Schools, airports, public transport and most businesses are beginning to shut down in Brisbane and across south-east Queensland, as authorities advised Tropical Cyclone Alfred will likely arrive later than expected.
Advice to residents is now that Alfred’s track to the coast has slowed, and that it will likely cross the southeast Queensland coast at some point on Friday.
But the Bureau of Meteorology says it’s also possible that Alfred stalls further as it heads towards Moreton Bay, and might not reach the populated coastline until Saturday.
It would still likely hit the coast as a “high end” category two system, but possibly a category three. The centre should cross somewhere between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.
An updated BOM briefing from just after 5am on Thursday says the models - which had largely been consistent in showing Alfred’s track to the coast - had shown “greater variation in the strength of the steering flow”.
“The consensus is now for slower westward motion, and as a result a delayed time of coastal crossing.
“The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during daylight hours on Friday, however the spread of guidance now includes the possibility of crossing being delayed until Saturday.”
Queensland’s school system, the Gold Coast, Ballina and Coffs Harbour airports, council-operated rubbish tips and Brisbane’s bus, train and ferry system have or will close on Wednesday. Brisbane and Sunshine Coast airports remained open on Wednesday.
All major roads and bridges were expected to be closed when winds hit 90km/h. Elective surgery has also been cancelled.
A red alert was issued for vessels, and no boat is permitted on the water in the affected area without permission.
The region could see up to 800mm of rain according to the BoM, with localised flash flooding possible.
Residents were also warned to stay indoors and off the road, particularly during high wind.
The Brisbane lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, said driving was “not recommended over the next two days, and even the next three days”.
“It can be an incredibly dangerous situation. There can be items that have become projectiles, that can crash into you. There can be fallen power lines as a result of fallen trees that can electrocute you.”
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, said there were three major threats anticipated from the storm: a storm surge and erosion, damaging winds and finally flooding rain.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, who travelled to the Queensland capital, said the Australian defence force had been engaged, on request from the state government.
“I’m here working with Premier Crisafulli, absolutely in lockstep. There is no political parties here,” Albanese said on Wednesday. “There are no borders between New South Wales and Queensland, just Australians working together.”
Two firefighting helicopters had been readied for service in a cargo role, he said.
The commonwealth has delivered more than 125,000 sandbags as of Wednesday morning, with tens of thousands more on order.
Sandbag depots were beginning to close, with the City of Moreton Bay shutting down its distributions points at about midday Wednesday. Brisbane City Council’s sandbag depot was set to close at 8pm on Wednesday, after more than 400,000 sandbags were distributed.
Meanwhile, tent cities occupied by homeless people in Brisbane’s inner suburbs were packed down, as their residents took shelter indoors.
Residents of about 35 tents in Musgrave Park were taking refuge at the Emmanuel City Mission and Kurilpa Hall, maintained by Micah Projects.
A small army of volunteers from North West Community Group, the Greens party, supported by workers from the Brisbane City Council, Micah Projects and the Department of Housing helped dismantle and store their possessions.
Crisafulli said the Department of Housing had offered every homeless person in the affected area some form of shelter, but “quite a few” had refused it.
“And that’s why we have to keep going back and redoubling our efforts,” he said.
The northern rivers region of NSW was facing its second flood in three years.
The NSW premier, Chris Minns, said: “We hope for the best but we must prepare for the worst.”
He said if the cyclone hits at high tide, it may drive it up to half a metre higher than a typical high tide.
Crisafulli said 1,000 Ergon Energy crews were on hand ready to restore power after the storm ends.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred was about 325km east of Brisbane, heading west north-west at about 14km/h on Wednesday evening. It was generating winds at its centre of about 95km/h, with wind gusts up to 130km/h.
Read more of Guardian Australia’s Tropical Cyclone Alfred coverage:
