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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Business
Jonathan Prynn

Britain's faltering economy flatlined in the third quarter

Britain's economy flatlined in the third quarter of the year meaning that it will miss falling into recession in 2023.

Latest official figures from the Office for National Statistics show output was flat between July and September.

Recession is defined by economists as two consecutive quarters of negative growth so today’s figures means that even if GDP slumps in the fourth quarter the criterion cannot be met this year at least.

However growth has been sluggish all year as the cost of living crisis and higher interest rates have hit consumer confidence and made it more expensive for businesses to invest.

Today’s data showed the economy grew by 0.2% in September. That followed a fall of 0.6% in July, when sodden weather hit the high street, and modest growth of 0.1% in August.

Over the quarter as a whole the all important services sector fell 0.1%, the production sector, which includes manufacturing was flat and constriction was up 0.1%

The country last saw a recession during the pandemic when there was a 10.4% fall in output triggered by the first Covid lockdown.

Output bounced by 8.7% in 2021 but dropped back to 4.3% last year after the energy price spike that followed the invasion of Ukraine smothered the recovery from the pandemic.

The Bank of England last week indicated there was a 50-50 chance of a recession by the middle of next year.

Interest rates are expected to stay at the current 15 year high of 5.25% until at least next summer.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:"High inflation is the single biggest barrier to economic growth. The best way to sustainably grow our economy right now is stick to our plan and knock inflation on the head. The Autumn Statement will focus on how we get the economy growing healthily again by unlocking investment, getting people back into work and reforming our public services so we can deliver the growth our country needs."

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