Bulgarians are gearing up to participate in their seventh general election in just over three years as the country grapples with mounting political uncertainty. The ongoing instability has the potential to bolster the appeal of pro-Russian and far-right factions within the political landscape.
Since 2021, Bulgaria has witnessed six elections, with only two resulting in the formation of a government. However, both coalitions collapsed in their attempts to implement reforms, combat corruption, and reduce dependence on Russia.
The most recent election in June failed to produce a clear winner, leading to a fragmented legislature comprising seven groups that were unable to forge a viable coalition. Observers anticipate a similar outcome in the upcoming vote, with prospects for an immediate resolution to the political deadlock appearing slim.
Pollsters are predicting low voter turnout due to fatigue and disillusionment with the political system, potentially resulting in another fractured parliament where populist and pro-Russian entities could see an uptick in representation.
Analysts have raised concerns about potential irregularities in the voting process, including instances of parties offering cash for votes and external pressures from local authorities or corporations influencing voters' choices.
The political landscape in Bulgaria has been marred by instability since 2020, marked by widespread protests against corrupt politicians enabling oligarchs to wield control over state institutions. As one of the poorest and most corrupt EU member states, Bulgaria faces significant challenges in combating graft, particularly within a judiciary accused of serving political interests.
Experts suggest that the upcoming parliament may struggle to reach a widely acceptable compromise, with the country's vulnerability exacerbated by regional conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Three main groups of parties are expected to enter the next Parliament: kleptocratic parties, defenders of justice and liberal democracy, and those openly supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite the ongoing political turmoil, there is a possibility of a government forming between democratic and kleptocratic parties that maintain pro-European and pro-Ukraine stances.
While recent elections have yielded similar outcomes, the current election is poised to introduce changes to the political landscape, with long-standing parties like the Socialists and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms facing internal rifts and challenges.
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, traditionally representing the ethnic Turkish vote, recently split into two factions, one led by party founder Ahmed Dogan and the other by businessman and media tycoon Delyan Peevski.
