After mid-major conferences ruled the day in the first weekend of men’s Championship Week, high-major action is heating up in the final days until Selection Sunday. All six major conferences have full slates of games on tap Thursday, making it one of the busiest days on the bracket calendar each year. Thursday is also critical because, particularly in recent years, the committee has seemed to place less emphasis on games as they get closer to Selection Sunday. The earlier teams can make noise, the better.
Here’s a look at some changes from the last 24 hours, the biggest things to watch in Thursday’s slate and Sports Illustrated’s latest projected bracket.
Notes from Wednesday’s games
- NCAA tournament selection committee chair Chris Reynolds clarified how the committee views injuries in seeding, which became critical after news broke that UCLA star Jaylen Clark will miss the remainder of the season with an Achilles injury. “If a player was injured last week and now they’re going into their conference tournament, their conference tournament games gives the committee an opportunity to watch and evaluate that team without that key player,” Reynolds said. If the Bruins struggle in the Pac-12 tournament, the injury could well be a deciding factor in knocking UCLA down to a No. 2 seed.
- Wisconsin’s loss in the first round of the Big Ten tournament may well be the final blow to the Badgers’ tournament hopes. Previously the first team out of SI’s projected field, the Badgers drop to the third team out. At 17–14 with the worst quality metrics among bubble teams, it’d be a surprise at this point if Wisconsin gets in, particularly as other teams still playing can improve their résumés while the Badgers sit at home.
- Pitt isn’t quite a lock given the potential for the bubble to shrink in the closing days of the season, but the Panthers got some much-needed security by beating Georgia Tech. Pitt can only help itself Thursday against Duke, and its 8–7 record against the first two quadrants positions itself well to get in. The First Four isn’t out of the question, but Pitt should dance at this point.
- Similar thoughts go for NC State. Calling the Wolfpack a lock would be strong, but they will almost certainly be in SI’s final projected field on Selection Sunday after beating Virginia Tech. This résumé is lacking quality at the top, but the Pack’s lack of a Quad 3 or 4 loss helps.
- Oklahoma State’s win over Oklahoma didn’t play the Cowboys into the field, but it did inch them closer, now SI’s first team out. Critically, Oklahoma State is now four games over .500 at 18–14. A win over Texas on Thursday would push the Cowboys into the field, but a loss wouldn’t eliminate them depending on other bubble results in the coming days.
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Thursday games to watch
- Rutgers vs. Michigan, noon ET, Big Ten Network
- Mississippi State vs. Florida, 1 p.m. ET, SEC Network
- Providence vs. UConn, 2:30 p.m. ET, FS1
- Pittsburgh vs. Duke, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
- Nevada vs. San José State, 5:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
- Penn State vs. Illinois, 6:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
- Oklahoma State vs. Texas, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
- North Carolina vs. Virginia, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Utah State vs. New Mexico, 11:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
- Arizona State vs. USC, 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Notes for Thursday’s games
- Games this time of year are too often labeled play-in games. That said, Rutgers vs. Michigan is essentially a “play-out” game. Michigan has virtually no NCAA tournament hope with a loss, while Rutgers would be moving dangerously close to the cut line and may not stay afloat with what would be a seventh loss in nine games.
- North Carolina’s game against Virginia is for all intents and purposes a must-win. It’s a chance for a second Quad 1 win of the season (a number still poor compared to other teams) as well as the opportunity to keep playing and adding to the Heels’ résumé.
- Penn State and Mississippi State each could improve their standing with wins Thursday. Both in SI’s projected last four byes, a loss wouldn’t be fatal, though it would make things a virtual toss-up on Selection Sunday.
- It’s a big day for the Mountain West’s bubble teams. After a disastrous end to the regular season, Nevada needs to get back on the right track against San José State. Meanwhile, Utah State will get a chance at a potential second Quad 1 win when it takes on New Mexico. Each team needs to win to feel good about their chances when they wake up on Selection Sunday.
- Arizona State could really use a win over USC on Thursday night in Pac-12 in quarterfinal play. A win there would likely move the Sun Devils into our projected field, while a loss would leave Arizona State likely a few spots from our projected Selection Sunday cut line.
On the bubble
Last Four Byes
NC State
Providence
Mississippi State
Penn State
Last Four In
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Utah State
Nevada
First Four Out
Oklahoma State
Arizona State
Wisconsin
North Carolina
Next Four Out
Michigan
Clemson
Oregon
North Texas
* Indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
***Indicates team has already clinched automatic bid
South Region
No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 SEMO***/Grambling State*
No. 8 Florida Atlantic* vs. No. 9 West Virginia
No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Iona*
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Mississippi State
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Furman***
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Purdue* vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville***
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 FDU***/Howard*
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts***
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Utah State
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Louisiana***
No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Providence
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Vermont*
East Region
No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC***
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Arkansas
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Charleston*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh/Nevada
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Montana State***
West Region
No. 1 UCLA* vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky***
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Drake***
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Toledo*
No. 6 San Diego State* vs. No. 11 Penn State
No. 3 Gonzaga*** vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Memphis
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State***
