Football can be an extremely cruel game. The 49ers were given an unnecessary reminder of that Sunday when quarterback Trey Lance was lost for the season with a fractured ankle in their win over the Seahawks.
After all the excitement around what Lance could become in the 49er offense, San Francisco never really got a proper look at the man they selected last year to be their franchise quarterback beginning in the 2022 season.
Now, they have to swiftly turn the page with Jimmy Garoppolo, with the move to keep him around as the backup suddenly looking very astute.
But how does the injury impact the 49ers’ expectations, Lance’s development, and San Francisco’s long-term plan at the game’s most important position?
Unchanged expectations
The 49ers entered the season with a high floor regardless of which of their top two quarterbacks was under center. Theirs is one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, one blessed with the talent and depth to elevate the team’s level of performance independent of quarterback play.
With Lance at the helm of the offense, the question was whether he could survive the early ups and downs that come with being a starting quarterback for the first time and lift the offense and, in turn, the team to even greater heights.
It will now be a long time before the answer is revealed but, in terms of expectations, little has changed for the Niners. This is still a championship-level roster with the potential to go deep into the playoffs as it has with Garoppolo at quarterback in two of the last three seasons.
On both occasions, the 49ers have hit their ceiling in the most critical moments, giving away fourth-quarter leads in Super Bowl LIV and last season’s NFC Championship Game. The return of Garoppolo may mean few have confidence in the Niners to get over the top but, in an NFC that looks increasingly open, San Francisco can still afford to have plenty of faith in its ability to again threaten to get back to the Super Bowl even after the devastating blow of losing its young quarterback.
The threat to Lance's development
Undoubtedly the biggest impact of this injury is the way in which it will influence Lance’s development as a quarterback.
Having played only one full season of college at the FCS level and just 10 quarters in his rookie year, Lance only added five quarters of football to his limited experience when he desperately needed time on the field to adapt to playing at the highest level.
Though he will have another full year to immerse himself in the Shanahan offense via the film room without the pressures that come with being on the field, when he does return in 2023 he will be under an intense spotlight with the onus on him to develop and perform extremely quickly in his third season while regaining his confidence in his leg after suffering a serious injury.
Lance is still only 22 and may still have a long and successful career ahead of him, but – putting aside the hugely impressive support system he will likely have – his injury puts him in a far from ideal situation in which to make the necessary strides next year.
The 49ers might not have needed Lance on the field for them to win games, but Lance needed this season, and the fact he will now not get that experience could have a huge bearing on his progress as a player and the Niners’ long-term plan at quarterback.
The 49ers' long-term plan
By selecting Lance last year, the 49ers gave themselves the greatest advantage in the sport. A quarterback on a rookie deal. Of course, that is only an advantage if the quarterback pans out, but, theoretically, they were in an excellent position to use the financial flexibility Lance’s contract gives them to stack the deck further around him.
They have not lost that freedom because of Lance’s injury but losing him for the season means that two years of San Francisco having a quarterback on a team-friendly contract will have passed without them experiencing any kind of on-field benefits.
The third year of the deal is the time when there would usually be the first whispers about a prospective extension, but the 49ers are highly unlikely to want to commit to anything with Lance without seeing at least a year of productive performances, increasing the chances of them waiting until the fourth year, or even the season of his fifth-year option before a making a decision.
San Francisco must also now consider how to protect itself against the possibility that Lance returns and is not capable of playing at a high enough level for a team of the 49ers’ caliber. The prognosis for him recovering and getting back to football shape is good, but his play remains a complete unknown.
Barring a return to the Super Bowl, the prospect of Garoppolo coming back for 2023 looks a slim one, given what the 49ers have invested in Lance.
As such, the 49ers will need to find themselves a new insurance policy. Brock Purdy, to his credit, earned a place on the roster as the last pick in the draft, but going into 2023 with the former Iowa State star as the sole alternative to Lance would not be prudent on the 49ers’ part.
There is no shortage of veteran stopgaps and reclamation projects set to hit the open market next offseason, while the 49ers will also need to consider taking a day-two quarterback from what looks to be a deep draft class to give them another possible long-term answer if Lance does not pan out.
Lance’s injury will not shake the belief in the 49ers’ organization that he will be a success but, after the events of Sunday, the Niners are all too aware of the value of having a strong backup plan.
