of the relegation zone, with two games in hand over Watford in 18th. However, opponents Burnley have played the same number of matches and are just four points behind, meaning victory for them would close the gap to just one point with both teams having played the same number of matches.
That’s a daunting prospect for Everton, particularly given the difficult fixtures that lie ahead in these final weeks of the season. Alternatively though, the game also presents the Blues with a huge opportunity to open up a seven-point gap on their hosts, and a six-point one on Watford in the relegation zone - with a game in hand. A victory would therefore be huge in Everton’s bid for survival.
READ MORE: Everton line-ups as Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Seamus Coleman decisions made
READ MORE: Alex Iwobi 'mistake' comments correct as Everton truth emerges
With that in mind, there’s one decisive factor that tends to be crucial in Burnley matches, and that’s who scores the game’s first goal. The opening goal of a game is often important and multiple studies have determined in the Premier League, the team who scores first tends to win the match 7/10 times. Burnley have only managed to score first in eight of their 28 league matches so far, but did go on to avoid defeat in six of those games.
Yet their record when conceding first is a very poor one and Sean Dyche’s men are one of just two Premier League sides still yet to have won a league game from behind this season (D5, L13). A big cause of this is their issues in attack.
Burnley have scored just 22 goals all season - only Norwich have netted fewer. And the task of scoring goals becomes that bit harder when teams secure a lead as they can then afford to sit back and defend in greater numbers.
Therefore what this means from an Everton point of view is that on Wednesday night, should Lampard’s men strike first, then recent history would suggest that they’d be in an excellent position to come away with at least a point.
Fast starts have rarely been a feature of Everton’s game so far this season, in fact no side has scored fewer first-half goals than their total of eight. Yet Lampard needs to do all he can to get his side firing on all cylinders from the outset at Turf Moor, because the same might be decisive in both securing a victory and maybe even Premier League survival.
