Despite the threat of being subjected to a high-profile election night toppling, Boris Johnson has vowed to stand again in his precarious Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. Yet should the former prime minister have a change of heart and decide to head for a safe seat that he knows well, plans are being made by rival parties to make life difficult for him.
The tempting prospect of returning to Henley has emerged, after the sitting MP announced in the last few days that he would not be seeking re-election in the Oxfordshire constituency. John Howell has held the seat since 2008, inheriting it from Johnson when he left to become London mayor.
On the off-chance that Johnson decides to head for safer ground on his old turf, local activists are already preparing for an anti-Johnson campaign. Leaflets are being designed and the launch of a “beat Boris” fundraising campaign is set to be unveiled by the local Liberal Democrats, who are the main challengers in the seat.
Although the Tory poll ratings remain in the doldrums, Henley is a much safer Tory seat than Uxbridge, where Johnson won a 7,000-vote majority at the last election. Labour believes that its national polling strength, combined with demographic changes in the seat, could help it secure a huge moment at the next election by ousting Johnson. Henley, meanwhile, returned a Tory majority twice that size in 2019.
Enthusiastic local Lib Dem activists have dubbed their campaign, which is being aided by the central party, “Operation Yellowhammer”. They believe that despite the 14,000 majority, the big Lib Dem increase at the last election – combined with Johnson’s increasingly divisive reputation – could make him vulnerable to an appeal to “kick Johnson out of parliament once and for all”. South Oxfordshire council is already one of the party’s targets in May’s local elections, where it is fighting to take overall control.
“If Boris Johnson thinks doing a chicken run to Henley will help save his skin, he’s got another thing coming,” said a party source. “That would show just how much Johnson and other Conservative MPs are taking voters in the ‘blue wall’ for granted. The Lib Dems have already shown we can beat the Conservatives in their former heartlands. We’ve got a strong ground campaign in Oxfordshire and will fight tooth and nail to kick Boris Johnson out of parliament once and for all.”
There is still the possibility that Johnson may be forced to search for another seat if he is ousted from Uxbridge as a result of a parliamentary inquiry into his claims over Partygate. The former prime minister is being investigated over whether he misled MPs about Downing St parties and has already faced a bruising grilling from the privileges committee examining the issue.
Should parliament vote to suspend him from the Commons for more than 10 days, his constituents will be given the chance to recall him as their MP and replace him in a byelection. However, he would be free to stand again in the byelection, or seek a different seat.
Some of Johnson’s allies have also speculated privately that he would be better off relocating to Mid Bedfordshire, the constituency soon to be vacated by Nadine Dorries, one of his most loyal supporters.
Dorries is widely expected to be made a peer in Johnson’s resignation honours list, which is yet to emerge. Her seat is one of the Tories’ safest.
A spokesperson for the former prime minister said: “Boris Johnson is standing in Uxbridge and South Ruislip at the next general election and was recently reselected as the Conservative candidate there.”
Johnson has spent his time since leaving office making millions of pounds through speeches and appearances, as well as being handed a large advance for his memoirs. His most recent appearance was in Lagos, Nigeria, where he joked that he was, in effect, fined during the Partygate scandal for standing up and eating lunch at his desk for 20 minutes. Johnson received earnings, hospitality and donations worth more than £5m in the first six months after leaving office.
