The Browns’ signature win of the Deshaun Watson era came Sunday without Watson. PJ Walker, the club’s de facto third-string quarterback, didn’t so much as win the game for the Browns but played in a manner that was just barely enough to prevent a loss (though I’m sure you, like me, cringed mightily when he nearly threw an end zone pick at the end of the fourth quarter before the game-winning field goal). Cleveland’s 19–17 win was also sealed when the 49ers missed a field goal at the buzzer.
Nevertheless, it brings up an important question that I wonder whether the Browns have asked themselves yet: Was bringing Watson aboard really worth it? Too soon? I don’t think so.
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Here’s another question: How much more fun would this team be to root for with Baker Mayfield under center? (The version we’re seeing in Tampa Bay, not the one with the shoulder injury that Cleveland forced out of town.) O.K., let’s leave the M-word out of this since it seems to be a touchy subject. What about another passer who was available between now and then? Kenny Pickett? Desmond Ridder? Malik Willis? Derek Carr? C.J. Stroud? Anthony Richardson? Ryan Tannehill? Jimmy Garoppolo? Aaron Rodgers?
Or, you know, the player Cleveland dealt to Arizona before the start of this season, Josh Dobbs? A football revolution led by a former Moneyball associate and quarterbacked by a damn rocket scientist? Does anyone have Michael Lewis’s phone number? (Side note: I know the Dobbs chariot is becoming a bit of a pumpkin the deeper we get into the season, but you know what I mean.)
I say this as a kind of backhanded compliment to the Browns’ team building effort. It worked! Sure, they were given tons of runway, a comical amount of draft equity, a tremendous amount of time to try to fail, and multiple coaching staffs, but they managed to build a hard-nosed, defensive football team perfectly suited for the rough and tumble AFC North. They beat the Niners without Nick Chubb. This offseason, they capped the project by buttressing Myles Garrett with a powerful interior and placing him under the tutelage of Jim Schwartz. The numbers bear this out: Schwartz, who comes with absolutely no baggage, was an infinitely more valuable acquisition than Watson has been so far. I just wonder how different life would have been had they tried to support Garrett and the true strength of the team (their running game and defensive front seven) before blaming the overall underperformance on the quarterback and heading down an avenue that cost them countless other free agents (in terms of cash) and valuable young players (in terms of the draft equity they surrendered).
With all due respect, the Browns have not won many games because of Watson. They have won them with Watson happening to be there. This week, Walker posted a paltry 45.2 quarterback rating, but Watson has been within 10 points of that number in two of his nine starts with the Browns so far. In two of his three starts to begin the 2023 season, Watson’s quarterback rating was 67 and 73, respectively. So, not that much better. As I predicted before the season, most of Watson’s improvements would likely come with an increased willingness to run the football, which is also not necessarily something you want to see with regularity from someone you are paying $250 million guaranteed dollars.
Heading into Week 6, Watson was 23rd among NFL quarterbacks in expected points added per snap. You could make the argument that Joe Burrow was lower, but that we didn’t make a similarly big deal about it because we know Burrow will eventually wind up as a top-10 player in the league. Indeed, the Browns acquired Watson because of the height of that ceiling. If this defense was combined with top-10 quarterback play, we would consider the Browns the way we do the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and the 49ers team they shocked on Sunday, when Cleveland handed San Francisco loss No. 1 on the season.
The problem is that, as our sample size grows, and Watson either ceases to be on the field, decides incredibly late that he cannot get on the field (thrusting a rookie fifth-round pick into action with little notice) or performs in a middling fashion on the field, it detracts from the true wins they’ve logged throughout this—borrowed term—odyssey from doormat to contender.
In order for some people to forget what Watson did and why he was available in the first place, he would have needed to be so good for so long that history could rewrite itself in the way it often (unfortunately) does. Instead, the Browns are good in a way that has almost nothing to do with the quarterback. That shouldn’t take away from a signature win. All the credit in the world goes to the people on the field Sunday. But, the Browns knew it was inevitable that eyes would be on the presumptive starter at all times no matter what. Watson’s absence, and everything they do with or without him on the field, matters.
