Bristol City have some significant records to overcome tonight at Kenilworth Road. It’s just over 21 years since the Robins last enjoyed victory at the ground as Scott Murray, Lee Peacock and Micky Bell found the target in a 3-0 win.
That is a surprising statistic, in itself, but perhaps more symbolic of City’s struggles over the last 12 months is that you have to go back to February 27, 2021 since they last won consecutive games of football.
In 42 matches since, they have never followed a win with another victory and if you want tangible evidence of why Nigel Pearson spends so much time bemoaning a lack of consistency, well, there it is.
Three points therefore is important in both a historic and present sense, as a second positive result inside a week will also lift City above Luton in the table and into the sanctity of a proper mid-table position.
Saturday’s win over Cardiff City has created a reasonable buffer on the bottom three and while this is a transitional campaign, the expectation is this team should, in theory, continue to improve as they become more cohesive and can start to look up the table.
Here is how we think the Robins will line up against Luton Town.
Goalkeeper and defence
Max O’Leary is still to keep a clean sheet since taking Dan Bentley’s place between the posts, and 12 goals conceded from his four appearances isn’t a particularly pleasing advert for his goalkeeping but it’s not really been his fault.
And we should, of course, focus on what he brings in the position compared to his club captain, with a number of examples on show against Cardiff.
Any cross or loose ball collected inside the area and O’Leary immediately scampers to the edge of his box looking to set City on their way in transition.
Counter-attacks proved a vital part of how they ripped Cardiff apart on the weekend, utilising the pace and drive of Cam Pring, Callum O’Dowda, Andi Weimann and Antoine Semenyo and the same tactic is likely to be deployed again tonight.
In front of him, Rob Atkinson’s back injury leaves Pearson’s options limited and the defence that starts the game is likely to be the one that finished against the Bluebirds: Tomas Kalas, Zak Vyner and Cam Pring.
The only question mark will perhaps be who plays in the centre as Vyner has tended to occupy that slot and, as the spare man and best long passer it gets him on the ball, but he’s also not as good as Kalas in the air.
That being said, Luton’s two starting forwards Cameron Jerome and Elijah Adebayo tend to play on the turn, looking to break forward on the shoulder, rather than trying to dominate 1v1 aerial duels all the time so perhaps the identity of that central man isn’t as important as previous fixtures.
Midfield
A similar theory to the defence is likely to apply in this area of the pitch with Matty James almost certainly out and Andy King likely to follow suit.
James was seen walking in a protective boot on Saturday and it will be some recovery if the 30-year-old is able to take to the field following his foot injury which dates back to the end of October.
Pearson was unable to give an immediate assessment of King’s hamstring injury sustained against Cardiff but given the veteran’s problems already this season in that area - he missed two months after undergoing surgery - City will have to, at the very least, err on the side of caution.
That does create an opening for Joe Williams, who was on the bench on Saturday after his own two-month absence but it would be an ambitious and potentially risky call to bring the 25-year-old back as a starter without any competitive minutes since November 24.
Williams’ qualities would help mitigate the losses of King and James but City have to break this injury cycle with the midfielder and what’s more likely is he is given gametime in the second half, depending on the circumstances.
Which leaves the very two who performed so well against Cardiff, once King departed: Han-Noah Massengo and Alex Scott.
Neither are what you’d call traditional defensive midfielders but if Pearson is keen to be brave and clever in possession, and try and out-fox Luton, he has two young technicians to call upon.
It does potentially leave the defence exposed, as they’re not as positionally strong as the aforementioned more experienced trio but Pearson is confident that Scott’s selflessness and football IQ should enable him to play in a more withdrawn role and do what’s best for the team.
It then goes without saying that Andi Weimann will play just ahead of them in his sort of No10/withdrawn forward hybrid position. That is, as we’ll mention in a moment, as much to do with the performances of the two likely strikers.
As for the wing-backs, with Pring likely to play as a wide centre-back, Callum O’Dowda should stay on the left flank and although Jay Dasilva would normally be a shout for that area, he is needed on the right.
As Vyner is tucked inside unless it’s time for a rare sighting of Danny Simpson, with no George Tanner for around another four weeks, Dasilva is the only real option Pearson has down that side of the pitch.
Attack
As mentioned, Weimann’s position as top scorer would, in a traditional sense, mean the Austrian start as a forward but so destructive were Chris Martin and Antoine Semenyo against Cardiff, unless there is any kind of injury concern, they simply have to be paired again.
Semenyo gave a slightly cumbersome Cardiff backline a deeply uncomfortable afternoon with his direct running and the fact he’s just so hard to shake off the ball. While Martin’s competitiveness in the air and smart runs offered a different kind of threat.
Semenyo just makes City look so much more fluid going forward and takes away the stale predictability that plagued them throughout the autumn into winter period.
Bristol City (3-4-1-2): Max O’Leary; Zak Vyner, Tomas Kalas, Cam Pring; Jay Dasilva, Alex Scott, Han-Noah Massengo, Callum O’Dowda; Andi Weimann; Chris Martin, Antoine Semenyo
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