Headteachers have said they are worried about potential closures of more primary schools in Bristol due to falling birth rates. One primary school is already closing this summer while others across the city are struggling with fewer pupils and shrinking budgets.
St Barnabas Primary School in Montpelier will close this summer despite protests from parents. Bristol City Council bosses approved the closure in February earlier this year after pupil numbers at the 150-year-old school began to fall dramatically, as did its income. In 2021, St George CE Primary School near Brandon Hill closed down as did St Pius X Primary School in Withywood.
A falling birth rate in Bristol since 2012 has left many primary schools taking on fewer pupils each year — and school budgets are linked to how many pupils they teach. Concerns about the wider effects of the issue were raised during a schools forum meeting on Tuesday, May 23.
Read more: Baby boom bulge leaves high schools too full and primary schools too empty
Jo Kingston, headteacher of Holy Cross Catholic Primary School in Bedminster, said: “I’m the head of a single-form entry school. From talking to other colleagues in the same situation, we’re seriously worried about whether there will be more single-form entry schools closing.
“Our budgets are stretched to the absolute limit, and without the capacity around us of larger schools, we do really feel the pressure of having to merge classes, which then becomes a less attractive option for parents. It means that the falling roll causes more and more pressure on headteachers.
“It’s been a number of years now that we’ve been having this conversation about scaling down. Now we’re in this position where the birth rate has fallen, and for the second year in a row we’ve got very low numbers. And it’s going to be the same again next year.”
The birth rate in Britain began to rise in 2003, hitting a peak in 2012 before falling again. This means many primary schools in Bristol had to expand a few years ago to cater for the extra children, but are now struggling with falling pupil numbers. Secondary schools however are facing increased pressure on places, as the number of children going into Year 7 is still rising.
If other primary schools in Bristol have to close — which council bosses say only happens as a last resort — one lesson should be to clear up who is responsible for the closure process, according to Melanie Bunce, school business manager at St Barnabas. She said a lot of the tasks to close the school fell on herself and the headteacher.
She said: “It has been and it will be a really difficult time for the pupils, families and staff — some of whom have never worked anywhere else and many of whom have been there for a very long time. The families have been supported in finding new school places for their children, that’s worked very well. We’ve also had HR meetings in the school for the staff.
“As a learning point for the future, there does need to be a clear process for any kind of closure. There needs to be clear indicators of what’s the responsibility of the school and what’s the responsibility of the council. From a personal point of view, myself and the head are finding that a lot of the responsibility is still falling on our shoulders.”
Council experts do not expect the birth rate to increase in the future, and they also don’t expect the thousands of new homes under construction in Bristol to have a huge effect on demand for primary school places. This is partly due to the small size of much of the housing being built in the city — although their projections were questioned by some headteachers.
'It all could change'
Simon Holmes, headteacher of St Philip’s Marsh Nursery School, said: “I know you say there’s no indication that the birth rate will rise in the foreseeable future but the birth rate is different in different parts of the city. And not to be facetious, but that could all change in nine months.
“I remember going back to 2012/13 when we had a huge number of children going through nursery, and that wasn’t really flagged up. We didn’t know in advance that this was happening to us. All I can say at the moment is that we’re full for the first time ever for September, and that’s never happened before.
“There’s more children. I’ve seen loads of people coming through with babies. Why is the birth rate different in different parts of the city? It’s definitely higher in some areas than others.”
Despite some variations in different parts of Bristol, the general trend is a falling birth rate. And while new housing developments might not have a huge impact on primary school places, there is extra pressure on nurseries and early years provision.
Ian Bell, place planning manager at the council, said: “The birth rates do vary across the city. But overall what we find is the general trends are very similar across the city. The general trends have been declining and there isn’t too much variation on that actually.
“The other thing we’re looking at is housing, because we know we’ve got a lot of new housing planned for the city and currently being built in some areas. The numbers generated from new housing aren’t as huge as some people sometimes think.
“A lot of these tend to be early years places that are needed, because a lot of our new housing is small — so as families grow and the children get older, they will tend to move out to other areas. But certainly new housing does generate some more demand for early years places.”
