Thailand needs to improve its durian production to remain the top exporter amid tougher competition over the next five years, according to a Bank of Thailand report.
Thailand is the top durian exporter to China, with significant growth over the past five years.
In 2022, Thailand's total value of durian exports was 124 billion baht, an increase of 40% from 2018.
During 2015-18, the country's durian export growth rate was 22% on average, according to the Bank of Thailand report.
As durian has become more popular with Chinese consumers, the price of Thai durian has increased to 111 baht per kilogramme over the past 10 years, up from 33 baht.
The country's durian plantation area has also expanded significantly nationwide.
In 2022, China imported fresh durian weighing 824,855 tonnes, representing 80% of the world's consumption, followed by Hong Kong at 13%, Singapore at 2%, and 5% for others.
China imports 95% of its fresh durian from Thailand, with 5% from Vietnam.
China's durian imports are expected to increase in line with demand from consumers.
In 2021, China's durian consumption was 3.09 kg per person per year, dominated by China's first-tier and new first-tier cities.
"For the next five years, China's durian consumption is expected to increase by one kg per person per year, which will increase the country's durian demand by more than 1 million tonnes," said the central bank report.
China granted fresh durian imports from Thailand for a long time, then approved Vietnam in July 2022 and the Philippines in January 2023.
Several Asean countries are awaiting approval for fresh durian exports to China, including Laos, Malaysia and Cambodia.
In addition, China is trying to grow its own durian.
Given this backdrop, the fresh durian supply is expected to increase significantly over five years, which could lead to oversupply in the Chinese market, said the report.
Thailand can expect to face higher export competition, especially from Vietnam.
Vietnam has been expanding durian plantation areas and increasing production, according to the central bank.
Moreover, Vietnam and Thailand compete by offering the same "Monthong" durian variety, and have the same harvest season from May to September.
According to the report, Vietnam has two competitive advantages for fresh durian shipments to China compared with Thailand: lower prices and faster shipping.
The report said Thailand should search for new export markets, particularly China's second-tier cities and other countries, as well as adopt agricultural technology to improve productivity and develop a logistics system.
These improvements would help Thailand maintain its status as the leading durian exporter over the long term, the report said.
