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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Helen Sullivan

Lula triumphs over far-right incumbent Bolsonaro in stunning comeback – as it happened

Jair Bolsonaro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Brazil Voter proBolsonaro Police
Supporters of Brazil's former president and current candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva react as the current candidate is declared victorious.
Supporters of Brazil's former president and current candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva react as the current candidate is declared victorious. Photograph: Amanda Perobelli/Reuters

We’ll be wrapping up our live coverage of Brazil’s runoff election. I’m Helen Sullivan and thanks for following along.

Before I go, here are two more congratulations from world leaders:

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro offered a “big hug” to Lula, saying in a tweet: “Long live the peoples determined to be free, sovereign and independent! Today in Brazil democracy triumphed.”

Gustavo Petro, who became Colombia’s first leftist president after his election this summer, tweeted simply “Long live Lula.”

He later shared a map showing that the majority of Latin American countries are now led by leftist governments:

Here are some more photos from the night:

Aerial view of Cinelandia District in downtown Rio de Janeiro as supporters of newly elected president of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva celebrate his victory in the runoff against Bolsonaro on 30 October 30, 2022 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Aerial view of Cinelandia District in downtown Rio de Janeiro as supporters of newly elected president of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva celebrate his victory in the runoff against Bolsonaro on 30 October 30, 2022 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Photograph: Wagner Meier/Getty Images
President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (C) kisses his wife Janja (C-L) after his victory in the presidential election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 30 October 2022.
President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (C) kisses his wife Janja (C-L) after his victory in the presidential election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 30 October 2022. Photograph: Sebastião Moreira/EPA
Vanda Witoto (centre) indigenous leader of the Witoto ethnic group, watches with family and friends, as votes are counted in the second round of the 2022 Brazilian elections, in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, 30 October 2022.
Vanda Witoto (centre) indigenous leader of the Witoto ethnic group, watches with family and friends, as votes are counted in the second round of the 2022 Brazilian elections, in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, 30 October 2022. Photograph: Michael Dantas/AFP/Getty Images
Supporters of former Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hug each other as they learn he won Brazil's presidential election, while following the results at a Brazilian cultural association in Lisbon, Sunday evening, 30 October 2022.
Supporters of former Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hug each other as they learn he won Brazil's presidential election, while following the results at a Brazilian cultural association in Lisbon, Sunday evening, 30 October 2022. Photograph: Armando França/AP
President-elect Inacio Lula da Silva speaks after winning the presidential run-off election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 30 October 2022.
President-elect Inacio Lula da Silva speaks after winning the presidential run-off election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 30 October 2022. Photograph: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Here are the key developments over the last few hours:

  • Former Brazilian president and leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, beat far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff round of Brazil’s national elections.

  • The stunning political comeback welcomed by environmental, indigenous and progressive activists. Bolsonaro’s presidency saw deforestation in the Amazon increase to a 15-year high.

  • With 100% of votes counted in one of the world’s largest democracies – there are 156 million eligible voters in Brazil – Lula had 50.9% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 49.1%. The president-elect will take office on 1 January 2023.

  • Bolsonaro’s leadership saw nearly 700,000 Brazilians die of Covid.

  • Addressing journalists at a hotel in São Paulo, Lula vowed to reunify his country. “We are going to live in new times of peace, love and hope,” said the 77-year-old, who was sidelined from the 2018 election that saw Bolsonaro claim power after being jailed on corruption charges that were later annulled.

  • As Brazilians headed to the polls for the second time in a month, there were alarming reports of voter suppression, with members of the federal highway police – a notoriously pro-Bolsonaro security force – setting up roadblocks in Lula strongholds in the country’s north-east.

  • Lula’s winning margin is the closest since 1989, when Brazilians voted for a president for the first time since the end of the military dictatorship. With just a handful of votes still to be counted Lula is ahead by approximately 50.7% to 49.3%.

  • In the first round of voting, Lula gained 48.43% of votes to Bolsonaro’s 43.20%, failing to secure the more than 50% needed for an outright majority.

Tonight’s victory is also a win for Brazil’s LGBT community, which also saw wins in the first round of voting, which saw two trans candidates elected to congress for the first time in history.

Transgender candidates Erika Hilton and Duda Salabert won easy election to the chamber of deputies where they promised to fight for LGBT rights.

Supporters of Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva celebrate in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 30 October 2022.
Supporters of Brazilian former President (2003-2010) and candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva celebrate in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 30 October 2022. Photograph: Caio Guatelli/AFP/Getty Images

As Gabrielly Soares, a 19-year-old student told my colleague Tom Phillips earlier, “This means we are going to have someone in power who cares about those at the bottom. Right now we have a person who doesn’t care about the majority, about us, about LGBT people”.

Bolsonaro is openly, loudly homophobic, ridiculing LGBT Brazilians, and used homophobic slurs to ridicule mask wearing during the Covid pandemic.

Updated

In his third term, Lula will confront a sluggish economy, tighter budget constraints and a more hostile legislature. Bolsonaro’s allies form the largest bloc in Congress after this month’s general election revealed the enduring strength of his conservative coalition.

Rightwing news outlet Antagonista: Bolsonaro will not challenge result, won't call Lula

Brazilian rightwing website Antagonista reports that Bolsonaro “will not call the president-elect” tonight, but also that he does not “intend to question the result,” citing representatives of Bosonaro’s who spoke to the website.

If this is true, it will come as a relief amid widespread fears that Bolsonaro, a former army captain who has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, might refuse to accept defeat.

Bolsonaro supporters meanwhile:

Lula open to international co-operation to save Amazon rainforest

In his speech this evening, president-elect Lula invited international cooperation to preserve the Amazon rainforest and said he will seek fair global trade rather than trade deals that “condemn our country to be an eternal exporter of raw materials.”

Environmentalist Marina Silva, a prominent centrist who backed Lula’s campaign, told the Guardian’s Tom Phillips this evening, “It’s so sad that so many people who dreamed of this moment are no longer here.”

She was paying tribute to murdered Guardian journalist Dom Phillips and indigenous expert Bruno Pereira, who were killed in Brazilian Amazonia in June 2022 while researching a book Phillips was writing called How to Save the Amazon.

More from Lula’s speech, via long-time Brazil correspondent Andrew Downie.

“We have the duty to guarantee that every Brazilian can eat breakfast, lunch and dinner every day and that will once again be the priority of my government.”

In his first two terms, Lula built an extensive social welfare program, the “Bolsa Família, that helped lift tens of millions of Brazilians into the middle class. Bolsonaro ended Bolsa Família in 2021, after introducing a new system, called Auxílio Brasil.

Updated

Tomorrow’s Guardian front page:

Lula: 'We are one country, one people – a great nation'

Addressing journalists at a hotel in São Paulo, Lula vowed to reunify his country after a toxic race for power which has profoundly divided one of the world’s largest democracies.

“We are going to live in new times of peace, love and hope,” said the 77-year-old, who was sidelined from the 2018 election that saw Bolsonaro claim power after being jailed on corruption charges that were later annulled.

“I will govern for 215m Brazilians … and not just for those who voted for me. There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people – a great nation,” he said to applause.

“It is in nobody’s interests to live in a country that is divided and in a constant state of war.”

Workers party candidate Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva speaks after being elected president of Brazil on October 30, 2022.
Workers party candidate Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva speaks after being elected president of Brazil on October 30, 2022. Photograph: Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images

Updated

Uruguayan political scientist Andrés Malamud has crunched some numbers, and suggests that the recent wave of left-wing victories in South America is thanks more to voter dissatisfaction with their current leaders than to ideology.

He points out that, “the left won 6 of the last 11 presidential elections in South America. The opposition, 10 of 11”.

“More than ideology, it’s because voters are fed up,” he writes:

Updated

Are you in Brazil? Are you a Brazilian celebrating the results far from home? Send a pic on Twitter @helenrsullivan.

Lula: Brazil is back

Speaking in São Paulo, Brazil’s president-elect has a message for the world: “Brazil is back!”.

My colleague Tom Phillips, the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, is in the room:

Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has congratulated Brazil’s new president, saying, “The people of Brazil have spoken,” and that he looks forward to working with Lula “to strengthen the partnership between our countries, to deliver results for Canadians and Brazilians, and to advance shared priorities – like protecting the environment.”

Lula promises 'relentless fight against racism, prejudice and discrimination'

In his victory speech in São Paulo, Brazil’s president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has promised “a relentless fight against racism, prejudice and discrimination so that whites and blacks and indigenous people have the same rights and the same opportunities.”

This was the country’s closest election in over three decades. Just over 2 million votes separated the two candidates with 99.5% of the vote counted. The previous closest race, in 2014, was decided by a margin of 3.46 million votes.

Lula: This is a victory for a democratic movement

“This is a victory for a democratic movement, above the interests of parties and ideologies,” Lula says in his speech after making an astonishing comeback to win Brazil’s presidential elections in a run-off:

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks to supporters after his runoff victory on Sunday, 30 October 2022.
Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks to supporters after his runoff victory on Sunday, 30 October 2022. Photograph: André Penner/AP

Lula: 'They tried to bury me alive but I'm here'

Lula has opened on a somewhat dark note, saying, “They tried to bury me alive but I’m here”:

Lula has arrived at the podium to make his victory speech, but stopped to take a call:

Updated

In case you’re just joining us, Brazil’s former leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has sealed an astonishing political comeback, beating the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in one of the most significant and bruising elections in the country’s history.

With 99% of votes counted, Silva, a former factory worker who became Brazil’s first working-class president exactly 20 years ago, had secured 50.8% of the vote. Bolsonaro, a firebrand who was elected in 2018, received 49.1%.

We’re expecting to hear from Lula soon – the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, is in the room and will bring it to us live.

The congratulations from world leaders are coming in fast.

Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández celebrated “a new era in Latin American history”. “An era of hope and of a future that starts right now.”

Spain’s prime minter Pedro Sánchez called Lula’s triumph a move towards “progress and hope”.

The speed of the international reaction reflects widespread fears that Bolsonaro, a former army captain who has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, might refuse to accept defeat. In the lead up to the election he indicated he would contest a result he considered “abnormal”.

Updated

We should be hearing from Lula any minute:

Biden congratulates Lula on victory in 'free, fair, and credible' elections

US President Joe Biden has just released a statement congratulating Lula “following free, fair, and credible elections”.

“I look forward to working together to continue the cooperation between our two countries in the months and years ahead,” he said.

Long-time Brazil correspondent Andrew Downie reports that Lula’s win will come as a relief to Brazil’s Indigenous people.

Survival International, the NGO that campaigns for the rights of indigenous peoples across the world, said Lula’s victory was “a matter of life or death for Indigenous people nationwide, and for the uncontacted tribes in the Amazon, it could mean the difference between survival and complete destruction.”

Bolsonaro made his scorn for Indigenous people plain, once lamenting the Brazilian military had not been as ruthless in wiping out native peoples as their US counterparts. He refused to sign over more land to endangered tribes during his four years in power and his signals that the Amazon was open for business led to a sharp rise in illegal mining, ranching, hunting and logging.

An indigenous Tikuna woman queues to vote in Umariacu, Amazonas State, Brazil, on 30 October 2022.
An indigenous Tikuna woman queues to vote in Umariacu, Amazonas State, Brazil, on 30 October 2022. Photograph: Carlos Suarez/AFP/Getty Images

Lula has promised to create a ministry of native peoples and Survival’s Brazil director Sarah Shenker said they will be watching whether he keeps his promises.

“Lula’s pledges are welcome, but we are not expecting a u-turn overnight,” she said.

“His team will need to exert substantial political will and resources to undo the deep damage that has been done to the institutions charged with protecting Indigenous territories from invaders. Many anti-Indigenous politicians have been appointed to key positions in Congress, meaning that Lula and his team will face fierce opposition to attempts to uphold the constitution and protect Indigenous territories for Indigenous peoples’ exclusive use. And the political forces and global markets fuelling the genocide of the Indigenous peoples of Brazil will not go away.

“We’ll do all it takes to ensure that he upholds national and international law, blocks big infrastructure projects impacting Indigenous peoples’ lands that don’t have their consent, and protects Indigenous territories so that Indigenous peoples can survive and thrive and be respected as the contemporary societies that they are. The stakes are particularly high for uncontacted tribes – the most vulnerable peoples on the planet.”

Updated

Brazilian pop star Anitta says, “Relief. If love won, now it’s time to put that love into practice. Putting democracy into practice. Welcoming and respecting the neighbour who voted differently, understanding and respecting the person who voted the same as you but disagrees on some things.”

In April, Lula tapped centre-right Geraldo Alckmin, a former rival, to be his running mate.

It was another key part of an effort to create a broad, pro-democracy front to not just unseat Bolsonaro, but to make it easier to govern. Da Silva also has drawn support from Senator Simone Tebet, a moderate who finished in third place in the election’s first round.

Updated

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has congratulated Lula, saying that his win “opens a new page in the history of Brazil”.

“Together, we will join forces to meet the many common challenges and renew the bond of friendship between our two countries,” he said.

Lula has pledged to put a halt to illegal deforestation in the Amazon, and once again has prominent environmentalist Marina Silva by his side, years after a public falling out when she was his environment minister. The president-elect has already pledged to install a ministry for Brazil’s original peoples, which will be run by an Indigenous person.

Voters arrive to a polling station at the Ceu Butanta school to vote in the presidential run-off election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, 30 October 2022.
Voters arrive to a polling station at the Ceu Butanta school to vote in the presidential run-off election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, 30 October 2022. Photograph: Matias Delacroix/AP

Portugal’s president, António Costa, has already congratulated Lula over the phone, he said in a tweet, adding: “I look forward to our work together in the coming years with great enthusiasm, in favour of #Portugal and #Brasil, but also around great global causes.”

Updated

From the Associated Press:

Thomas Traumann, an independent political analyst, compared the results to US president Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, saying da Silva is inheriting an extremely divided nation.

“The huge challenge that Lula has will be to pacify the country,” he said. “People are not only polarised on political matters, but also have different values, identity and opinions. What’s more, they don’t care what the other side’s values, identities and opinions are.”

Lula supporters in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 30 2022.
Lula supporters in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 30 October 2022. Photograph: Pablo Porciuncula/AFP/Getty Images

Bolsonaro had been leading throughout the first half of the count and, as soon as da Silva overtook him, cars in the streets of downtown São Paulo began honking their horns. People in the streets of Rio de Janeiro’s Ipanema neighbourhood could be heard shouting, “It turned!”

Da Silva’s headquarters in downtown São Paulo hotel only erupted once the final result was announced, underscoring the tension that was a hallmark of this race.

“Four years waiting for this,” said Gabriela Souto, one of the few supporters allowed in due to heavy security.

Updated

Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has congratulated Lula, saying “There will be equality and humanism”:

(When Lula won the first round but failed to secure an outright majority, Obrador appeared to mistakenly congratulate him on an overall victory).

Updated

Brazil’s future president has posted the below photograph of his hand on the Brazilian flag, with the caption “Democracia”. Lula lost his pinkie finger in a work accident decades ago:

Updated

The mood is a little different in Rio de Janeiro, where, journalist Constance Mallaret reports, Bolsonaro’s supporters gathered outside the president’s home in the western neighbourhood of Barra da Tijuca to watch the vote count, clad in yellow football shirts and waving the Brazilian flag – symbols that have become synonymous with the president’s nationalist movement.

Their high spirits fell as Lula pulled ahead, with pro-Bolsonaro jingles and firecrackers giving way to evangelical songs and prayers.

“I’m angry,” said Monique Almeido, a 36-year-old beautician, as Lula’s victory looked inevitable. “We’re demotivated, I don’t even know what to say.”

“It’s fraud without a doubt, they manipulated the count. The armed forces must intervene,” said João Reis, a 50-year-old electrician. And if they don’t? “The population must take to the streets to demand military intervention so that we don’t hand power over to the communists.”

From atop a sound truck, a man draped in the Israeli flag, another symbol often used by evangelical Bolsonaro supporters, and who identified himself as Felipe Pitanga, aggressively echoed such calls to reject the results. But most supporters were heading home resigned. “He is not leaving! I do not accept [Bolsonaro’s defeat]!” the man chanted to the rapidly dwindling crowd.

Updated

The Guardian’s Tom Philips is waiting to hear Lula’s speech in São Paulo:

Lula stages astonishing comeback to beat far-right Bolsonaro in Brazil election

Brazil’s former leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has sealed an astonishing political comeback, beating the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in one of the most significant and bruising elections in the country’s history.

With 99% of votes counted, Silva, a former factory worker who became Brazil’s first working-class president exactly 20 years ago, had secured 50.8% of the vote. Bolsonaro, a firebrand who was elected in 2018, received 49.1%.

A few streets away on Paulista Avenue, one of the city’s main arteries, ecstatic Lula supporters gathered to celebrate his victory and the downfall of a radical rightwing president whose presidency produced an environmental tragedy and saw nearly 700,000 Brazilians die of Covid.

“Our dream is coming true. We need to be free,” beamed Joe Kallif, a 62-year-old social activist who was among the elated throng. “Brazil was in a very dangerous place and now we are getting back our freedom. The last four years have been horrible.”

Gabrielly Soares, a 19-year-old student, jumped in joy as she commemorated the imminent victory of a leader whose social policies helped her achieve a university education.

“I feel so happy … During four years of Bolsonaro I saw my family slip backwards and under Lula they flourished,” she said, a rainbow banner draped over her shoulders.

Ecstatic and tearful supporters of Lula – who secured more than 59m votes to Bolsonaro’s 57m – hugged and threw cans of beer in the air.

“This means we are going to have someone in power who cares about those at the bottom. Right now we have a person who doesn’t care about the majority, about us, about LGBT people,” Soares said. “Bolsonaro … is a bad person. He doesn’t show a drop of empathy or solidarity for others. There is no way he can continue as president.”

There was celebration around the region too as leftist allies tweeted their congratulations. “Viva Lula,” said Colombia’s leader, Gustavo Petro.

Long-time Brazil correspondent Andrew Downie reports that 77-year-old Lula, the leader of the Workers’ party, will take power on 1 January to begin his third term, following two consecutive terms between 2003 and 2011.

Lula supporters react as results come in for Brazil’s runoff elections.
Lula supporters react as results come in for Brazil’s runoff elections. Photograph: Ricardo Moraes/Reuters

Lula win confirmed by Supreme Electoral Court

And now it’s official. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the new president of Brazil. His victory has been confirmed with the Supreme Electoral Court. With 98.86 % of the votes counted Lula has 50.83 % and Bolsonaro has 49.17%.

Electoral authority calls election for Lula

Brazil’s electoral authority has called the runoff for leftist Lula da Silva, which means he has won presidential election, defeating far-right incumbent Bolsonaro.

This is the most important result in decades for one of the world’s largest democracies –and for the future of the Amazon and the planet.

Eduardo Leite has won 57.10% of the vote in the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race, after beating Onyx Lorenzoni who received 42.90%. Results are provided by the Superior Electoral Court, and are mathematically defined.

Updated

A note that the electoral authority has yet to confirm a winner.

Updated

Brazilian newspaper Folha explains how the polling firm Datafolha called the result:

And here is the historic tweet announcing that Datafolha had declared Lula the winner:

Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro is growing slightly but surely:

There were wild and tearful celebrations on São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue as news that Lula had overtaken Bolsonaro and was heading for victory arrived.

“Our dream is coming true. We need to be free,” beamed Joe Kallif, a 62-year-old social activist who was among the elated throng.

“Brazil was in a very dangerous place and now we are getting back our freedom. The last four years have been horrible.”

“This means we are going to have someone in power who cares about those at the bottom,” said Gabrielly Soares, a 19-year-old student. “Right now we have a person who doesn’t care about the majority, about us, about LGBT people,” Soares said.

Lula supporters celebrate while watching the vote count of the presidential run-off election at the Paulista avenue in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 30 October 2022.
Lula supporters celebrate while watching the vote count of the presidential run-off election at the Paulista avenue in São Paulo, Brazil, on 30 October 2022. Photograph: Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images

Long-time Brazil correspondent Andrew Downie points out that, as Lula looks likely to have won the election, the other historical note is that Jair Bolsonaro becomes the first president since the 1990s to be voted out of office. Before him all presidents who attempted a second term were voted back in.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso in 1998, Lula himself in 2006 and Dilma Rousseff in 2014 all won a second four-year term. Bolsonaro is the first president to be rejected at the ballot box.

The Guardian’s Tom Phillips waiting to hear what is looking likely to be a victory speech by Lula:

Pollster Datafolha call election for Lula

Lula has won Brazil’s bitterly fought election, according to polling firm Datafolha, denying far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro a second term.

With 95% of the votes counted in Latin America’s largest country, the polling firm called the election.

The official count stood at 50.7% of votes for Lula against 49.3% for Bolsonaro.

A significant number of votes still remain to be counted in the Bolsonaro stronghold state of Sao Paulo, but, according to the pollster, Lula has it.

Updated

Meanwhile with the governor race now mathematically defined, Tarcisio de Freitas won 55.32% of the vote, and is poised to be the next governor of Sao Paulo after beating Fernando Haddad who received 44.68%. Results are provided by the Superior Electoral Court.

Lula has edged ahead of Bolsonaro in the bellwether state of Minas Gerais:

Lula's margin closest since 1989

Long-time Brazil correspondent Andrew Downie reports that Lula’s winning margin is the closest since 1989, when Brazilians voted for a president for the first time since the end of the military dictatorship. With just a handful of votes still to be counted Lula is ahead by approximately 50.7% to 49.3%.

The previous closest margin was in 2014, when Dilma Rousseff won a second consecutive term by beating Aécio Neves by 51.6% to 48.4%.

Lula will hope that is not an omen: Dilma was impeached two years later and the convulsions that followed paved the way for the rise of the far-right.

Updated

Reports of voter suppression as Brazilians headed to the polls for runoff round

A reminder that as Brazilians headed to the polls for the second time in a month, there were alarming reports of voter suppression, with members of the federal highway police – a notoriously pro-Bolsonaro security force – setting up roadblocks in Lula strongholds in the country’s north-east.

Brazil’s opposition denounced the unusual operations, which were reportedly planned during a meeting at Bolsonaro’s official presidential residence, as a deliberate attempt to prevent Lula voters reaching their polling stations.

“There is only one name for this: a desperate attempt to clobber our democracy,” tweeted Marina Silva, a prominent centrist politician who has backed Lula’s campaign.

Moraes demanded an immediate end to the police operations and summoned the highway police’s director – who reportedly posted a pro-Bolsonaro message on social media on the eve of the election – to explain why his forces were defying a judicial decision outlawing such activities on election day.

Lula supporters flooded social media with calls for police to “let the north-east vote”.

Randolfe Rodrigues, an opposition senator who is a key member of Lula’s team, demanded the immediate arrest of the highway police director, Silvinei Vasques.

“Crooks! Criminals! Bolsonaro is using the government apparatus to try to stop poor people voting … We must unite for our democracy and for our people,” Rodrigues tweeted.

Unusual security operations involving the military police and army were also reported in Rio de Janeiro.

A recent investigation by the magazine Piauí revealed that Vasques was appointed at the suggestion of Bolsonaro’s senator son, Flávio Bolsonaro. “Since taking over the corporation, Silvinei Vaques has strictly adhered to the Bolsonarista playbook,” Piauí reported.

Addressing the media on Sunday, De Moraes cautioned against overstating the impact of the police operations on voters but said an investigation would look at whether there had been an abuse of authority:

In case you’re just joining us, leftist candidate and former president of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, has overtaken far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the run-off – and final – round of Brazil’s national elections.

Lula failed to win an outright majority in the first round, winning by 6 million votes but falling short of an outright majority.

In the first round of voting, Lula gained 48.43% of votes to Bolsonaro’s 43.20%.

He is currently on 50.7% to Bolsonaro’s 49.3%, with 96.7% of votes counted.

Pollster DataFolha projecting a Lula win

Pollster DataFolha is projecting a win for Lula, the newspaper Folha (Brazil’s largest) reports:

Journalist Constance Mallaret is in Rio de Janeiro:

Updated

Let’s check in on the bellwether state of Minas Gerais. Bolsonaro is ahead, but by just 0.3%.

A reminder that it has been more than 70 years since a Brazilian took the presidency without winning Minas Gerais:

Lula has widened his lead slightly, to 1% over Bolsonaro:

In the first round of voting, Lula gained 48.43% of votes to Bolsonaro’s 43.20%.

Updated

Why are results coming in so much faster?

Brazil correspondent Andrew Downie explains why the results have come in so fast:

The election count was quick on Sunday, quicker than during the first round four weeks ago because there are fewer races this time.

Unlike on 2 October, when there were ballots for Congress, governors and state assemblies in 27 states, this time around the presidential election was the main event, accompanied by just 12 gubernatorial run-off elections.

That means that within two hours of the polls closing, more than 80 % of votes had been counted in the presidential race.

Updated

Lula is approaching a 1% lead:

It is currently just after 7pm in Rio de Janeiro, and it looks like we may have a final result within the next two hours, if not by 8pm.

I overestimated the timing earlier, my apologies.

The results are coming in much faster than in the first round because there are only two candidates – the two run-off candidates, who received the most votes in the first round.

Lula won the recent first round by about 6 million votes but fell just short of the overall majority that would have guaranteed him an outright win.

And also in São Paulo:

Updated

Lula has overtaken Bolsonaro in the same pattern as the first round – if the count continues along those lines, he will win:

Lula overtakes Bolsonaro

Lefttist Lula has overtaken far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the run-off (and final) round of Brazil’s election:

It looks like Lula may overtake Bolsonaro as we hit 70% of votes counted, which is what happened last time. But unlike last time, if Lula wins this round, he wins the presidency.

With 65.6% counted, Bolsonaro and Lula each have exactly 50% of the vote:

The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, is on the ground in São Paulo:

Bolsonaro’s lead has narrowed further, now down to just 0.2% as we near the 60% mark:

Is that the nail-biting emoji? Teeth clenched in cautious optimism?

With half of districts counted, Bolsonaro's lead narrows to 0.6%

Just over half of districts have now been counted, and things appear to be moving much faster than they did in the first round.

Bolsonaro’s lead has now narrowed again, in keeping with the trend we’ve seen so far, as more and more regional districts – which is where Lula supporters are concentrated – report their results.

In the first round, it took until 70% of votes were counted for Lula to overtake Bolsonaro, as this useful graph shows:

Now, as we pass 50%, Bolsonaro’s lead is just 0.6%:

With over 40% of districts counted, Bolsonaro's lead narrows further

We’re approaching the halfway mark, and as we do – and regional districts report – Bolsonaro’s lead is growing smaller. It is now down to 1%, from 2.6% with a quarter of districts counted:

Here is more on Minas Gerais:

Brazil’s second most populous and fourth largest state has become ground zero for the scrap between the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his leftist challenger, the ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

No president has won power without prevailing in Minas Gerais since Getúlio Vargas did so in 1950 and observers expect this year to be the same.

“It’s Minas that will determine which direction Brazil takes,” Felipe Nunes, a political scientist from the state’s federal university says.

Alert to the vital importance of the state’s 16 million voters, both campaigns have been blitzing Minas, roaming thousands of kilometres across a vast, mountainous state nearly 2.5 times the size of the UK.

One scorching morning last week, Lula jetted into Teófilo Otoni, a commercial hub in the state’s impoverished north-east, to a hero’s welcome.

Accompanying Lula were two women central to his attempt to attract non-leftist voters: the centre-left ex-minister Marina Silva and the centre-right senator Simone Tebet, who endorsed Lula after coming third in the election’s first round.

A Lula victory would represent the latest in a series of triumphs for a resurgent Latin American left, following the election of leftist leaders in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Chile.

The prospect of Lula winning has galvanised leftwing and centrist Brazilians. During the four years under Bolsonaro, nearly 700,000 people died of Covid and more than 30 million were plunged into poverty and hunger.

Bolsonaro's lead narrows as just over a third of districts counted

Far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s lead over leftist Lula has narrowed from 2.6% to 1.9% as just over a third of districts are counted – this likely reflects that results are starting to come in from regional areas, where Lula has stronger support:

The Guardian’s reporters on the ground in Brazil spoke to voters in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro on Sunday:

“I feel optimistic but terrified too, like all Brazilians who are rooting for democracy and for the Amazon,” said Tica Minami, an environmental activist who planned to vote for Lula.

“We want to start rebuilding, but this will only be possible once Bolsonaro has left power,” Minami added.

“The future is at stake here. We can’t let Bolsonaro be re-elected,” said 19-year-old Tales Takezo, one of thousands of Lula supporters who packed São Paulo’s most famous avenue on Saturday afternoon for the leftist’s final campaign act, the “march to victory”.

“We have to fight until the very end, and we are still fighting because the fight is not over,” Takezo addded.

In Barra da Tijuca, a bastion of Bolsonaro support in Rio de Janeiro, Rubens Francisco Dias Filho cast his vote while wearing Brazil’s yellow football shirt, which has become a symbol of Bolsonaro’s nationalist movement.

“I’m optimistic. We see on the streets that a huge majority support Bolsonaro. We are worried there might be fraud though,” the 52-year-old commercial director said, echoing Bolsonaro’s unfounded claims that Brazil’s electronic voting system is vulnerable to fraud.

A glimmer of hope from the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips. Lula is currently (just) ahead in the bellwether state Minas Gerais:

Your bit of trivia for the day is that the term “bellwether” comes from the leading sheep of a flock, which would have a bell on its neck.

How are votes counted?

Despite the fact that Brazil is the world’s fourth-largest democracy, results from more than 150 million eligible voters are presented mere hours after polls close, thanks to the country’s electronic voting system. And no significant fraud has ever been detected.

Electronic machines were first used in 1996 and the first nationwide, electronic-only vote took place four years later.

Brazilian authorities adopted electronic voting machines to tackle longstanding fraud. In earlier elections, ballot boxes arrived at voting stations already stuffed with votes. Others were stolen and individual votes were routinely falsified, according to Brazil’s electoral authority.

Ahead of the first round of voting, President Jair Bolsonaro was feeding concern about the nation’s electronic voting system. He has long insisted that the machines, used for a quarter-century, are prone to fraud, though he acknowledged last year that hasn’t been proved.

Brazil’s top electoral authority maintain the system has been tested rigorously.

Bolsonaro's lead widens slightly as a quarter of districts counted

Bolsonaro’s lead has grown to 2.6% with 25% of districts counted, from 2.2% with a fifth of districts counted. But again, this may not be indicative of the final result – Bolsonaro’s supporters are concentrated in urban areas, which are faster to report:

The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, explains:

Bolsonaro ahead with 20% of districts counted

Results are coming in fast, and with a fifth of districts counted, Bolsonaro has taken an early lead.

The far-right incumbent is ahead by just over three points.

Because results come in faster from urban seats, where Bolsonaro’s supporters are concentrated, it is expected that he will take an early lead. But polls have Lula four points ahead overall, so he may pull ahead in the coming hours.

Lula’s Workers’ party usually gets stronger support in regions that are slower to report results. Results followed the same pattern in the first round.

Updated

Who is Jair Bolsonaro?

Since 2019, far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has has led an administration marked by incendiary speech, his testing of democratic institutions, his widely criticised handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the worst deforestation in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.

But he has built a devoted base by defending conservative values, rebuffing political correctness and presenting himself as protecting the nation from leftist policies that he says infringe on personal liberties and produce economic turmoil.

Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of Liberal Party (PL), who is running for another term, greets supporters after casting his vote at Vila Militar district on 30 October 2022 in Brasilia, Brazil.
Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of Liberal party, who is running for another term, greets supporters after casting his vote at Vila Militar district on 30 October 2022 in Brasilia, Brazil. Photograph: João Laet/Getty Images

Updated

Who is Lula?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, became the country’s first working-class president in 2002.

Lula stepped down after two terms in 2010 with approval ratings close to 90%. But the following decade saw the Workers’ party (PT) he helped found embroiled in a tangle of corruption scandals and accused of plunging Brazil into a brutal recession.

Leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) casts his vote at Escola Estadual Firmino Correia De Araújo on 3- October 2022 in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil.
Leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva of the Workers’ party casts his vote at Escola Estadual Firmino Correia De Araújo on 3 October 2022 in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil. Photograph: Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images

His apparently irremediable downfall was cemented in 2018 when he was jailed on corruption charges and barred from running in that year’s election, which Bolsonaro went on to win. Lula’s 580-day imprisonment seemed a melancholy end to a fairytale life that saw him rise from rural poverty to become one of the world’s most popular leaders.

But Lula was freed in late 2019 and his convictions were quashed on the grounds that he was unfairly tried by Sérgio Moro, a rightwing judge who later took a job in Bolsonaro’s cabinet.

Lula, who first sought the presidency in 1989, announced his sixth presidential run in May, vowing to beat Bolsonaro by staging “the greatest peaceful revolution the world has ever seen”.

Updated

Voting has closed. When will we know the results?

Voting has closed in Brazil, where it is early Sunday evening.

Results will start coming in quickly, and we are likely to know the winner within hours – probably before 9pm in Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil’s electronic voting system means that ballots are counted quickly (and accurately).

Updated

The future of one of the world’s largest democracies and the Amazon rainforest was on a knife edge as Brazil held its most important election in decades and its far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, battled to cling to power amid claims that security forces were engaged in a pro-Bolsonaro voter suppression campaign.

Polls on the eve of the election had showed Bolsonaro trailing his leftist rival, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, by a margin of four to eight percentage points, although first-round polls had underestimated support for the incumbent. Lula won the recent first round by about 6 million votes but fell just short of the overall majority that would have guaranteed him an outright win.

“For many people, this will be a very special day in Brazil’s history,” Lula told reporters as he voted in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where the former union leader began his political career in the 1970s.

Tens of millions of progressive Brazilians were hoping he was right as they turned out to vote against a radical right-wing president whom they accuse of catastrophically mishandling the coronavirus pandemic and wreaking havoc on the environment and Brazil’s international reputation.

Welcome

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the results in Brazil’s run-off elections. My name is Helen Sullivan and I’ll be bringing you the latest as it happens. If you have questions or see news you think I may have missed, you can find me on Twitter here.

With 156 million voters, Brazil is one of the world’s largest democracies and this is its most important election in decades, with progressives hopeful that Jair Bolsonaro will be unseated by leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in what would be one of the greatest political comebacks in history.

This is the second and final round of voting after Lula, who had, according to polls, been expected to win an outright majority won the first round but failed to secure an overall majority. Bolsonaro’s support was stronger than anticipated and, as reports emerge of the notoriously Pro-Bolsonaro highway police setting up road blocks in Lula strongholds, there are very real fears that the far-right incumbent could keep his position.

Polls put Lula, as he is known, ahead of Bolsonaro by four points. A former union leader who lost three presidential elections before finally winning in 2002, the now 77-year-old leftist led the country for eight years before leaving office with approval ratings above 80%.

Bolsonaro’s botched handling of the pandemic has led to almost 700,000 deaths in Brazil and under his watch, deforestation in the Amazon rose to its highest levels in 15 years.

We will have more on the candidates, the run-off campaign and will bring you the results live as they come in.

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