When low-rated quarterbacks succeed in offenses designed to maximize their efficiency and explosiveness, we generally tag them with the pejorative “system quarterback” label, and we move on. What we tend to ignore in that decision is that every quarterback is a system quarterback. It is the rare quarterback who can consistently succeed despite a system that is not attuned to success in the passing game. We can always find contrary examples — think of Aaron Rodgers playing hero-ball because he had to in Mike McCarthy’s reductive playbooks for years — but passing games that work, work because there is an ideal marriage of quarterback and scheme.
This discussion has been surrounding San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy since Purdy became the team’s starter in Week 13 of the 2022 season. The then-rookie, famously the final player selected in the draft that year, has blossomed into the perfect distiller of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense, especially in recent weeks.
The Purdy debate seems to have two sides, with no middle — either he’s a widget of a system quarterback who is entirely fungible and replaceable, or he’s the next Joe Montana.
As is generally the case in these matters, the truth is far more nuanced.
The statistics are certainly impressive — as we head into Week 6, Purdy leads the league in passer rating (123.1). Passing DVOA (63.1%), Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (9.79), Passing EPA (51.96), Positive Play Rate (61.1%), Boom% (percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an EPA of at least 1; 30.6%) and his off-target throw rate of 11.0% is the NFL’s lowest.
As far as Purdy taking advantage of nothing but open windows, well…
How QBs have produced vs perfectly covered plays (x-axis), and non-perfectly covered plays (y-axis). Brock Purdy is the only QB with a positive EPA when every coverage player has done their job. Herbert has been the best QB at taking advantage of busted coverages this year pic.twitter.com/qXqkSiDV4y
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 11, 2023
And as the tape shows, there’s more to Purdy’s current success than just distributing the ball to wide-open guys in a near-perfect passing game. Yes, that’s part of it, but that’s the point guard part. That Purdy has also become a shooter, in basketball parlance, makes him one of the most interesting players at his position in the NFL.
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys went long on the Brock Purdy discussion, with the mind to separate perception from reality.
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” video right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…
…and Apple Podcasts.
Now, let’s reveal the truth of Brock Purdy, NFL shooting guard.
Making the tough throws that must be made.
There were three throws against the Dallas Cowboys in San Francisco’s 42-10 Sunday night win that showed Purdy’s development as a pure quarterback in different ways, and all three happened in the third quarter.
With 11:53 left in the third quarter, the 49ers had 22 personnel (two running backs and two tight ends), and fullback Kyle Juszczyk motioned from left to right so that San Francisco could flood Dallas’ defense to Purdy’s front side. But the throw was to receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who ran a deep dig, and Purdy had to throw the ball over linebacker Leighton Vander Esch’s head as Aiyuk was coming into frame, because cornerback Stephon Gilmore was following Aiyuk pretty well. That’s a throw any quarterback would be happy to have on his reel.
With 9:36 left in the third quarter, Purdy hit receiver Deebo Samuel for a 42-yard gain. The Cowboys showed single-high pre-snap, and then switched to Tampa-2. It was dagger — a vertical route coupled with a deep dig route. Vander Esch carried receiver Jauan Jennings all the way up on the vertical, and the read was Samuel on the dig. Purdy had that thing done in his head before it started, and he threw the ball to Samuel just as Samuel bent into his route. This is the kind of anticipation throw you expect from the NFL’s better quarterbacks. We talk at times about “see it and throw it” guys who must have the receiver in frame before they will turn it loose. Purdy has graduated beyond that.
And with 7:24 left in the third quarter, Purdy threw his third touchdown on the day to tight end George Kittle. I loved the design of this play. It was 22 personnel again, and they sent Juszczyk in motion to align with Kittle and tight end Charlie Woerner. It was basically motion to backside bunch, and Christian McCaffrey had a block on lineman Dorance Armstrong that made the play possible. From there, Purdy made a great touch throw to Kittle over the heads of several Dallas defenders. This was an ideal combination of quarterback and scheme. Yes, Kyle Shanahan dialed up a great way to flood Dallas’ coverage to that side, but you still have to make that throw, and Purdy did..
Winning outside structure.
Per Next Gen Stats, Purdy threw all four of his touchdown passes against the Cowboys from outside the tackle box, the most in a game in the NGS era. None of these plays were of the supremely athletic improvisational variety that you see from certain other quarterbacks, but there’s some compelling stuff here. One of these touchdowns was the flea-flicker to George Kittle, which Shanahan admitted that he put front of mind after seeing the Lions spam the Carolina Panthers with it earlier in the day.
“We just walked through it once. It’s been in for a while. We ran it in the NFC Championship last year, didn’t look as good. Christian [McCaffrey] was at quarterback, that was second half. Detroit ran it earlier in the day. They scored to [tight end Sam LaPorta] on it. So, something that we’ve had in for a little bit. We just walked through it every week and keep it up for when we needed to call it.”
Iowa tight ends, unite!
But it was Purdy’s first touchdown pass to Kittle, with 11:16 left in the first quarter, that really impressed from the perspective of a quarterback operating past the structure of the play. The 49ers were in 11 personnel (!!!), and Kittle ran the deep crosser from inline left to exploit the gaps in Dallas’ Cover-3. Purdy was pressured to his front side quickly by DeMarcus Lawrence, so he had to escape the pocket and extend the down. His throw to Kittle was on time and on target, and this wasn’t just an easy pass out of a clean pocket.
Consistency is the next step.
So, Purdy was outstanding against the Cowboys. But against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and against the New York Giants in Week 3, he had several inaccurate throws that could have bitten him in the hind end more than they did. Purdy was debited with two turnover-worthy plays in that two-game stretch, but the tape shows some real howlers.
Purdy had a missed connection with Samuel on a timing and rhythm throw here…
…and when you have a relatively clean pocket and a designed opening as Purdy did against the Rams… you can’t miss it.
Not that Shanahan was disgusted or anything — the day after the Giants game, he put Purdy’s relative struggles in context.
“After watching the film, I was even more impressed than I felt last night after the game. And we missed a number of blitz pickups where he had some free hitters in his face. I think that always makes it harder with accuracy and stuff, because you’re going to get the balls tipped and stuff if you throw it right. So you got to kind of avoid those things and I thought he hung in there, made few mistakes and had a hell of a game.”
Brock Purdy isn't totally transcendent, but he doesn't need to be.
The point is not whether Brock Purdy is a scheme-transcendent quarterback and a Tier One guy. The point is that he is the best distiller of Kyle Shanahan’s offense since Shanahan became the 49ers’ head coach and offensive shot-caller in 2017. And it’s irrelevant whether he would be this good in another offense. There are some quarterbacks with tools and traits to put Purdy’s to shame who also would not succeed, and have not succeeded, in Shanahan’s playbook. One needs to look no further than Trey Lance to tell that story.
Yes, Purdy plays within his coaches’ structures. That’s what he’s supposed to do. And yes, Purdy’s coaches make things as “easy” for him as possible for his specific skills. That’s what they’re supposed to do. And he’s expanding his passing palette in an offense that’s harder for a quarterback to execute than we may think.
Beyond the discussion of where Purdy ranks in the QB Pantheon at any given time, the positive equation in this case is the only thing that really matters.
