Nigel Pearson is rarely one for offering too many hints on what his starting XI will look like but the manager did produce the wryest of smiles when he declared his team against Middlesbrough could be "interesting".
"Selection might be an interesting one this weekend but I shan’t be divulging it but it’ll be an interesting decision making process this weekend," he said on Thursday.
That was in response to a question about Boro's strengths, which presumably then will come into his thinking. As will the need to tighten up at the back because City need to break this cycle of having to score two goals for a draw and three for a win.
Yes, it makes for entertaining football but it really is something of a false economy and is the reason why they remain eternally in that lower mid-table region.
Here is how we think the Robins will line up at Ashton Gate as they bid for a fourth straight win on home soil against one of the Championship's form side...
Goalkeeper and defence
We’re confident in stating Dan Bentley will make his first Bristol City start since December 18, well, because Pearson told us so due to Max O’Leary’s dead leg but also the feeling that it’s probably time for the captain to return.
It’s not as if Bentley was playing particularly poorly when he was taken out of the side on December 30 and O’Leary’s introduction undeniably had an impact in how the Robins played with the ball, but perhaps sacrificed a bit of security at the back, particularly from crosses.
Pearson said on Thursday, “Dan knows what to do” which was a reassuring and calming declaration of his experience and leadership but also a message, you’d imagine, for the 28-year-old to be more dominant of his box than the man he’s replacing.
As to who and what starts in front of him, that is the fundamental question for Pearson. Firstly, does he stick with a back three or move to a back four for the first time since the first half against Millwall on January 2.
All those goals conceded since that date - 24 in 10 games in all competitions - couple with his relatively limited options in terms of personnel, with Nathan Baker, Rob Atkinson, George Tanner and probably Ryley Towler out, means it’s the most obvious change he can make to try and address the defence, outside of the goalkeeper, of course.
Pearson noted that it doesn’t matter what the system is, if players don’t have a hunger or desire to keep the ball out of the back of the net, it’s all rather redundant.
That is completely true but there was another hint by the manager on Thursday in which he noted Middlesbrough’s propensity to attack down the right-hand side. In that light, having a left wing-back high up the pitch, could leave too much space in behind.
All those factors then lead us to forecast a flat four, which then leads to the identity of the men starting.
No Tanner and Danny Simpson seemingly out of the first-team picture leaves Zak Vyner, Jay Dasilva and Tomas Kalas as his right-back options, and none are really specialists in the position.
The former were poor at Swansea last Sunday and it’s a stretch to see both, if even one, of them starting today. Pearson does want players to “play through bad spells” but this just seems a need to make a suitable reaction and that’s by dropping Vyner and Dasilva.
Kalas therefore will shunt across, as he has done previously under Lee Johnson, freeing up a centre-back spot alongside Timm Klose which, presumably, means a full Championship debut for Robbie Cundy or a first ever appearance for Duncan Idehen.
You’d surely lean to the former, given he has played some minutes at this level so it wouldn’t be as much of a culture shock for the teenager who will be given a little more time.
On the left, Dasilva could come into the equation but with Pring the better defensive player, he’s the most obvious starter.
Midfield
Based on the assumption of four at the back, that opens up options in midfield to either play a four, have two holders in a 4-2-3-1 or maybe a chance for Pearson to give his favoured 4-3-3 a trial run.
The manager noted at the start of the season that was the system he ideally sees City lining up in, once he has the right players at his disposal but his reticence has previously been about his midfield complement.
There are two points to this. Firstly, in a very obvious sense, Alex Scott, Han-Noah Massengo and Joe Williams form a very nice trio who offer both attacking flair, defensive smarts and mobility. Okay, it would be nice to have Matty James in there for some extra positional security and as an overall orchestrator but the 30-year-old won’t be back until next month.
Providing Williams is declared fit to start, and he has now had six days to rest sufficiently after his 31 minutes in south Wales, then that looks a real possibility. And, you have to say, quite an exciting one.
There is no obvious defensive midfielder but Williams and Massengo can get up and down with tremendous energy, they both very much relish a tackle and the overall physicality and then Scott can operate in a slightly more advanced role to feed the front three.
The other aspect to this is that Pearson doesn’t really have that many wide midfielders. Andi Weimann could play on the right of a four, but that potentially takes away a bit of his presence in the final third - as he’s said himself - so too could Dasilva, on either flank, but that leaves a hole then on the other side due to Callum O’Dowda’s injury.
Ayman Benarous is the other option and maybe the teenager could be the wildcard pick today, perhaps on the left with Scott then down the right. It probably looks the next best option, but we’re settling on a three, especially because a Benarous-Pring axis on the City left does look a tad vulnerable.
Attack
Pearson noted the quality and efficiency of his attack in midweek and with good reason. The Three Musketeers of Weimann, Chris Martin and Antoine Semenyo have struck up a strong and productive relationship and there’s no reason to break them up.
It’s something the manager revealed he has no intention of sacrificing strengths in other areas of the field to compensate for the defensive issues.
"I’m not going to mess with areas of the team which are functioning well. No chance. I’m not weakening where we’ve been very strong just to try and fill gaps in other areas of the pitch, no, I’m not doing it," Pearson said.
"We’ve scored four less goals than the whole total of last year Jon [Lansdown] told me. We are certainly a more potent force but unfortunately we are not tight enough and haven’t been so that’s our Achilles heel I’m afraid."
In that context, the only context really is how they’ll line up. Because if it’s a 4-3-3 then that would imply Weimann slightly to the right and Semenyo on the left with Martin through the middle.
It has a nice ring to it and all three can certainly play those roles but does potentially hamper the wide forwards’ ability to attack the box; Weimann spoke on Thursday about the better shooting angles he’s getting when he plays through the middle.
So they could then be a bit more narrow with Weimann potentially central in a slightly more withdrawn position, able to help the midfield but also break forward, with Martin and Semenyo as a pair.
In reality, it’ll probably be a hybrid of the two, with Weimann tactically smart enough to switch between roles and Semenyo also a dangerous prospect if he’s roaming all over the field; the big question will be how they fare out of possession. Also, if it is narrow, does that leave the full-backs a little exposed? That’s when the midfield will have to work that little bit harder to cover the space.
This, of course, once again leaves Nahki Wells out but unfortunately the 31-year-old will just have to remain patient on the bench, something he has been gracious enough to accept, which is testament to his professionalism, but it must also be frustrating for the Bermudian.
Bristol City (4-3-1-2): Dan Bentley; Tomas Kalas, Robbie Cundy, Timm Klose, Cam Pring; Alex Scott, Joe Williams, Han-Noah Massengo; Andi Weimann; Antoine Semenyo, Chris Martin
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