Throughout this offseason, I’ll be reviewing the current status of all 30 MLB clubs, in reverse order of their standing on my 2021 year-end team true-talent rankings. Today, we continue with the No. 10 Boston Red Sox.
10. Boston Red Sox
Actual Record = 92-70, Projected Record = 89-73
Offensive Rating = 111.0 (5th), Pitching Rating = 94.8 (10th), Defensive Rating = 104.9 (27th); 2021 ASB = 15th, 2020 Final = 23rd
Though expectations were relatively low entering the 2021 season, the Boston Red Sox exceeded them and then some, falling just two wins short of a World Series berth. They were a fun team to watch, combining typical Red Sox hitting with just enough pitching to sustain their run.
As we wend our way through these 2021 team true-talent rankings, you might notice that there are still four AL East clubs to be covered as we enter the Top Ten. While these Sox ultimately wound up in the entire AL’s top two, the gap between them and those other three top divisional contenders has arguably only grown since season’s end.
The Yankees can slug with the Red Sox and have an alpha dog in Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation. The Rays’ offense is their weakest link, but their pitching and defense are the division’s best. The Blue Jay offense is an absolute juggernaut, and Kevin Gausman should ably fill in for Robbie Ray in a very strong rotation.
For the Red Sox to finish 10th overall in the MLB in pitching rating in 2021 was quite a feat, and two players were largely responsible. Nathan Eovaldi had an under-the-radar superb season, posting a 76 “Tru” ERA-, smack in between his 83 ERA- and 66 FIP-. The centerpiece of his arsenal was an extremely low 4.6% walk rate, best among 2021 AL ERA qualifiers. In addition, he was a bit above average in the other two key aspects of pitching - strikeout rate (25.5%) and contact management (90 Adjusted Contact Score).
Piece it all together and Eovaldi accumulated 21.0 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average, second only to Cole among AL ERA qualifiers (non-qualifiers Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon also snuck ahead of Eovaldi). You can make an argument that Eovaldi could have been even better, as he allowed a 23.3% liner rate, over a full standard deviation over league average, and such rates tend to swing wildly from year to year.
You can also make an even better argument that this is about the best case scenario the Red Sox could have expected from him. He had only pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title once previously, way back in 2014, and hadn’t even reached the 100 IP mark since 2018. At age 31, it was a true breakthrough season for the righthander. And how often do real breakthroughs occur at that age?
I’m buying the quality on a per inning basis from Eovaldi, but I wouldn’t bet on the quantity given his track record. And if there is a team with designs on contention in 2022 that is counting more on its ostensible #1 starter than the Red Sox, I’d like to see them.
But at least he’s back in a Sox uniform in 2022. The Sox’ other 2021 impact starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed with the Detroit Tigers as a free agent, isn’t. My batted ball-based methods like Rodriguez’ 2021 season even better than Eovaldi’s on a per inning basis. He posted a higher K rate, with a slightly better Adjusted Contact Score (88) and “Tru” ERA- (75) than Eovaldi. His walk rate was a little worse, and he didn’t carry quite the innings load, but his 18.9 “Tru” Pitching Runs above average were right behind Eovaldi’s total. Bar none, no starting pitcher in baseball was unluckier on balls in play than Rodriguez in 2021 - there was a gulf between his 133 Unadjusted Contact Score and his adjusted mark.
So very, very quietly, the Sox had two aces atop their rotation last season. One is gone, and the other was in uncharted waters. The club sure does hope that the other ace spot can be filled by Chris Sale. The club owes him $85M over the next three seasons for just that purpose.
Sale was a monster in his first year in Boston in 2017, but suffered from shoulder issues in 2018 and 2019, and then required Tommy John surgery on his elbow in 2020. The optimist would say, the stuff is back - he posted a strong 52/12 K/BB ratio in 42 2/3 innings following his return last season. The pessimist, or I might argue, the realist, would state - hey, he averaged less than five innings per start and was rarely able to get multiple outs without incident in the postseason. Only 39 pitchers tossed the requisite 162 innings to qualify for the ERA title last season - would you bet that Sale would rank among the 40 must durable major league starters in 2022?
It’s pretty clear that the Red Sox recognized the imperfect state of their pitching staff entering this offseason. Before the lockout kicked in, they added three new rotation options - lefties James Paxton and Rich Hill and righty Michael Wacha, guaranteeing them a total of $22M.
It’s best to look at Paxton and the 42-year-old Hill as an entry. The former has pitched only 21 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, and entering his age 33 campaign, has never qualified for an ERA title. On the rare occasions he has been healthy, he has flashed dominance. Hill’s 158 2/3 2021 innings were his most since - get this - 2007. He’s a pro’s pro, and his averaged over 100 innings per season since 2016, but expecting any more that would be folly at this point.
Wacha, like Hill, was a Rays’ reclamation project last season. Unlike Hill and just about everyone else, their secret sauce had no impact on Wacha. He throws strikes, but that’s about it - Wacha doesn’t command the zone well and allows tons of authoritative contact. He might give them innings, but chances are they won’t be effective ones, especially in Fenway.
Tanner Houck is a homegrown starting pitcher option that could make a difference, but he might fit best in the bullpen, where the Sox also have needs following the late-season fade of Matt Barnes. He’s durable enough to start, but has the delivery and repertoire of a late-inning reliever. If he can successfully incorporate his splitter into the mix and become a true six-inning guy, he could be the answer to the Sox’ prayers.
Barring such a development, the club should be in on the still unsigned Carlos Rodon once the lockout ends. Considering the already consummated additions of Paxton, Hill and Wacha for more than chump change, I doubt that’s happening. There’s a road to success for the 2021 Red Sox rotation, but given the current cast of characters, I have trouble counting to anywhere the 950 or so quality innings they are going to need.
THE 2021 SEASON
Enough about the pitching - how about that Red Sox offense? 3B Rafael Devers is arguably their foremost position player. He is great and getting better all the time. His fly ball, liner and grounder authority were all over a full standard deviation harder than average last season, and his K rate is quite low for a power hitter. A climb in his walk rate should be expected, and that completes the MVP caliber package. Adjusted for batted ball authority, his 151 “Tru” Production+ outshines his 2021 134 wRC+.
SS Xander Bogaerts is right up there with Devers in terms of overall value. While he does get points for being a very capable defender at a premium position, he is nowhere near Devers’ class in terms of ball-striking. His authority marks are in the average range and his numbers have gotten more of a boost from his home park. His 2021 123 “Tru” Production+ fell short of his 130 wRC+.
DH J.D. Martinez isn’t quite what he used to be, but he remains a big part of the Sox offense. His thunder in the air and his K/BB profile have come back to the pack a bit, but he still racks up liners annually and hits them very hard, driving the ball to all fields. He’ll likely steadily decline from his 2021 123 “Tru” Production+ level, but is still worthy of a middle-of-the-order spot in a contenders’ lineup.
The Sox lineup is chock full of solid complementary players. LF Alex Verdugo is an OBP-based performer in a lineup of sluggers, and with an increased fly ball rate, has the thump to run into 20+ homers of his own. The versatile Enrique Hernandez is a capable up-the-middle defender at both 2B and in CF, and can carry a club when he gets hot. 1B Bobby Dalbec was on fire in the second half and has earned another shot in the lineup. He hits a ton of fly balls while rarely popping up - a desirable trait. C Christian Vazquez and 2B Christian Arroyo are functional semi-regulars who provide enough offense relative to their positions. LF/DH Kyle Schwarber provided a huge boost to the offense in his half-season in Boston, but is likely headed elsewhere in free agency.
I’d be remiss to not mention the fine season provided by RHP Nick Pivetta in the rotation. He gave the club 30 competent starts, and though in a perfect world he’ll have a lesser role moving forward. he’s as good a bet as any pitcher to rack up 100 innings for the 2022 Sox. He’s a big pop up generator who misses plenty of bats, posting a solid 98 Adjusted Contact Score and 90 “Tru” ERA- last season.
DOWN ON THE FARM
The Sox moved yet another solid complementary regular, RF Hunter Renfroe, to the Brewers to help restock their farm earlier this offseason, with 3B Alex Binelas the key piece of the return.
Overall, the Sox system is below average in terms of near-term MLB impact. LF Jarren Duran will be given every opportunity to win the LF job this spring, moving Verdugo to RF. He’s a risk/reward type with power upside. 2B Nick Yorke is knifing quickly through the minors, and his advanced tools evoke Dustin Pedroia comparisons. 1B Triston Casas has big power and a better pure hit tool than Dalbec, and could get a shot later this year if the incumbent again falters. SS/2B Jeter Downs had rough 2021 season, but has the raw tools to re-emerge on the prospect radar this season.
The pickings are much slimmer on the pitching side. RHP Victor Santos doesn’t have the body or the arsenal of a big-time pitching prospect, but he just keeps getting hitters out, most recently at Double-A. RHP Brayan Bello offers a strong three-pitch mix and solid command and could earn an MLB look sometime this season. Keep an eye on LHP Chris Murphy. The late-bloomer has refined his mechanics and command and has edged his way into the club’s MLB picture.
OFFSEASON FOCUS
Unlike most of the big-budget clubs, the Red Sox likely have done most of their offseason work. Rodon is the big name most worthy of their attention, though it wouldn’t be shocking to see an innings-type veteran like Zack Greinke brought aboard.
