The Broncos vs. Chargers on Thursday night kicks off Week 16 and has huge playoff implications in the AFC out West.
The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers find themselves on the right side of the playoff bubble, but with wild-card spots at stake, there’s no room to relax.
The Broncos (9-5) and Chargers (8-6) sit sixth and seventh in the AFC playoff picture, with both teams looking to secure their postseason fate. Los Angeles, despite a strong 9-4-1 record against the spread, has stumbled lately, with three losses in four weeks and two failed covers. Still, the Chargers have thrived as favorites, covering 77.8% of the time, second only to Denver.
Led by emerging quarterback Bo Nix and a suffocating defense, the Broncos have posted the NFL’s best record against the spread (11-3), including an impressive 6-1 mark on the road. Yet, Denver has a score to settle—Week 6 saw the Chargers leave Mile High victorious as 3-point favorites.
With playoff positioning hanging in the balance, both teams will dig deep for this pivotal AFC West showdown. So let’s jump into our Broncos vs. Chargers expert picks.
Also, check out all of our NFL previews and picks!
Broncos vs. Chargers Betting Preview
All Broncos vs. Chargers odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct on Wednesday, Nov. 20.
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Moneyline: Broncos +130 | Chargers -140
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium | Inglewood, CA
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 63 degrees, Cloudy, 3 MPH Wind
- How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Broncos vs. Chargers Expert Picks, Predictions, and Best Player Prop Bets
Bo Nix has carried the weight of Denver’s offense in his rookie season, but now he faces a moment all young players eventually encounter: the “rookie wall.” The season grows longer, the challenges steeper, and the spotlight more intense. Without their most explosive running back, Denver leans on Nix once more, but this time against a Chargers defense built to stifle even the brightest stars.
In five games against top-13 defenses by DVOA, Denver has averaged just 13.2 points per game, a stark contrast to the 30 points they’ve posted against lesser competition. The Chargers present one of their toughest tests yet, a defense primed to disrupt.
Their Week 6 matchup produced just 39 combined points, and with Patrick Surtain II sidelined early in that game, the outlook here grows even dimmer. NFL totals hinge on key numbers, and at 41.5 or higher, the under seems not just a bet but a reflection of the grind both teams now face. For Denver, this isn’t just a game—it’s a test of resilience.
Ladd McConkey – WR, Chargers – Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
To win Thursday night, Justin Herbert must take to the air against Denver’s ironclad rush defense. The Broncos rank fifth in rushing yards allowed, fourth in yards per attempt, third in rushing first downs, and second in rushing touchdowns. Few defenses in the league dig in their heels like this one.
Denver’s pass defense, ranked sixteenth in yards allowed, presents a more vulnerable target—one Herbert and head coach John Harbaugh will look to exploit. While Herbert’s 2024 stats are slightly below his career averages, one player has emerged as a revelation: rookie Ladd McConkey.
Consider his growth:
- First six games: 44.2 receiving yards/game, 4.0 receptions/game, 11.04 yards/reception.
- Last seven games: 86.9 receiving yards/game, 5.57 receptions/game, 15.59 yards/reception.
The improvement is undeniable. McConkey has elevated his play and thrust himself into Offensive Rookie of the Year conversations while cementing his role as Herbert’s go-to target. Expect him to shine once again under the Thursday night lights.
Ladd McConkey ranks 2nd in the NFL in Win Rate Vs. Man (45.9%)
Anyway, here’s 50 seconds of Ladd McConkey cooking everyone on the field pic.twitter.com/UTIra8673X
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) December 18, 2024
Kimani Vidal – RB, Chargers – Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
We’ve already noted how tough this Broncos run defense has been. Now they get a Chargers backfield, which is still seeking its identity.
When J.K. Dobbins was placed on injured reserve after Week 12, many expected the Chargers’ backfield to become the stage for young talent like Vidal. But the anticipated breakout has yet to materialize. In the past three games, Vidal has managed just 15 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt. The lack of volume has capped his production, with Vidal exceeding his rushing yardage line only once this season.
Denver’s defense has played a significant role in frustrating opposing backs. Ranked second in EPA per rush allowed, the Broncos are a formidable force on the ground. They’ve also surrendered the third-lowest yards per carry (3.9) and limited explosive run plays to just 11%, placing Vidal’s challenge into sharp focus.
The Chargers will have to look for success through the air, which makes us love the under on some Chargers running props.
Denver @Broncos Defensive Ranks
NFL Rank
Points Allowed t-2nd
Yards Allowed 3rd
Yards per Play 2nd
Opp. 4th Down Conv % 1st
Opp. Goal to Go Efficiency 1st pic.twitter.com/qZ7Oe0o9PC— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 8, 2024
Best Bets:
- UNDER 41.5
- Ladd McConkey OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
- Kimani Vidal UNDER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
