It's time to look at the big picture for the flailing, lost Padres. In a 162-game season, offensive slumps routinely amount to micro problems. They come. They go.
The Padres find themselves facing a full-blown macro problem … in 2023 and potentially beyond.
This has grown into far more than a confusing and confounding head-scratcher. This feels DNA-deep for a franchise guaranteed to hit the 81-game midpoint with a losing record, despite contracts at third base, shortstop and right field that eclipse the gross domestic product of Turks & Caicos.
Since President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller arrived in August 2014, the Padres have finished above .500 once in seven full seasons (2022). In his first five seasons, the franchise got no closer to break even than 14 games underwater in 2015.
Excluding last season and the 60-game pandemic lap in 2020, the remaining six laps average 19.3 games south of level.
The Padres tried splash in 2015, signing Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields, Wil Myers and Derek Norris. In the wake of that failed experiment, they rebuilt the farm system from the ground up before draining it to create this lineup.
The franchise made an unprecedented international push of $80 million in 2016, a bold stroke they expected to pay major dividends, with only the fingers-crossed potential of Adrian Morejon to show for it.
Then they spent and spent and spent as to reach the finish line. Eric Hosmer. Manny Machado. Fernando Tatis Jr. Juan Soto. Xander Bogaerts. Jake Cronenworth. What has the blizzard of bucks gotten owner Peter Seidler? A first-half loser.
Questions about those pricey long-term deals, along with player development misfires, loom over this season and seasons to come. As the All-Star break arrives, the Padres need to ask bigger questions that go beyond the dugout.
What about the button-pushers and lever-pullers who reshaped and sank money into all corners of the franchise the last nine years? A season that began with a euphoric and intoxicating FanFest has earned a soundtrack of boos at Petco Park.
Yes, it's on the players. If you're paid the mountain of money Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts and Soto command, you have to produce. That's the bottom line.
Through all the stages of building these Padres, though, it seems as if they've tried everything. They hired managers. They fired managers. They plugged in new hitting coaches. They kicked a busload to the curb. They've thrown shocking fistfuls of money at winning.
And yet …
Multiple players told Union-Tribune colleague Kevin Acee they cannot pinpoint solutions for what continues to be a slow, steady bleed this season. If they don't know, who does?
They're locked into contracts that have them cornered, particularly given the bruised farm system. Tatis is here until 2034. Machado and Bogaerts are anchored through 2033. Cronenworth is inked through 2030.
If that lack of flexibility moving forward does not scream win now, what does?
Considering the dollars and lengths of deals involved, how would the Padres move those contracts if needed? That's why a 2023 problem could and does feel like more.
This season, the Padres own championship-caliber starting pitching. They trot out championship-caliber defense. They deploy enough pieces and production in the bullpen.
So far, it's all been wasted … set aflame by the inability to hit with runners on, to hit in the clutch, to consistently hit, period. They don't win when the other team scores first. They don't win when they wade into extra innings. They don't win when tomato cans like the Royals and Nationals limp into San Diego.
The current questions needle. The bigger issues border on outright alarm.
Why do so many players regress when the plane lands in San Diego? Hosmer. Adam Frazier. Josh Bell. There are plenty more. Who's gotten better in San Diego? Trent Grisham? Austin Nola? Ha-Seong Kim is a success story as he grows more valuable by the day, but it's a short offensive list.
Some fans grumble about manager Bob Melvin. If Melvin were to go — a ridiculous notion, coming off an NLSC trip with a sterling track record — it would be the third jettisoned manager in barely more than four seasons.
That would reek of been-there, done-that desperation.
Given all the big swings, acquisitions, spending and resets — the only position players left in the clubhouse since 2019 are Machado and Tatis — a more profound hunt for answers remains. After all the years and shuffling, who's left to blame?
If 2023 continues its painful slide, the crosshairs firmly affix on Preller and baseball operations. The group has proven to be elite talent evaluators, but what happens when the franchise tries to mold all that wet clay into something more?
The Padres did not pay nearly $250 million for an outside chance at a wild-card spot. They did not unload a princely sum to be out of the hunt in the NL West before July dawns.
The resources have been there. The results?
The fate of 2023 rests in the hands of the big bats at the top of the lineup, without a doubt. But given all the years to get to this point, based on an ownership leash unlike any other, bigger questions linger.
Start here: The Padres can spend money, but can they build and sustain a winner?
As the second half nears with a major mountain to climb, that's about as macro as you get.
