Bulgaria's foreign and energy ministers resigned on Monday after their party, the populist ITN, quit the governing coalition last week, compounding the Balkan country's political crisis.
Prime Minister Kiril Petkov has said he will try to secure parliamentary support for a minority government. However, analysts say new elections in the autumn could be on the cards for the European Union's poorest member state.
ITN left the shaky, four-party coalition six months after it was formed, citing disagreement over policies ranging from whether Bulgaria should unlock North Macedonia's European Union accession talks to anti-corruption legislation in one of the EU's most graft-ridden countries.
Foreign Minister Teodora Genchovska and Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov stepped down in a nod to the decision of ITN to exit the ruling coalition. The two other ITN ministers, who oversaw regional development and sports, quit last week.
Petkov, unable to rely on any of the opposition parties for help, has been counting on support from at least 12 ITN lawmakers, hoping to avoid new elections amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and with inflation running at a 14-year high.
But Daniel Smilov of the Sofia-based Centre for Liberal Strategies was sceptical. "The chances for Petkov to find support and strengthen his governance seem less likely at present," he said.
"The opposition parties and ITN could also try to form a new government in this parliament, but for the time being, new polls in the autumn look like the most probable outcome."
The political turmoil could also increase risks to energy supply in Bulgaria, which is wholly reliant on gas imports.
The government is in talks with a U.S. company to secure long-term natural gas supplies after Russia cut its deliveries over Sofia's refusal to pay in roubles. No contract has been signed yet.
The uncertainty could also complicate Bulgaria's tapping of billions of euros from the EU's post-pandemic recovery fund, and its entry into the euro currency zone, targeted for 2024.
The first test for Petkov will come with pending votes in the parliament on changes to the 2022 budget.
The opposition centre-right GERB party of former premier Boyko Borissov has said it plans to file a no-confidence motion against the government after the budget vote.
(Reporting by Tsvetelia Tsolova; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
