The Brumbies are the sole Australian side left in the Super Rugby Pacific semi-finals this weekend, and they believe a combination of recent performances — including their 35-25 quarter-final win over the Hurricanes in Canberra — leaves them in good stead.
They'll face the Blues in Auckland on Saturday, after they disposed of the Highlanders 35-6 at Eden Park.
After finishing the regular season first, the Blues retain finals hosting rights so long as they keep winning.
Meanwhile, the second-placed Crusaders will host the third -placed Chiefs in Christchurch on Friday night, after the Crusaders wore the Queensland Reds down to progress with a 37-15 win, and the Chiefs blew the NSW Waratahs away in a dominant first half, going on to win 39-15.
The top four teams on the table all won through to the second week of finals in the end, and defence was the common denominator.
In a sign of how the competition tightened up over the closing stages, average tries per game went from more than eight tries in round 14, to exactly seven tries per game in Round 15, and then down again to six tries per game in the quarter-finals last weekend.
The Brumbies are now left flying the flag for Australia, something they can do with confidence after coming within seconds of beating the Blues in Canberra in Round 14 by completely controlling how the game was played through the second half.
They repeated this exact pattern on Saturday, wresting control of both game and scoreboard back from the Hurricanes after half-time and going on to win well.
And while they'll welcome back damaging backrower Rob Valetini – one of the form players in the competition before injuring a hamstring a month ago – mother nature might have handed them another timely advantage.
All last week, the weather in the nation's capital leading into the Hurricanes game was cold and wet, and has continued this week. And while the sun has been shining in Auckland for the first few day of the week, come Friday and the weekend, the forecast is for plummeting temperatures and puffer jackets at the ready.
As far as being ready for conditions and preparing accordingly, the Brumbies couldn't be any more acclimatised than they will be by kick-off on Saturday evening.
"It probably won't be quite as cold over there, but it'll be breezy and a bit wet. We didn't mind training in the same conditions last week, and we trained and played well, so I think it's good prep for us," Brumbies senior assistant coach Laurie Fisher said in Canberra this week.
The Brumbies have essentially been playing finals football for the last month, with the consistent pattern of low possession and a heavy defensive effort required in each of their past four games.
That's worked beautifully to sharpen their focus and ready them for the knockout stage of the competition; defence wins the big matches, as the old adage goes," Fisher said.
"They're no bigger than us.
"We've got a big forward pack but we've got to be prepared. We've just got to play a game that allows us to win collisions.
"So, maybe take a little bit of skill out of it and make sure you focus more on carry height, carry power, closer support, maybe try get a two on one or three on two in contact. Those sorts of things are less about the catch-pass skill and more about the skill of connecting and dominating."
"You don't beat a New Zealand side if you don't, at worst, match them in the collisions."
Beating an New Zealand team in a final across the ditch is something the Brumbies have never done before.
Most recently, they lost a semi-final to the Hurricanes in Wellington in 2015, also dropping the 2013 Final to the Chiefs in Hamilton. They've lost finals in Christchurch and Auckland as well.
On top of that, they haven't actually won at Eden Park in a long, long time.
"I don't think that many of us know what it takes to win over there, although I've got to say I was part of the coaching staff when we won over the Blues there on a cold, rainy night in 2013," Fisher said.
"I think a young Nic White scored a try that night. Maybe there's a good omen there."
Only a handful of senior Brumbies remain from that game, while James Slipper won at Eden Park with the Reds in 2012.
"There's players like myself that have been around for a while, [and] we haven't got the best track record there," Slipper said this week.
"It's a great stadium with great fans, so they're excited."
Valetini throws himself into contact, Ikitau 'shattered' to miss
Rob Valetini both "disappointed and excited" Brumbies coach Dan McKellar on the training track last week, such was his complete lack of moderation in throwing himself into contact, where returning hamstrings might typically be shown more restraint.
He's one of two changes the Brumbies have made for the semi, with midfielder Ollie Sapsford coming in for Len Ikitau, who wasn't able to beat his red card for high contact in last weekend's game.
His three-week suspension means his Super Rugby season is done, but he'll be right for the Wallabies' three-test series against England next month.
"Len's shattered. Really disappointed," McKellar said after naming his team before the Brumbies flew out for Auckland on Wednesday.
"We certainly thought there were mitigating factors, [but] the judicial panel didn't. Unfortunately, he misses out for the remainder of our season, but I thought Ollie Sapsford was really solid last week. Big body, physical, nice and direct. I think he's ready to go."
The Brumbies themselves feel they're ready to go. They took a lot out of the Blues needing a drop-goal after the fulltime siren in Canberra a few weeks ago, but their focus is now as sharp as it is simple.
"You play two good games of footy and you'll win a Championship," McKellar says.
"And that's a bond and a connection with this group for the rest of our lives."
