It seems a strange case to make, given his team’s record against South Africa, but Gregor Townsend will be confident of causing a seismic upset in the first round of the World Cup.
Scotland last beat the Springboks in November 2010 when Dan Parks kicked every point in a 21-17 win at Murrayfield. Since then the world champions have won by an average of 20 points across seven Tests. But if Finn Russell gets enough space to work his magic, and if Scotland’s forwards can stand up to the Springbok pack, and if Duhan van der Merwe can get enough ball in space then they have a chance.
That’s a lot of ifs for the third-ranked side in the toughest group in World Cup history that also includes the top-seeded Ireland. Few neutrals have given Scotland much hope of progressing to the knockouts.
They are getting the respect they deserve though, and there is widespread recognition that their backline has enough firepower to blow away any of the title contenders when things start getting loose. It is just that in the nasty areas at the frontlines of the scrum, maul and lineout, few can match the grunt of the Boks’ heavies.
Rory Darge’s selection in the back row points to a frenetic game plan where quick ball at the back of the ruck and swift transitions will be the aim. That may keep Russell at arm’s length from the fly-half-seeking missile that is Pieter-Steph du Toit and allow him to distribute from the front foot. “He’s a magician,” South Africa’s versatile back Damian Willemse said of Russell. “He’s one of the best in the world when it comes to making plays. We know he can pull anything out of the hat.”
Scotland have other options and whichever team dominates the terrain in the wide channels will gain a significant advantage. South Africa have named two diminutive, scrum-cap wearing wingers in Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse. Both are among the hottest steppers in the game and lethal finishers. But they are vulnerable under a contestable high ball and Van der Merwe, who attended the same high school as South Africa’s fly-half, Manie Libbok, has been plucking pills from the air with unnerving efficiency in training all week. He is clearly expecting to have his eyes pointing to the Marseille skies and will fancy his chances against a back three that might be unkindly described as lightweight.
Of course Van der Merwe won’t want to be leaping skyward all afternoon. Since his Test debut in October 2020 he has beaten 173 defenders in 31 Tests. After last night’s performance, France’s Damian Penaud is a distant second on this metric with 88, while Scotland’s other winger, Darcy Graham, is not far behind on 82. That is an astonishing statistic that supports the pledge made by the team captain, Jamie Ritchie, that Scotland will play “the fastest rugby in the world”.
“We want to play quickly,” Ritchie says. “We have self-belief and know that if we perform on our day we can beat anyone in the group. We have done well with an underdog tag until now but to be honest I don’t think we need it. I firmly believe if we perform to the best of our abilities we can win all the games in this group.”
At first glance this might appear to be a collision of two contrasting styles – South African monsters against Scottish free-wheelers. And while that reductive view held some truth in the past, it needs an upgrade in light of a newfound zeal in the Springboks attack with Libbok proving that a combine harvester can perform circus tricks with the right driver at the wheel.
Only three fly-halves – Russell among them – have provided more try-assists than Libbok since he made his debut in November last year. In that time he has the fourth-most line-break assists and is joint-second with personal line-breaks. Most impressive of all is that despite carrying from only 11% of his touches, he makes an average of 51.9 metres with ball in hand per game, more than any other player in his position.
Scotland will want to play a frenetic, open game in the hope of running South Africa ragged but they will meet a backline that can land blows of their own. Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel form a formidable defensive wall in the midfield and will target Scotland’s narrow ball carriers. With jackals on the prowl, any turnover ball will be swiftly spiralled away from the maw and into the path of jet-heeled dazzlers.
World Cup matches tend to congeal into attritional affairs. This one could break out in a breathless melee in Marseille.
