With the UK General Election over we can expect a fair amount of attention on the US presidential election between now and November.
The race looks close, or certainly closer than it was before Joe Biden announced his intention not to seek a second term.
The polls are narrowing and there appears to be an enthusiasm for the contest amongst US Democrats today that simply wasn’t there a month ago.
If the UK was a US state, Democrats might feel more optimistic about their prospects.
It would be the biggest state in the Union and Vice President Kamala Harris would surely carry it.
Ipsos polling today shows 6 in 10 Brits unfavourable towards Donald Trump, with Harris the preferred winner in November by a margin of 50 per cent to 21 per cent.
Not that Brits expect Harris to win.
When asked who they think is most likely to win in November, 49 per cent say Trump and just 22 per cent Harris.
Expectations of a Trump victory have grown since May, when 30 per cent said Trump, 26 per cent Biden and the rest either didn’t know or said someone else would win.
Britons appear concerned about the prospect of a Trump return.
A majority think it would have a negative impact on the UK/US relationship and they think a Harris win is more in Britain’s interest by a more than 2 to 1 margin.
Security concerns may play a role here.
For example, our polling has shown consistent public support for Ukraine and NATO but Trump’s approach to both if he wins can sometimes be unclear.
Or perhaps it is just that a majority of Britons do not like Donald Trump the person.
Of course, public opinion in Britain will have no meaningful impact on the outcome of this election.
Expect the British public and Keir Starmer’s new Labour government to pay close attention anyway. Depending on who wins, the implications for politics here could be significant.
Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos in the UK
