Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday on the main card of UFC 306 at Sphere in Las Vegas. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
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Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 preview
UFC Hall of Famer Daniel Cormier might’ve hit the nail on the head when he said recently that Lopes (25-6 MMA, 4-1 UFC) beating Ortega (16-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) would be “a bit of a changing of the guard” given where both fighters are at in their careers. … Ortega, 33, has struggled to be active since challenging for the featherweight title, going 2-3 in the past six years. He’s coming off a Performance of the Night submission win over Yair Rodriguez this past February. Ortega was slated to fight Lopes in June at UFC 303, but he was forced to pull out after a tough weight cut. … Lopes, 29, has made noise since joining the UFC last year, as he was named MMA Junkie’s Newcomer of the Year for 2023. He’s on a four-fight winning streak, including a decision win over Dan Ige, who took the fight at UFC 303 on just a few hours’ notice following Ortega’s withdrawal.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 expert pick, prediction
These two were initially booked back at UFC 303 until health issues post-weight cut forced Ortega to withdraw, which, in turn, set up a memorable last-minute booking between Lopes and Dan Ige.
Although Ortega and Lopes have much closer to a full camp this time around, it’s still hard to be confident in the health status of either combatant considering the quick nature of this turnaround and the context surrounding this can’t-miss, once-in-a-lifetime event.
For that reason, I almost find myself leaning into things like age and durability given the x-factors that quietly loom large.
Ortega is the more proven product on paper when it comes to everything from his skills to his experience, but Lopes still possesses some stylistic edges (that I further outline in the in-depth breakdown I put out for this fight back in June) that could come in handy for this fight.
Whether Lopes is countering Ortega’s kicks or taxing him with straight shots down the center, I suspect that the Lobo Gym representative will be able to pile on to the existing damage that “T-City” accrued over his career.
I’ll stick with my initial forecast for Lopes to produce a stoppage via strikes in Round 2.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 odds
The oddsmakers and public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Lopes (-188) and Ortega (+146) via FanDuel.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes UFC 306 start time, how to watch
As the featured bout on the main card, Ortega and Lopes are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. locally in Las Vegas). The fight will stream on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 306.
