One week to go. And the mailbag is stocked with draft questions …
From Bucks26 (@buckOH26): Panthers really locked in on Bryce?
Bucks, I think this one’s in the bag. Bryce Young isn’t a perfect prospect by any means, but he’s the best one in a pretty good lot. And relative to other first picks (consider what Baker Mayfield entered into with the Browns or Kyler Murray with the Cardinals, or even what Jared Goff, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence had at the start), Young should have a pretty good chance to hit the ground running in Charlotte.
The offensive line, anchored by second-year left tackle Ickey Ekwonu has a shot to be among the best in football. The run game rolled at the end of last year, and the defense has a chance to be really good, which would mean the Panthers would need less from their offense. Young will also get an offensive brain trust led by Frank Reich, and with Jim Caldwell, Thomas Brown and Josh McCown in it.
Even better, because the trade was done so early, with seven weeks of runway to the draft, that staff has had plenty of time to consider what it could do for a rookie quarterback in general and, more recently, for Young in particular.
From Antonio (@Antoniooo_92): Odds on Rodgers trade happening during the draft?
Antonio, I’d say because a foundational piece of the trade will be the 42nd or 43rd pick, chances are very high that Rodgers will become a Jet between now and early Friday night.
This thing has been close for a few weeks now. And like I’ve said, at this point, it comes down to the people signing the checks. As the Jets see it, there needs to be some level of protection against injury or a downturn in play creating a situation like the one the Broncos are in now—with the Seahawks holding the fifth and 37th picks as part of the Russell Wilson trade, and thanks to their catastrophic 2022 season. The Packers, meanwhile, are determined to come away with value for an all-time great.
Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
Both teams, by the way, and the bosses who were there (Woody Johnson and Mark Murphy) are marked by the Brett Favre experience of 2008, one in which the Jets felt like they were used as a way station for Favre to get to Minnesota, while the Packers felt like they got played by their Hall of Fame quarterback. So eventually, both will have to get past that.
There are smart solutions that the GMs have discussed here, too. One would be making the 2024 pick conditional on the Jets’ making the playoffs, the conference title game or Super Bowl—ensuring that pick would be a first-rounder if the trade works for them and a high second if it doesn’t. Another would be allowing for a giveback pick in ’25 if Rodgers plays only a single season for the Jets. Either way, this should be done for now. The fact that it isn’t shows that history does matter in a transaction as big as this one.
From andrew culotta (@andrewculotta): Who should the Eagles draft vs who DO the Eagles draft? Considering possible (likely) draft day trades etc.?
Andrew, the Eagles are in a good spot. They’ve got their quarterback done long term and, so long as Jalen Hurts keeps ascending (his makeup is a big part of why they trust this won’t be a Carson Wentz redux), they have a level of certainty now in the contracts they’ll be building around the next few years. Older stars like Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson will filter out. Philadelphia will bet on Hurts, of course, and then deal with contracts like A.J. Brown’s, Jordan Mailata’s, and Dallas Goedert’s, plus more coming, like DeVonta Smith’s.
That means, simply, that they’ll have to do what the Chiefs have done the last two years and start to amass more draft capital, then use that capital to fill out key role-player spots on their roster (nine of Kansas City’s 10 draft picks were active for all three of its playoff games, and four started all of them). And this year, as I see it, the Eagles are in position to do that, if they can find a way to trade down a couple of times. They’ve got only six picks total, but four in the top 100, two of which are in the first round.
Now, if Jalen Carter falls into their lap at No. 10, I think they should, and will, seriously consider taking a guy who could be Cox’s heir as Philly’s 3-technique. Having the strong veteran locker room the Eagles do, plus well-respected, former Carter teammates in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean (the Eagles are very high on both), puts the team in a unique spot to get the best talent in the draft class on the right path to a long, productive NFL career.
But absent that? I think the Eagles will try to trade down from 10 and from 30, and maybe even move some picks into next year. If the right defensive linemen or corner falls into their lap with the first of those picks—and that might be Carter, Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez—then maybe that would become too much to pass up. But my guess would be Howie Roseman would prefer to fall a few picks back, land a Joey Porter Jr. at corner or a Myles Murphy–type edge rusher and pick up some more capital.
That would be the logical thing to do, based on the enviable place that Eagles reside in.
From Socially Distanced Dad (@jz53232621): Will the Raiders stay at 7 and draft bpa or move up for qb or back for more picks?
Dad, I’d say best player available, and the two guys that are interesting first to me for the Raiders, based on where Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler are at in building the team up, would be Northwestern OL Peter Skoronski and Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon. And that starts with the fact that both are exactly what that Raiders’ brain trust is looking for from a cultural standpoint.
The biggest problem with Skoronski, really, goes to positional value. I thought going into my draft research, I’d find a few teams that saw the Wildcats star as more of a guard than a tackle. Turns out, almost everyone I talk to thinks Northwestern’s left tackle should be playing inside in the NFL. Now, he projects to be a Zack Martin–type of guard. Skoronski would give the Las Vegas line more edge in that way, but are you O.K. taking a guard at No. 7?
Then, there’s Witherspoon—who’s tough as nails, who kept getting better as a collegian, who built himself into the best corner in the Big Ten and who played for former McDaniels staffmate Bret Bielema at Illinois. The issue? He’s 5'10". So do you draft a 5'10" corner at No. 7?
That, in a lot of ways, is indicative of the top of this year’s draft, which includes a lot of quality prospects, but none who check every box. And that leaves the Raiders, and the other teams at the top, with some interesting decisions to make (that’ll also be instructive in showing everyone else where they’re willing to compromise a little).
From FF_Chief (@FF_Chief13): When will you announce DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs?
Chief, no announcements from me yet.
But I think at the right price, the Chiefs would absolutely work to get DeAndre Hopkins aboard. The question, to me, really amounts to how far down Hopkins is willing to come from his $19.45 million number for this year. He’ll be 31 in June, and he could take less on a one-year deal to chase a ring with Patrick Mahomes and, potentially, set himself up for one last bite of the financial apple in 2024.
Regardless of whether it’s Hopkins or someone else, I’d expect Kansas City to add a receiver of some significance—be it in the draft or on the veteran market—to a group that’s already got Marques Valdez-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore in its ranks.
From Jeremy Friedrichs (@FriedrichsJk): Hey Albert, what percentage of player transactions have to get o.k.’d by an owner? Do all owners have veto power or is it team by team basis?
Jeremy, that really depends on the level of interest the owner has in football ops. In some cases (I’d say the Saints and Vikings are this way), the owner gives almost full autonomy to the GM and coach on football matters. In others (the Cowboys are one, of course), the owner is in the trenches on a good percentage of the team’s football transactions.
I’d say with most owners, it’s in the middle. Carolina’s handling of this year’s draft is a good example of it. Owners David and Nicole Tepper were on the ground for some (Ohio State, Alabama), but not all (Florida, missed part of Kentucky), of the quarterback pro days after trading up for the first pick. My feeling is if the Panthers had the first pick already, and it wasn’t going to be a quarterback, you wouldn’t see the Teppers flying all over the place for it. Shad Khan, for example, didn’t do that in Jacksonville last year.
From Rubix Cube Sports (@RubixCubeSports): What do you think Detroit does at No. 6? CB or Carter if he is available?
Rubix Cube, Carter with the Lions, given the makeup of the staff and program in Detroit, would be fascinating. I think there are stylistic similarities in the way Dan Campbell runs his program and how Carter’s college coach, Kirby Smart, runs his. So I actually am intrigued by the idea that Carter could be a fit alongside Aidan Hutchinson for the next decade.
But, yeah, if you made me pick this second, I’d give them Witherspoon at No. 6. He’s a good cultural fit, at a position of need. It would make a lot of sense.
From Alex Ontkos (@ontkos): Do the Eagles draft Bijan at No. 10 if Carter and Anderson are gone?
Alex, I doubt it. Some history for you here …
• Howie Roseman joined the Eagles in 2000. Since then, through 23 drafts, Philly has taken just five backs with top 100 picks: Brian Westbrook (91st, ’02), Ryan Moats (77th, ’05), Tony Hunt (90th, ’07), LeSean McCoy (53rd, ’09) and Miles Sanders (53rd, ’19). None of them went in the top 50 picks.
• Since Roseman was elevated to general manager in 2010, Sanders is the only top 100 pick at the position, and the Eagles just let him walk, unwilling to pay him the $6 million per year that he’s getting in Carolina.
• Over their last 10 drafts, the Eagles have picked just four backs, period: Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell (150th, 2021), Donnell Pumphrey (132nd, ’17), and Wendell Smallwood (153rd, ’16).
• There are backstories, too, of Philly moving away from the position in the draft in general. One was from the 2007 draft, when they took Hunt in the third round. The story goes that the Eagles had five critical, analytical factors for the position, based on past history. Hunt was 0-for-5 on those, but the Eagles liked his tape so much they took him anyway. The former Penn Stater rushed for 25 yards in a two-year NFL career.
That should tell you what you need to know.
And by the way, I don’t even think this is about how good Robinson is. He’s arguably right there with Carter as the best talent in the class. It’s about how replaceable players at the position are. It’s just too easy to find good ones. Last year’s Chiefs provide a good example of it, with seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco starting the Super Bowl, and 2020 first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire a healthy scratch for that game.
You remember where the Chiefs’ coach worked before, right?
From BeeJay (@BthaKidd_): Does Budda Baker get traded to the Eagles before training camp?
I don’t think new Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort is planning to trade Baker.
Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports
But … if someone offers a second-round pick and something else? Maybe. For what it’s worth, I don’t think this is just about money for Baker. I think it’s also about not wanting to start all over again, with a new head coach for the fourth time in his career. Baker wants to win and can still really play. We had a lot more on this one in Monday’s MMQB Takeaways, if you wanna take a look.
From Jason Kroulik (@crowlick): What is happening at No. 2 in the draft?!?
Jason, I really think this is about the Texans considering everything at No. 2, rather than just locking in on a quarterback. My understanding is DeMeco Ryans has communicated his experience with the 49ers in building up a great defense, and how it allowed for the team to get by through a litany of injury issues at quarterback, to Nick Caserio and his scouts. Caserio, for his part, has never been part of a team that took a quarterback higher than 62nd.
Both of them are on six-year deals (Caserio is in the third year of his), so it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that they’d look at this year’s class, with Young likely off the board when they pick, compare it to next year’s class, headed by USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye, and choose to take a defensive star instead—either Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson.
Is it a little risky? Sure. But there’s merit to the idea, especially if the two in charge aren’t completely sold on C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson.
From Matt (@CommandersCov): Any players Washington is being connected to?
Matt, stay tuned for next Monday’s column.
Zach, fun idea. No chance. As long as Sean McVay’s there, I think you can forget about there being any sort of tank job, short as the Rams’ roster might be here in mid-April.
