Although it proved frustrating to have been so distant from it, to some extent the League One promotion picture eventually played into Bristol Rovers’ hands with the departures of Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday of benefit to the rest of the league.
With those two heavyweights now part of the Championship there are two less rivals in the third tier who can distort the financial expectations of what constitutes a good wage at that level. With Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Northampton and Carlisle United also earning promotion from League Two, none of that quartet possesses a level of financial power above the teams already present.
Joey Barton forecast as much towards the end of last season that League One in 2023/24 should, theoretically, be weaker and to add to that theory, of the three dropping down from the Championship, Wigan are in a state of chaos and start the campaign on -8 points while uncertainty remains around Reading. Only Blackpool can be regarded, at this stage, as a stable force.
As a result, League One looks pretty open for next season and based on early bookmakers’ odds, outside of Derby County being considered strong favourites to win the league or, at the very least, secure a top-six finish, the rest of the field appears more levelled out.
Rovers have been priced at 33/1 to win the division (exactly the same price they were this time last year) and 7/2 to finish in the play-off places - 11th overall among their rivals.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and the start of the season in August, let alone between that month and May, 2024, with Rovers targeting double figures in terms of signing and the future of Aaron Collins having a bearing on their prospects.
So, to a certain extent, they can be discounted but it does also act as a reference point for what could transpire over the next 12 months and, also, how expectations could change for the better or worse over the transfer window…
League One promotion odds 2023/24
Outright winner
- Derby County - 5/1
- Bolton Wanderers - 7/1
- Barnsley - 8/1
- Peterborough United - 9/1
- Reading - 10/1
- Portsmouth - 11/1
- Blackpool - 16/1
- Charlton Athletic - 16/1
- Oxford United - 20/1
- Wycombe Wanderers - 25/1
- Bristol Rovers - 33/1
- Exeter City - 33/1
- Leyton Orient - 40/1
- Lincoln City - 40/1
- Port Vale - 40/1
- Wigan Athletic - 40/1
- Burton Albion - 50/1
- Carlisle United - 50/1
- Fleetwood - 50/1
- Northampton Town - 50/1
- Shrewsbury Town - 50/1
- Stevenage - 50/1
- Cambridge United - 66/1
- Cheltenham - 80/1
Top-six finish
- Derby - 4/5
- Bolton - 1/1
- Barnsley - 11/10
- Peterborough - 6/5
- Reading - 5/4
- Portsmouth - 11/8
- Blackpool - 15/8
- Charlton - 15/8
- Oxford - 5/2
- Wycombe - 11/4
- Bristol Rovers - 7/2
- Exeter - 7/2
- Leyton Orient - 9/2
- Lincoln - 9/2
- Port Vale - 9/2
- Wigan - 9/2
- Burton - 11/2
- Carlisle - 11/2
- Fleetwood - 11/2
- Northampton - 11/2
- Shrewsbury - 11/2
- Stevenage - 11/2
- Cambridge - 13/2
- Cheltenham - 8/1
odds via SkyBet and correct at time of publications
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