Conference tournaments are underway, and Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away. It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for teams looking to punch their tickets to the NCAA tournament, and every game seems to have huge implications. After one of the best weekends of the season, here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s projected bracket on the final day of February.
ON THE BUBBLE:
Last Four Byes
Nevada
Memphis
West Virginia
Auburn
Last Four In
Boise State
Mississippi State
Arizona State
Wisconsin
First Four Out
Utah State
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Clemson
Next Four Out
Michigan
Texas Tech
Penn State
Oregon
The big winner of the weekend was Arizona State, which vaulted itself into the field with its stunning upset of Arizona in Tucson. The Sun Devils’ place in the field is still tenuous, but ASU gets two more big opportunities this weekend on the road at UCLA and USC; one win would put Arizona State in a strong position to go dancing.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State was a major loser of the weekend, dropping a pair of home games to fall to just 16–14 on the season. The losses essentially set up a must-win game on the road at Texas Tech on Saturday (considering the fact that no team has ever gotten an at-large bid with 16 losses). A loss there, and the Cowboys are likely in autobid-or-bust mode.
* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
South Region
No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Howard/FDU*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic*
No. 5 Saint Mary’s* vs. No. 12 Iona*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Marshall*
No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 West Virginia
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh*
No. 2 Kansas State vs. No. 15 Youngstown State*
Kansas State made the jump onto the No. 2 line in our last update, and the Wildcats solidified that spot by winning on the road at Oklahoma State on Saturday. After losing four of five earlier this month, the Wildcats have turned things around with three straight wins, and they have two more winnable games this week to round out Big 12 play. KSU’s two road wins against Baylor and Texas from early in conference play look even bigger now than they did at the time.
Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports
Kentucky has removed all doubt about its NCAA tournament hopes over the last two weeks, winning four consecutive games, three of which are currently Quad 1 wins. The Wildcats’ two bad losses to South Carolina and Georgia likely will cap the ceiling somewhat on seeding, but at this point, the 6–8 seed range seems realistic.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 Rutgers
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Toledo*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Wisconsin/Boise State
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Vermont*
Indiana’s road win at Purdue only further bolsters what was already a fairly strong résumé for Mike Woodson’s team. Given the NCAA tournament selection committee ranked the Hoosiers at No. 13 before that second Purdue win, the No. 3 line is very much in play for Indiana should the Hoosiers finish strong.
Miami’s stunning home loss against Florida State on Saturday (in which the Hurricanes blew a 25-point second-half lead) knocked them down to a No. 5 seed. There’s a case to be made that losing to 9–21 FSU is the worst loss by any team fighting for a protected top-four seed, so that game will without a doubt be an anchor for the Canes come Selection Sunday.
Things got dicey briefly for Rutgers’ NCAA tournament hopes, but the Knights’ dramatic comeback victory over Penn State on Sunday should at least temporarily assuage those fears. This team hasn’t played particularly well since forward Mawot Mag went down for the season with a knee injury, but that Quad 1 road win means another win over Minnesota on Thursday should punch RU’s ticket.
Watch college basketball with fuboTV. Start your free trial today.
West Region
No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC*
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 San Diego State* vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Auburn
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Hofstra*
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Nevada
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington*
UCLA bolstered its case for a No. 1 seed over the weekend with a pair of Quad 1 wins, jumping to the No. 5 overall team in the seed list—and making a real push for the last No. 1 seed after Purdue’s loss at home against Indiana. For now the Boilermakers stay ahead of the Bruins, but UCLA could jump them with a win over Arizona this weekend or another Purdue slipup.
Gonzaga clinched its 11th straight WCC title Saturday by beating Saint Mary’s. That victory adds to an already-impressive list of quality wins the Zags lay claim to, headlined by the team’s neutral-court win over Alabama in December. The No. 3 line seems like the most likely landing spot for the Bulldogs, but don’t rule out a No. 2 seed if Gonzaga can win the WCC tournament and get some help from teams above them losing.
James Snook/USA TODAY Sports
East Region
No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 UNC Asheville*
No. 8 Providence vs. No. 9 Missouri
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Bradley*
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Arizona State
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 Furman*
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Memphis
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State*
Maryland completed a 10–0 home record in Big Ten play by blowing out Northwestern over the weekend, moving the Terrapins to the No. 6 line. Their lack of a quality road win could hold them back, but the Terps will get a pair of Quad 1 opportunities away from home this week against Ohio State and Penn State before the Big Ten tournament.
Another team whose home-vs.-road splits are drastic is Providence, which is 15–0 at home and 6–8 in road and neutral games. Especially in a league like the Big East, with a clear drop-off after the top five, those road woes may be enough to keep Providence down on the No. 8 line. A win over Xavier this week might move the Friars up a bit, though.
