In the end there was a consensus: having previously baulked at Jon Lansdown's assertion that Bristol City were "underachieving" and should be higher in the table, Nigel Pearson's post-season debrief accepted as much.
The Robins may have finished with a mild flourish to push themselves to a more acceptable points tally of 55 but 17th was not what was expected. CEO Richard Gould had previously indicated such was the club's wage bill that top-half was the minimum requirement.
Pearson conceded his team are slightly behind the curve in terms of where he wanted them to be after 18 months in charge and that what has taken place over the last nine months won't be acceptable in 2022/23, the word "play-offs" has also been touched upon.
The Championship is a bonkers league in the sense it doesn't always take, at least on the face of it, a lot to go from a lower mid-table side to a promotion contender - see Huddersfield Town - but then that's also doing the work of Carlos Corberan a slight disservice; it doesn't just happen.
There is a lot now on the City manager in the sense there's only so much that can be blamed - and, to his credit, he's not actually done this that much - on the sins of the past. City simply have to be notably better next season and this summer will surely shape a large part of that or, at the very least, put the team in the best possible position to achieve whatever predetermined aims they have.
City have made early inroads with the arrival of Mark Sykes on a free transfer and they're clearly targeting a right wing-back and there's every chance that, if possible, they could sign both Kane Wilson and Arsenal's Ryan Alebiosu, plus there will be other names on their shortlist.
But what about elsewhere on the field? Based on players who are definitely under contract for next season, and those who have been involved with the first-team over the last 12 months (with apologies to Dylan Kadji and Ryley Towler) we've produced the depth chart below showing Pearson's options across the pitch.
Attention is needed on the defence
Admittedly we’re stating the obvious here given City’s diabolical defensive record, and not just last season (1.67 goals per game conceded and 14.2 shots against, 22nd in the Championship) but also in the previous campaign (1.47 and 14.5, 24th in the league).
The volume of goals conceded and the manner in which they have flown past Dan Bentley and Max O’Leary has really irritated Pearson who, for all his protestations over this reference point, prided himself as a player on being an absolute wall at the back and giving absolutely everything to prevent the team from scoring. If the Robins are to become a team that can “win ugly” as he so desires, dragging victories out from certain draws and scrapping points from possible defeats, they have to tighten up at the back.
The sample size mentioned above means that while some of that can be coached, 62 games under Pearson with this group of defenders means that the most likely force for change is with personnel in the transfer market.
The manager has said he wants at least one centre-back, and a “dominant” one at that. With the above chart as a reference point, however, he could well require two, maybe even three, depending on how the transfer window plays out.
First and foremost, what happens if Robbie Cundy and Timm Klose don’t sign? That would be a worst-case scenario but immediately reduces his options to just Tomas Kalas and Rob Atkinson as frontline centre-backs and then possibly rookie Duncan Idehen as third-choice, given how far Zak Vyner’s fallen down the hierarchy.
Taking Vyner into consideration, there’s every reason that he and Taylor Moore - with both having one year left on their contracts - could be moved on, as they don’t seem to have much of a future under Pearson. But if Cundy and Klose don’t return, is that immediately possible?
The conversation around Kalas is also worth exploring given he’s entering the final 12 months of his deal and is the highest-earning player at the club. Pearson has spoken about the need for wage equality and this represents the last opportunity to extract any kind of fee for the Czech international (if that’s even possible as he approaches 30).
But can they afford to think about moving Kalas on if we consider the likelihood of Taylor and maybe Vyner being sold, the uncertainty around Klose and Cundy’s contract decisions and then exactly what sort of health Nathan Baker is in for next season?
City have, as it stands, six centre-backs for next season: Atkinson, Baker, Kalas, Vyner, Moore and Idehen. A best-case scenario, based on Pearson’s preferences, would probably be for that to become: Atkinson, Cundy, Klose, Idehen, a fit-again Baker plus one other. But there are so many permutations of what could play out, it’s almost impossible to predict how it’ll look by September 1.
The right blend in midfield
It’s very much linked to the above as City don’t have a suitable screen in front of the back three/four to reduce pressure on the defence. They have the tactical discipline and organisation of Matty James and Andy King plus the energy of Joe Williams and Han-Noah Massengo, while Josh Owers and Dylan Kadji (who’s not included above) are exciting prospects coming through, but there is no bona fide midfield anchor who can dominate both sides of the ball, supplying the midfield but also improving security in front of the backline.
It will unquestionably be a transfer priority this summer with Reading’s Andy Rinomhota among the names being considered but the 25-year-old appears more in the Williams/Massengo mould in terms of being more up and down, than a genuine holding player.
City’s central midfield is an interesting area because there is plenty of talent but also a lot of unanswered questions: will Massengo still be here beyond the end of August? As it stands, probably not but that could change; can Williams stay fit for 30+ games? City are unquestionably a better team with him in the side and Pearson indicated the 25-year-old was available for 70 per cent of their matches last season but the Scouser was held back from a consistent run in the side by the regularity of injuries he sustained.
The same can also be asked of James, who was an automatic starter when fit but missed 13 Championship matches with a foot injury. At 30, how likely is it that injury will strike again? We also don’t know how much Andy King’s role next season will be playing and how much coaching, nor if he even still will be here as the contract remains unsigned.
There’s also the returning Tyreeq Bakinson. It would be some comeback story if he was to force his way back into Pearson’s thinking following his loan exile to Ipswich Town, but surely the hope would be to sell the 23-year-old. At the risk of stating the obvious, that requires a club to actually bid for him, which even considering Ipswich’s interest isn’t a foregone conclusion.
It’s all very well and good saying, “get rid of him” but you need a club at the end of that equation to make it work. Is there a possibility where Bakinson can’t be sold, and Pearson has to use him for next season given diminishing resources? It’s certainly a scenario that could play out, as much as we may not want to consider it.
In the more advanced positions, Ayman Benarous’ ACL unfortunately keeps the teenager out until October/November, Kasey Palmer doesn’t appear to have much of a future while we live in hope that no Premier League club tests the water with a bid for Alex Scott, but it’s not improbable that something appealing lands on Richard Gould’s desk at some stage over the next three months.
A busy summer awaits
For the purposes of debate, from the above graphic, we’ve adapted it to now include only players under contract for next season, who appear part of Pearson’s plans and are likely to not be sold. So that removes Palmer, Bakinson, Vyner, Moore, Massengo and Nahki Wells.
We don’t want to go over the Massengo discussion because it seems slightly open at the moment but the indication is that the Frenchman will be sold in a move that benefits him and also City given the need for some transfer revenue. It may not come to pass. As is the case with any player, you can only be sold if someone wants to buy you for the price that is being requested.
Perhaps, there’s a scenario that evolves whereby either the 20-year-old decides to stay and mulls over his future until January and maybe City make a strong start to the season and convince him his future is best served in the West Country. Or, he simply plays out his final year, where his options in summer 2023 as a free agent could then be far wider. But, working on the balance of probability, right here, right now, it’s reasonable to suggest he will be sold.
Pearson insists he’d like to keep Wells, and from a sporting perspective that seems wise, considering his capabilities. This isn’t FIFA, though, and there are numerous other factors to consider. Firstly, does Wells want to stay and be fourth choice again (before we even consider Semenyo’s future, admittedly)? The expectation is no. At 31, he just wants to play.
Then there’s his status as one of the higher-earners who isn’t, at present, providing return on the field. Can City afford to pay seven figures over the next 12 months for someone who will make 10-15 starts and score 5-7 goals? Once upon a time, perhaps, but not in today’s financial climate.
Unless there is a dramatic change in circumstances regarding Wells’ position in the squad, it’s hard to see an argument why he stays beyond the reasons that prevented him from leaving last summer and in January - namely, there were no suitable takers.
So, with that considered, removing those six players, and with Klose, Cundy and King’s decisions up in the air, all of a sudden that squad looks very, very thin. Factor in City also being at the mercy of Semenyo and Scott's Premier League admirers and Pearson’s in a position where he’s now struggling to scrape a balanced team together.
Yes, we’re delving into worst-case scenarios here but such is the concept of risk and what it ultimately adds up to, is that City will need more than just the five players they signed last summer to produce a competitive Championship squad, let alone one that can move them notably higher up the table.
The academy will be called upon once again and we can expect elevated roles for Tommy Conway, Sam Bell, Owers, Idehen and Towler but numerous signings are very much required. With precious financial resources to do so - unless Semenyo or Scott are sold - it adds up to a mighty challenge for Pearson, Gould and the recruitment team.
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