Earlier in the season, Nigel Pearson outlined some of his guiding principles in terms of selection and how he deals with players; in very simple terms, if a player is selected and plays well, he keeps his place. If he does not, he’s dropped.
This is all terribly obvious but it’s important at the same time in the context of the modern game because with squad rotation and manager’s employing, in general, greater tactical acumen in their preparation, players can be taken out of the starting XI for reasons beyond their previous performance.
Not for Pearson. He said he has to be “honest and fair” with his players with the theory that they would then be honest with him in terms of their own performance.
It also helps create a settled atmosphere in the dressing room because individuals know where they stand and are rewarded for their hard work and, in effect, punished if their output is considered substandard. There’s no favouritism, everything is earned.
Except, the identity of the 11 players on the teamsheet today at 2pm may well run contrary to this approach for possibly the first time this season - although the volume of defeats and poor performances do cloud the memory somewhat.
The City manager doesn’t have a lot of options or room to manoeuvre from the individuals who lined up for the 2-0 defeat at Barnsley, a display that can rank among the very worst this campaign, as the below will reveal. Here’s how we think City will line up at Ashton Gate this afternoon…
Goalkeeper and defence
Max O’Leary missed the trips to Blackburn and Barnsley with Harvey Wiles-Richards named on the bench and Pearson revealed on Thursday it’s due to the goalkeeper contracting Covid-19. However, the 25-year-old was back in training at the end of the week and could well take his place in the squad, providing he returns a negative test.
If not, and if Pearson feels he’s not physically ready after time out of the first-team set-up, then Wiles-Richards will remain as understudy to Dan Bentley, who’s been City’s best player since he returned to the side six games ago.
City’s ability to drop a defensive clanger doesn’t lie with their captain, although he’s man enough to take responsibility for each goal that flies into his net, but with the collection of players in front of him. And herein lies the problem for Pearson.
Nathan Baker won’t be back before the end of the season, Tomas Kalas is being given time to rest a leg injury due to an accumulation of so much football and George Tanner isn’t quite ready to be thrown back into the first-team environment after 10 weeks out.
So, how exactly does Pearson alter the defence that conceded two soft goals at Oakwell? The only feasible change he can make is to reintroduce Zak Vyner, possibly for Robbie Cundy, who lost his man in Yorkshire for the first Tykes goal and was then blocked off in the build-up to the second. Defensive naivety from an inexperienced centre-back but one he’ll only learn from with more games.
Vyner, also, hasn’t played a single minute since his performance at Swansea City and although he’s an option, it seems unlikely to start him in this game unless - and this is a possibility - Cundy’s lack of minutes over the last nine months means he can’t start three games in a week.
Now, Cam Pring could theoretically come into the back three but that would likely be at the expense of Cundy and would then leave three left-footers at the back which just looks a little imbalanced.
This is working off the assumption, of course, that Timm Klose and Rob Atkinson are definites to start but, in truth, the lack of viable alternatives almost makes the decision up for the manager.
In mitigation, the argument could be made that City have actually defended okay in open play and with that three securing a clean sheet at Blackburn last Saturday, the goals conceded to Barnsley aren’t a true reflection of their capabilities. If the set-pieces can be addressed - which requires action beyond just the three centre-backs, so isn’t solely on them - then the Robins will be okay.
Maybe Pearson will throw a wild card and introduce Duncan Idehen, who travelled with the squad to Swansea and has been putting in some consistent performances for the Under-23s. But to return to his guiding principles, dropping a teenager into a struggling defence against one of the division’s strongest and most accomplished teams could well be counter-productive to his development.
Midfield
Alex Scott’s rolled ankle sustained at Oakwell isn’t serious, which is a big bonus to him and the rest of the team. When Pearson references how sometimes they look to the young players for a performance, and to bring a sense of consistency, he’s pretty much naming Scott, with respect to Antoine Semenyo who’s probably a close second.
The England Under-19 international has been on a level for so much of the season it’s bonkers to consider that this time last year he was signing his first professional contract.
The only real debate with Scott is whether he lines up in centre midfield alongside Matty James and Han-Noah Massengo, or he shifts across to right wing-back to move Andi Weimann back into a central role; it is possible, as the Austrian was played there in two away games, to try and pack the midfield, and Pearson does like to be a bit more front-foot and expansive at home.
Then again, he may feel that West Brom’s strength in that area - Jake Livermore remains a considerable presence - could require a third orthodox midfielder to compete.
That brings us onto perhaps the only real surprise candidate to come into the team at this stage and that’s Josh Owers. The 19-year-old’s performances for the Under-23s have been very impressive and he captained the side against Colchester on Tuesday, a few hours before the senior side kicked off. He has travelled to several away games now as part of the matchday group and was given a shirt in the dressing room last Saturday.
He would bring precisely the sort of tenacity and energy Pearson would like plus it was interesting to read Steve Bruce’s comments in midweek about Baggies youngster Taylor Gardner-Hickman, whereby he said introducing an academy player can give everybody a lift, including the crowd. The situation with City does lend itself towards that state of mind.
However, to return to the discussion around Idehen, it would be a surprise to give Owers his debut in this sort of a game and the most realistic decision looks to be the teenager taking Williams’ spot in the squad and being the alternative on the bench, especially with Covid likely to stop Ayman Benarous from being available.
We should also throw Dylan Kadji’s name into the mix as well because it’s surely only a matter of time before he’s part of this conversation, especially with the end of the season drawing near. For 50-60 minutes on Tuesday for the U23s, the midfielder was the best player on the park before he started to tire a bit.
With the Scott/Weimann debate dominating the right side, it’s then between Dasilva and Pring on the left and the former’s performance of late means he’s almost certainly set to start.
Attack
Antoine Semenyo has been passed fit to play after a spot of cramp towards the defeat at Oakwell and the 22-year-old should start before he jets off to Africa to be involved in the Ghana squad ahead of their World Cup qualifying play-off against Nigeria.
There is an argument for potentially giving Semenyo a breather and trying Nahki Wells from the start as the Bermudian has looked busy in his seemingly eternally-cast role as second-half substitute. At some stage he has to be trusted with a start.
But such is the impact of Semenyo, and he played well in patches at Barnsley, it would be a surprise for the forward to drop out.
And that almost certainly means Wells will be on the bench again because, as we now know, Chris Martin is considered City’s most reliable defender and with the Robins’ set-piece struggles, West Brom’s physical power in attack and propensity for slinging the ball into the mixer, Wells doesn’t provide sufficient counter-measures.
Sam Bell and Tommy Conway will also likely be on the bench, but what this all leaves us with, to return to the start of this story, is the curious scenario of the manager picking an unchanged team after a fairly rotten performance. Strange times, indeed, if it proves to be true.
Bristol City (3-5-2): Dan Bentley; Robbie Cundy, Rob Atkinson, Timm Klose; Andi Weimann, Alex Scott, Matty James, Han-Noah Massengo, Jay Dasilva; Chris Martin, Antoine Semenyo
SIGN UP: For our daily Robins newsletter, bringing you the latest from Ashton Gate
