It is well-documented that there is immense talent within the AFC West, yet last season, several teams from the division underperformed and failed to meet lofty expectations.
The only team that had great success was the Kansas City Chiefs. The Los Angeles Chargers made the playoffs but surrendering a 27-0 lead makes a playoff appearance almost regrettable. Then there are the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, who both thought they could challenge for the division, but both failed to even make the playoffs as a wildcard team.
This season, there are still going to be lofty expectations for these teams and their players, despite their performance a season ago. Let’s take a look at who can break out for each of these teams in the AFC West in order to help them achieve those goals:
Las Vegas Raiders: CB Tyler Hall
This is a name that many people may not recognize, but it is someone that may raise a few eyebrows this upcoming season. Hall went undrafted in 2020, playing nine games for the Falcons before playing four games for the Rams in 2021.
The 25-year-old defensive back is entering his second season with the Raiders after making three starts in seven games last season. In those appearances, Hall collected 20 tackles, four passes defended and added one sack.
Over the last four weeks of the 2022 season is where we saw Hall’s potential breakthrough. In those games, Hall totaled 12 tackles and four passes defended. PFF gave Hall the highest grade among all defensive backs on the Raiders’ roster. Hall graded out at 86.3 in coverage, giving up only nine catches for 43 yards while being targeted 18 times.
Pass breakups were another impressive aspect of Hall’s games in the limited time he saw on the field. Hall forced an incompletion on 22% of the 18 targets against him in the seven games he played in.
It seems that the Raiders may have an answer at slot corner, as Hall lined up against the slot on 167 snaps. Hall also took a handful of snaps lined up in the box, as a free safety and out wide. Las Vegas has its hands full with the talent at the wide receiver position in the division. Hall should play a monumental part in containing those wide receivers from exposing the Raiders’ pass defense.
Denver Broncos: WR Jerry Jeudy
Entering the 2020 NFL draft, Jeudy was one of the most sought-after wideouts in the draft class.
Since going 15th overall to the Broncos, we have not seen the 24-year-old receiver put everything together. While you can say that a lot of his inconsistency has to do with quarterback play, some of this is still on the former Alabama receiver. However, toward the end of last season, we did see glimpses of Jeudy’s potential of being a No. 1 option in the NFL.
In the last five weeks of the season, Jeudy commanded 41 targets, securing 33 of those passes for 458 yards and three touchdowns. Albeit those three touchdowns came in one game against the Chiefs, Jeudy was beginning to establish himself as the top target in this offense going into 2023.
Courtland Sutton did miss two of those contests in that span, but in the same games played as Jeudy, Sutton was out-targeted 24-20 by the Alabama product. Despite Russell Wilson having a tumultuous 2022 season, Jeudy was still capable of accumulating 972 yards in 15 games played. If Jeudy was able to play the full 17-game schedule, he would have easily been a 1,000-yard receiver.
There was some speculation that the Broncos could be looking to trade Jeudy earlier in the offseason. However, that was put to bed when Denver picked up Jeudy’s $12.9 million fifth-year option. That coupled with the arrival of Sean Payton may finally unlock Jeudy’s full potential in this offense.
This team is clearly committed to Jeudy, and now that he is under contract through 2024, there is a greater possibility of the Broncos moving on from Sutton at some point. Sutton will be 28 years old during the 2023 season and none of his 2024 salary is guaranteed. Denver can also save almost $10 million in cap space by moving off of Sutton before June 1 of next year. Jeudy is heading into the 2023 season as the presumed WR1 for the Broncos, as he will be looking to carry over his strong performance from the final weeks in 2022.
Los Angeles Chargers: QB Justin Herbert
This may be a head-scratching shoutout for a breakout candidate, as Herbert has already proved his ceiling as a franchise quaterback. However, with a down year in 2022, there are many people questioning if he is good as he is conveyed.
Although it was a disappointing season, Herbert should not be blamed for how the season played out. For one, this roster was ravished by injuries, including Herbert suffering fractured ribs that he ultimately played through the entire year. The 25-year-old quarterback suffered the injury in Week 2 against the Chiefs, so there is little reason to believe that injury should affect him this season.
Rashawn Slater suffered a ruptured bicep tendon in week three against the Jaguars, leaving Herbert’s blindside vulnerable. Other injuries along the offensive line left Herbert with little time to operate.
Keenan Allen missed seven games and Mike Williams missed four games. In their missed, Ekeler was a primary target in the passing game. The Chargers had zero pass-catchers eclipse 1,000 yards, and Ekeler was fourth on the team in receiving with 722 yards. A recipe not built for success.
After the elongated injury list, coaching was another problem that Herbert dealt with. Brandon Staley’s decision-making in certain situations is one thing, but Joe Lombardi’s offensive scheme is what held Herbert back. Lombardi’s philosophy created a mundane offense that ignored Herbert’s talent and ability in pushing the ball down the field.
Time and time again, the Chargers would line up three receivers wide, having each of them run five-yard routes that did not challenge defenses vertically. In 2022, Herbert averaged an underwhelming 6.8 yards per attempt. Herbert is 6-foot-6, and 236 pounds and Lombardi was asking his quarterback to throw underneath the sticks too often.
Luckily for Herbert, Lombardi was fired earlier this offseason. The Cowboys parted ways with Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore shortly after the season. Los Angeles would quickly scoop Moore for the same position.
Moore will get Herbert to return to his form from a couple of years ago. Moore’s first year as Dallas’ offensive coordinator was in 2019. That year, Dak Prescott threw 1,100 more yards and eight more touchdowns, and his QBR jumped 16.7 points from 2018.
The Oregon product should be able to replicate the same type of improvement. Obviously, Herbert is not going to throw for 1,100 more yards than he did last season. That would put him at 5,800 yards, which is unrealistic. But, the style of the offensive scheme will make the Chargers’ offense explosive, which will raise Herbert’s numbers astronomically.
Not to mention the fact that the Chargers drafted receiver Quentin Johnston 21st overall in this year’s draft. Johnston is 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds. The former TCU wideout will provide Los Angeles with another deep threat and will enter the season as the WR3 behind Allen and Williams — a scary proposition for opposing defenses. If Allen or Williams goes down with an injury, Johnston is a fine option to step up and fill the void for the Chargers.
Calling a shot for Herbert to “break out” does not mean he has not had a season where he posted historical numbers. In this case, the combination of scheme, improved health, and upgrade of weapons will showcase what Herbert can be on a yearly basis. A breakout year for Herbert would put him in the MVP conversation this upcoming season.
Kansas City Chiefs: WR Kadarius Toney
If there was one question about the Chiefs heading into this upcoming season, it would be who will step up and establish themselves as WR1. The first name that should pop up in many people’s minds is Kadarius Toney.
Brett Veach seems to believe that Toney can separate himself from the pack and become a go-to option for Patrick Mahomes.
“Yeah, I mean he’s down there with Pat. He’s one of these guys that were down there (in Texas) throwing. Talent-wise, it’s up there. He’s really good. He can do anything. He’s predominately been a guy that is a slot receiver, returner, runner, gadget guy if you will but I don’t know if there is a limit on his game because he has a vertical game. I think we saw a little in the regular season Jacksonville game that his time in college, I don’t know if they were a team that vertically pushed the ball down the field and his time early on in New York (Giants), I don’t know if they were a team that really vertically pushed the ball down the field.
“I mean, it’s a fair question to say has he ever played with a quarterback that likes to push the ball down the field? Now we got him in here in the middle of the season and so there’s only so much you can do with him. I don’t think he’s limited to a specific role and just like it is with all these players just staying healthy and getting through camp. He’s extremely smart though so it’s not going to be anything (with) grasping ideas or concepts. I mean this kid is really smart and we were surprised with how quickly he picked up. I mean some guys it takes a year or two but listen we condensed it because we were in the middle of the season, there is only so much you can do and get him on board with. He picked up that stuff up really easy. I mean listen, we have a lot of high hopes for him. I mean he was a first-round pick for a reason. There’s a reason why we traded for him and we felt like he was first-round talent and I think if he stays healthy and continues to spend that chemistry with the coaching staff and with Pat, which I think he is doing a great job at, I think the sky is the limit for him.”
The main thing to read from this quote is that Toney’s route tree will expand, and those routes will extend down the field. As Veach said, Toney was utilized as a gadget player, even in Kansas City. Part of that came when Mecole Hardman was out for an extended period of time. In seven games for the Chiefs, Toney caught 14 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns. The majority of those catches came underneath where Toney created yards after the catch.
Listening to what Veach had to say about the 24-year-old receiver reminds me of what Toney did against the Cowboys in 2021. In that game, Toney caught 10 passes for 189 yards, and probably would have gone over 200 yards if he had not gotten ejected. The former first-round pick has shown in a handful of moments that he can become a number-one in a passing attack. He won’t be that with Travis Kelce around, but the Chiefs need a receiver to step up and pick up the slack behind the 33-year-old tight end.
The one question mark surrounding Toney is his health. He has missed multiple games over the last couple of seasons due to nagging hamstring injuries. If he can straighten that out and stay on the field, there is no reason why he can’t be the WR1 on the Chiefs this season.
