Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
2022 stat line: five touchdowns, three interceptions, 58.6 completion %, 7.3 yards per attempt, 83.4 passer rating
That sound you hear is the Walton Family’s lawyers frantically trawling through Russell Wilson’s contract extension to figure out if there’s an early escape clause. In case you’ve forgotten: Wilson’s new deal means he’s on the books in Denver for seven years, at a total cost of $245m – an average of $43.5m per season.
It has been a disastrous start to his time in Denver. Wilson has shown an unwillingness to evolve his game, making him a wonky fit with Nathaniel Hackett’s particular style of offense. It’s not all been on Wilson, of course. The general operation of the offense – penalties, getting into the right plays, time management – has been poor, and the Broncos once-vaunted run game has fallen apart. But the whole point of trading a treasure trove of draft picks and players for Wilson is that he’s supposed to be able to paper over some of those concerns. Instead, the Broncos are averaging 16 points per game, the lowest mark in the league.
What’s the issue? Stubbornness? Declining athleticism? Poor decision-making? A lack of trust in the offense? A lack of trust in individual receivers?
The answer is most likely a combination of all of the above. The most pressing concern: his performance v pressure has cratered. A Russell Wilson who can no longer move to avoid pressure, to extend plays, to pick up chunk yardage, isn’t really Russell Wilson.
In the medium term, subbing out Hackett for a coach more in-sync with Wilson’s style makes sense. But that won’t cover up the quarterback’s declining play under pressure or his creaking legs. Oh, and the team still owes multiple draft picks to the Seattle Seahawks and will soon see Wilson absorb 25.5% of the team’s salary cap. The only positive: it cannot possibly get any worse.
Washed-up rating: 8/10
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
2022 stat line: 8 TDs, 7 INTs, 67.2 Cmp%, 7.0 Y/A, 86.2 passer rating
The Colts quarterback carousel is the NFL’s answer to the turducken. It sounds good, but the reality is disappointing.
Subbing out Carson Wentz for Matt Ryan hasn’t worked. Ryan was intended to be a 6ft 4in jar of polish who shaved off all of the dopey Wentz plays that inevitably cost Indy a playoff run last season. Instead, Ryan has been just as error-prone with little of the big-play upside.
Ryan’s failing arm strength is jarring, and has compromised some of the core concepts that typically make Frank Reich’s offense sing. Ryan has shifted from being a quarterback who can still fit the ball into tight windows to one with a whiff of late-era Peyton Manning about him; he’s lofting throws to the moon and asking his receivers to play catch-up.
Things have improved – slightly – in the past two weeks. When Michael Pittman Jr and Alec Pierce, the team’s top two receivers, are healthy, the offense is functional. But when one (or both) are out, there is no margin for error. Ryan is no longer athletic enough to overcome a struggling offensive line – and he’s no longer the kind of slip-and-slide playmaker in the pocket who can elevate the receiving talent around him.
There is value in having a quarterback whose game is based on smarts, even with a fading arm. But that relies on the team having the ideal situation around him. The Colts do not, and Ryan’s physical limitations have been exposed.
Washed-up rating: 9/10
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
2022 stat line: 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 67 Cmp%, 6.7 Y/A, 94.2 passer rating
Who had “six weeks” on the Rodgers-makes-snappy-comment-about-the-Packers-offense on their preseason bingo card? Rodgers and the Packers renewed their vows in the offseason but there are already signs of strain in the marriage. Asked about the Packers’ early-season struggles on offense, Rodgers told reporters that they needed to “simplify some things”. When that was put to head coach and offensive architect Matt LaFleur, he replied: “I don’t know what that means.”
Green Bay’s issues are not complicated. They aren’t blocking well. The ball isn’t coming out on time or with accuracy. Receivers aren’t winning early in the rep. Whenever receiver Christian Watson is off the field (which he has been consistently), they look slow.
Rodgers is one problem among many, but he has been a problem. He has oscillated wildly between someone who wants to play within the system and someone indulging his hero-ball tendencies. When the Packers offense devolves into Rodgers-v-the-world, it sputters. Through six weeks, he ranks 29th among eligible quarterbacks on throws of 20-yards or more, typically the area where he shines. When he gets the ball out quickly, the Packers offense still operates at a high-level. When Rodgers is forced to hold onto the ball, the offense stalls.
There’s no short-term fix. Perhaps picking up Odell Beckham in free agency or trading for a receiver will help ease some concerns. But that won’t account entirely for Rodgers’ lack of faith in what’s around him – or Rodgers consistently missing open throws. Still, it’s less a case of Rodgers’ skills waning and more a mental block and inconsistent performance.
Washed-up rating: 3/10
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 stat line: 8 TDs, 1 INT, 67.2 Cmp%, 6.7 Y/A, 95.1 passer rating
Do not let the off-the-field melodrama obscure a simple fact: Tom Brady is still ripping it.
Brady is still ripping it pic.twitter.com/RE2HGaBRmR
— Ollie Connolly (@OllieConnolly) October 17, 2022
The Bucs offense has been stuck in sludge for six weeks, but little of it is because of their quarterback. Tampa currently rank last in rush EPA, a measure of their effectiveness moving the ball on the ground. Brady, however, ranks sixth among quarterbacks. Issues along the offensive line have underpinned everything: the team’s inability to score in the redzone and the issues running the ball. Plus, Brady has been working with a rotating cast at receiver due to injuries and suspensions.
Tampa should be fine. The receiving corps is now healthy and the NFC is nowhere near as strong as the AFC. And unlike the Packers, the Bucs issues are less to do with the general design of the offense than pressing the right buttons at the correct time (Brady turning up to practices on Wednesdays would probably help with that). Writing off the Bucs or Brady right now would be folly.
Washed-up rating: 2/10
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders
2022 stat line: 10 TDs, 6 INTs, 62.1 Cmp%, 6.4 Y/A, 84.1 passer rating
When Washington made the move to acquire Wentz in the offseason, Ron Rivera and company baked his Wentz-ness into the equation. We’ll surround him with so many weapons and ask him to get rid of the ball quickly that we can inoculate him from back-breaking errors. So long as he’s average, and he hits those two special throws a game, we’ll be fine.
Or not. When asked recently why his team is lagging behind the rest of the NFC East, Rivera left no room for speculation. “Quarterback”, the Commanders head coach said. Wentz hasn’t been league average; he’s been bottom of the league bad. He currently ranks 30th among eligible quarterbacks in the RBSDM composite, which isolates a quarterback’s value to an offense. The only players sitting behind Wentz: Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields and Davis Mills.
The flaws in his game that were exposed in Philadelphia and Indianapolis continue to be an issue in his third stop in the league. For every impressive throw, there are two head-scratching decisions to undercut it.
Wentz will now miss up to six weeks with a finger injury. That gives the Commanders a chance to take another look at Taylor Heinicke, who will at least provide some drive-to-drive consistency, or to roll with rookie Sam Howell, who flashed in preseason.
Washed-up rating: 10/10
