Just when we thought we could pack away the winter coats, the Met Office has warned that Britain might be in for a late cold snap this March – and it’s all thanks to a phenomenon that often brings snow.
Meteorologists are predicting a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event could hit in the next couple of weeks, potentially throwing a wrench in our hopes for warmer spring weather. If this plays out, we could see a significant weakening of the polar vortex – which usually doesn’t get much attention unless it’s about to make things miserable.
For those who aren’t weather buffs, the polar vortex is a mass of cold air swirling around the Earth’s poles. When it weakens, it can push Arctic air southwards, often bringing snow, blizzards, and a sharp drop in temperatures.
According to The Guardian’s ‘Weather Tracker,’ the upcoming stratospheric event looks stronger than the last one, and it’s likely to disrupt the jet stream. That means cold air from the polar regions could push south, potentially leading to significant snowfall in some areas.
The Met Office has confirmed: “The stratosphere polar vortex is now weakening rapidly.”
They went on to explain: “Over the last few days, the forecasts have become very confident, and we are almost certain there will be a sudden stratospheric warming in mid-March. This is when the mid-stratospheric wind is predicted to reverse from westerly to easterly.”
If this sounds familiar, it’s because a similar event back in February caused prolonged freezing conditions and heavy snowfall, especially in Scotland. It was even worse across the pond in the US and Canada, where the extreme cold led to major disruptions, as reported by the Scottish Daily Express.
And this next cold spell? It could be even stronger. Severe Weather Europe has described it as “the final collapse of the polar vortex for this season.”
Bloomberg also weighed in, reporting that Europe could face a cold snap this month due to an unusual Arctic weather shift, which could increase heating demand right as spring is supposed to be starting. They pointed out that while conditions aren’t expected to be as extreme as the infamous ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018, a cold start to spring could put a strain on gas supplies, which are already lower than usual.
Meteorologist Andrew Pedrini from Atmospheric G2 noted: “The stratosphere continues to be a big topic of conversation as the winter ends.”
Meanwhile, GB News has reported that, according to a Met Office spokesperson, around 70% of sudden stratospheric warming events result in cold conditions with easterly winds across northern Europe and the UK.
The Met Office website explains that while sudden stratospheric warming sounds like a good thing, it actually leads to cold conditions down here on the ground. The warming occurs high in the stratosphere (between 10km and 50km above Earth), but a few weeks later, it disrupts the jet stream, which in turn affects our weather.
The bottom line? This doesn’t happen every year, and even when it does, it doesn’t always lead to freezing conditions. But with meteorologists sounding the alarm, it might be wise to keep the winter woollies handy – just in case.
